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South Australian election minus one week

Introducing a guide to the election for the Legislative Council, plus some updates from around the grounds.

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With exactly a week to go, two general matters to relate:

• The Poll Bludger state election guide now comes equipped with a comprehensive review of the Legislative Council.

• Jay Weatherill and Steven Marshall squared off for the Advertiser/Sky News People’s Forum debate on Tuesday night. One hundred undecided voters chosen by Galaxy Research, as per the much-complained-about Rooty Hill RSL event during the 2010 federal election, had 38% rating Jay Weatherill the winner compared with 28% for Steven Marshall, the remaining 38% being uncommitted. All three of The Advertiser’s commentators concurred that Weatherill had the edge, although Daniel Wills’ analysis piece was headlined “Premier fails to deliver a knockout”.

And six electorate-level campaign updates:

Adelaide (Liberal 4.2%): A Galaxy automated phone poll of 587 respondents conducted on Tuesday evening for The Advertiser had Labor trailing 54-46 in the one seat which they had entertained hopes of poaching from the Liberals. The primary votes were 49% for Liberal incumbent Rachel Sanderson, 39% for Labor candidate David O’Louglin, 8% for the Greens and 4% for Dignity for Disability. Sanderson had an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 26%, closely reflecting the ratings for Labor’s Paul Caica at a similar poll conducted last week in Colton. The poll also inquired about the parties’ competing plans for the future of the Royal Adelaide Hospital site, with 38% favouring Labor’s idea of a new public high school and 35% preferring the Liberals’ idea for a privately run medical facility.

Giles (Labor 11.9%): The Advertiser reported yesterday that Eddie Hughes, Labor’s candidate for the Whyalla-based seat of Giles, was given a seven-day suspended jail sentence in 1983 for assaulting a police officer, resisting arrest and loitering, following an incident which occurred “in the early hours outside a Whyalla hotel”. As the Liberals accused Labor of having concealed the fact from voters, Labor said it was aware of the arrest but not the specific court outcome.

Torrens (Labor 8.2%): Labor hit back with the revelation that Liberal candidate for Torrens, Michael Manetta, had a criminal conviction from 1997 for driving three times over the blood alcohol limit, leaving Steven Marshall to tell journalists he was “not aware of that”.

Lee (Labor 7.7%): Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley has ordered the Liberal Party to withdraw and air a retraction for a radio advertisement it paid for and authorised which was voiced by Mel Calone, an independent who is campaigning against the government over its handling of the school sex abuse issue. Calone said Jay Weatherill “chose not to tell parents” about the rape of a seven-year-old school student, which was at odds with the findings of the Debelle royal commmission.

Hartley (Labor 0.1%): Nick Xenophon has provided Labor’s Grace Portolesi with a message of support to distribute to voters in her knife-edge marginal seat, in which she is describing as “an outstanding local member in getting things done”.

Colton (Labor 3.6%): The Liberals have promised to spend $6.8 million on a science centre for Henley High School, to be completed in 2018.

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78 comments

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Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
I’ve had some interesting feedback today about certain electorates, in no particular order: * Jay Weatherill campaigning in the seat of Torrens – which should be safe Labor – is something going on there? * The Habib leaflet – the ALP have faced internal dissension over this leaflet going out – some on their campaign team are deeply ashamed at the dog whistling. So much for the Premier’s weak denials. As far as Cory Bernardi goes, the sooner someone mails him one way to postcode 7151 the better. * One of Portolesi’s (ALP, Hartley) campaign team last night injudiciously spilled… Read more »
Socrates
Guest
I do not see the Labor pamphlet against Habib as obviously racist, but that is why they call it dog whistle politics. At best it is a nastily personal smear/fear campaign, that blames Habib for something she had little control over. So, racist or not, the pamphlet is tacky desperation politics – a sure sign Labor knows it will lose. End result: Habib will romp in on the sympathy vote alone. That also makes it dumb politics. I predict Labor will lose 6 or 7 seats and Marshall will have a majority of 5 or 6, depending on how the… Read more »
spur212
Guest

Edi

I live in Bright. Most of the communication down here from Chloe Fox is very personalised and friendly, reminding the electorate of her achievements. I’d say from the tone of them she thinks she’s a goner. Hardly attacked Speirs.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

What does John Howard’s hair and the SA Liberals have in common?

Both are deeply divided down the middle.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

David Speirs is on the same council as Carolyn Habib.

Why haven’t we seen a ‘Can we trust Speirs?’ leaflet?

One answer is that the battle for Bright is all over and Chloe Fox has lost.

spur212
Guest

By the way, the pamphlet was really low from the ALP. I can just picture the meeting discussing it’s implementation. UGH!

spur212
Guest

This pamphlet thing is a classic example of what’s wrong with the Liberals in this state. They’ve decided it’s a major embarrassment for the ALP and so they’ve tried to make the big play on it but it’s ended up in a discussion about whether the pamphlet was or wasn’t racist and suddenly they’re divided again.

This happens again and again and again over here. It’s both funny and sad.

