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ReachTEL: Liberal 47, Labor 24, Greens 18 in Tasmania

The latest ReachTEL survey suggests the die is well and truly cast for next Saturday's Tasmanian state election.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 2600 respondents conducted last night for The Mercury shows the Tasmanian state election situation much as it’s been for a very long time now, with the Liberals on a commanding 47.4% (up 0.2% from the last poll on February 13) and Labor on a dismal 23.6% (down 1.0%). The Greens are on 18.2%, up 1.0% on last time, while the Palmer United Party is down 0.8% to 6.7%. Electorate breakdowns and other detail presumably to follow in tomorrow’s paper.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham has detailed results and better-informed analysis than I would be able to manage.

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67 comments

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Psephos
Guest
There now seems to be a drift away from the Coalition in every state, at state and federal level, as a result (one must assume) of Abbott’s unpopularity, EXCEPT in Tasmania. I assume this is because Labor has been in for SO long and their record has been SO mediocre for so long that nothing will persuade the voters to give them another gallop. I blame Bartlett for this. He swore before the last election he would not go into coalition with the Greens, then after the election he immediately did just that. Now no-one believes anything Labor says. He… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

Half-time score from Newspoll of 53% for Liberals removes the last plausible hope – that the other polls are too Liberal-friendly.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/newspoll-to-deliver-final-nail.html

Kevin Bonham
Guest
ifonly
Guest

I wonder if the education imperative happens where there is greater income disparity. When I think of many country towns, NT and Tasmania, many communities don’t have the competitive drive that you would see in many communities in Sydney and Melbourne.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

William Bowe@54

The two photos I use in 2018 will, as always, be of the Premier and the Leader of the Opposition.

We could even get plural leaders of the opposition after this election! (I personally think it’s unlikely).

Dingbat The First
Guest

Blaming teachers unions for the state of education is bollocks. The single biggest factor in a child’s educational outcome is their home situation. That’s not the fault of the AEU. Most teachers teach regardless of whatever nonsense is peddled by politicians, parents, bureaucrats or unions.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

I am not a fan of gambling hence I am an former chess player.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Edi_Mahin@59

It seems Kevin Bonham has not only been analyzing polls very well but he has analyzing chess positions very well, well enough to be the 2014 Tasmanian Chess Champion. Congratulations Kevin.

Thankyou! I’m quite amazed to find a mention of that here.

Braddon in election-sign terms is a sea of blue with a few notable enclaves of yellow. Not a lot of red and green in sight.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

It seems Kevin Bonham has not only been analyzing polls very well but he has analyzing chess positions very well, well enough to be the 2014 Tasmanian Chess Champion. Congratulations Kevin.

Socrates
Guest

Tom

Fair enough re Gay. But the way Labor obsessively pursued the pulp mill like it was some jobs savior, which it never was, throwing good process out the window, was aweful.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

56

While all criminal trials in Australia happen in criminal courts, insider trading is a Commonwealth offence that is prosecuted by Commonwealth authorities (the Commonwealth DPP/ASIC) and so it is not a wholly Tasmanian issue.

Socrates
Guest
Coast, Magic Pudding I travelled to Tassie for work a few years ago (starting over ten years ago) and in the time from Bacon as premier to mid last decade I would agree good things were happening in the Tassie economy and policy. But I think things have gone downhill since then. The whole Gunns debacle casts Labor and the bureaucracy in a poor light. Gay wasn’t even jailed for blatant insider traading. You have to appreciate that back then Tassie was propped up by Federal tax dollars a lot, now even more so. Virtually no major project was built… Read more »
MagicPudding
Guest
Socrates @51 A few comments on your comments. 1. I agree with Meher’s comments @ 20; I don’t think the quality of our politicians and bureaucrats is unusually bad. We have never had a government as viciously stupid as certain Queensland governments, or as openly corrupt as various NSW administrations. Our governments are simply faced with difficult problems, some of them, such as lack of economies of scale and the transport problems of being an island, unique to Tasmania. The present Premier, Lara Giddings, is a good example. She strikes me as both intelligent and dedicated. She speaks well and… Read more »
Coast
Guest
I notice William Bowe’s montage of ‘Tasmania state election’ contains no photo of the Greens leader, despite the Greens representing a quarter of the seats in parliament and being a recognised political party in parliament in terms of seat representation for 12 years now? If the election result determines the Greens as the second largest party will your 2018 montage reflect that by excluding the Labor leader? This election to me will go down in history as the one where media organisations have not too subtlety tried to whitewash the Greens from existence or importance, especially via mischievous reporting and… Read more »
Coast
Guest
I feel Tasmania of late is being used as a punching bag by mainland economic rationalists and desperate conservative politicians looking to cling on to a story to promote their own agendas. Any reading of economic indices of late shows Tasmania in a strong position and one of recovery. We also not too long ago came out of a decade long run of economic “prosperity” which included budget surpluses and a period of economic growth which bettered the national average with the lowest unemployment rate in the country plus the highest rates of investment and property price rises, amongst other… Read more »
Socrates
Guest
Interested in the comments on the collective failure of Labor, Green and Liberal economic policy in Tassie. Certainly a lot of blame to go around. A few comments: 1 The Tassie government and bureaucracy both need a cleanout. Clearly nobody is giving good advice to the idiots in charge. A bit like SA education and health 🙁 2 You can forget Tassie being economic for any large scale manufacturing production or smelting or pulp mill. Pie in the sky. Too remote, too expensive, too few economies of scale. 3 There is nothing wrong with sustainable forestry or fishing, but that… Read more »
Paul Austin
Guest

Psephos: Karl Marx’s beard looks like he just glued his own pubes to his face…

MagicPudding
Guest
Lefty, I think the illiteracy problem is overstated. I worked as a collector in the last census, in a rural area. I did not encounter anyone who was unable to read the census material or understand notes I left them. There might have been a few who were assisted by friends or relatives, but certainly nothing like half. I think the bar for “functional literacy” has been set a bit high. I note that by the same measure, 44.4% of Australians are functionally illiterate. Tasmania is the worst state, but not by a huge margin – Tasmania 48.5%, SA 47.2%… Read more »
lefty e
Guest

My Mum, a former teacher, lives in Tas.

She informs me that thre’s 50% illiteracy rate among adults (no, really – its the friggin 3rd world) and school formals are generally still at the end of year 10, when most people leave school.

Seriously folks, the wood you cant see for the trees is some major underinvestmet in education.

Once people’s ambitions rise above the economically near-dead forest industry, and include the ability to read, the rest will take care of itself.

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