And people wonder why conservatives in this state frequently split from the party and become Family First or Independent or even god forbid Democrat!

Edi_Mahin
Guest

So the Liberals are claiming the Habib pamphlet is racist, except Cory Bernardi has not got the memo. He has said
[“How is using anyone’s surname racist?” Senator Bernardi told the ABC.

“I look forward to someone explaining how it’s racist to use someone’s surname.”]

So Labor and Cory Bernardi are arguing the same thing.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/carolyn-habib-claims-pamphlett-racist/5316018

Diogenes
Guest

TT

ROTFLOL

Toorak Toff
Guest

This is only peripherally related to the election but ….

My octogenarian friend took his visiting older brother to the Torrens Weir Restaurant last night. They drove across a bridge over the Torrens but couldn’t get out the other end and had to turn around and come back to the Adelaide Railway Station.

Yes, my mate is the first motorist to drive across the famous $40 million footbridge to Adelaide Oval!

Hilarious.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Dignity for Disabled are a progressive party and their upper house preferences flow progressively too. I don’t know how their lower house how-to-vote cards (if they have any) guide voters but I daresay they generally recommend a left to right flow and probably Labor over Liberal.

Rational Leftist
Guest
Thanks for the confirmation IT. I had seen reports of it all over Twitter from Labor and Labor supporting commentators but nothing from the Liberals. No wonder; it wasn’t exactly a bright idea. As for the anti-Habib pamphlet. I can very clearly see the racist subtext of the design of the pamphlet… mainly the wall design which looks like it’s from a warzone – which, with a middle-eastern candidate name, has very obvious implications. However, it’s vague enough that it can’t be definitely called racist either and many voters will probably just see that complaint as over-sensitive “political correctness gone… Read more »
spur212
Guest

I voted Dignity for Disabled in the upper house. Kelly Vincent is superb! I don’t care who they preferenced

Edi_Mahin
Guest

D4D preferences go to a variety of minor parties with no hope of winning.
Powerful Communities and then Multicultural Party if either are still in the count when/if D4D are excluded.
Eventually the Greens before any of the other main candidates.
They have Family First last.

Psephos
Guest

Diogenes, thanks. Where do D4D’s preferences go?

Diogenes
Guest

Occasional PB contributor still fighting the fight

[A STATE election candidate from the northern suburbs is facing court on a gun charge and plans to sue the State Government for up to $100,000 over what he claims was a false arrest.

Independent Legislative Council candidate Mark Aldridge — son of Salisbury Mayor Gillian Aldridge — will face the Elizabeth Magistrates Court next month to defend one count of breaching the conditions of his gun licence.]

Toorak Toff
Guest

Alleged racist dog-whistling pamphlet in Elder: CAN YOU TRUST HABIB?

Pyne says Labor’s always up to dirty tricks and the Libs are squeaky clean. No memory of federal Lindsay in 2007?

Diogenes
Guest

Psephos

I will be voting Dignity for the Disabled in the Upper House.

I really don’t care who wins the election but I will be voting Labor in the lower house.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

More electorate-based polling data would be useful. In Tas we’re drenched in the stuff!

Psephos
Guest

Diogenes, are you going to tell us before Saturday who you will be voting for? You don’t have to, of course, but I’m genuinely curious. After several years of sparring with you here I still have no idea what political principles, if any, you adhere to.

Diogenes
Guest

There is waaaay too much on in Adelaide in March.

That’s part of the reason noone gives a shit about the election.

It’s great is you are the incumbent and want to fly under the radar and point to all the shiny things in SA.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

CM @ 55

The move of the public holiday back to May was announced by Marshall at a press conference on Friday (I think) – I saw him on the Channel 9 news saying it would be better for Racing SA.

My wife said at the time something about, “Good for racing – f*^% the Festival” which is pretty much what Labor has retorted with.

Dumb idea I thought, a policy gaffe.

Rational Leftist
Guest

I see Labor have released their costings and are touting smaller costs than the Liberals and a return to surplus in a few years… how long before there’s another leak that contradicts that?

Rational Leftist
Guest

It seems to be going around that the Liberals want to move the March public holiday back to May. Can anybody verify it? (It seems like a really stupid idea TBH)

Toorak Toff
Guest

Surprised to receive a union robo-call in just about the safest Liberal seat in SA.

In other news:

– Labor has promised a $6 million update for the Henley Beach Police Station (in Colton).

– Kris Hanna has exposed and the Electoral Commissioner apologised for gibberish masquerading as Arabic in more than a million voting ‘information’ pamphlets distributed across the electorate. As Hanna points out, they only had four years to get it right.

Dingbat The First
Guest

I’m not sure the lovers of democracy are swooning over the current state of things as it is. I suspect a senate with Xenophon in it is more democratic than one without.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

It is all a bit crazy, people not liking the majors, looking for someone to vote for, deciding they like Nick Xenophon and therefore voting for Darley. Makes total sense.
These are people who probably would not even vote if there was not so-called compulsory voting.
What would the turn out be at this election if it was voluntary voting?
A nightmare for the lovers of democracy is my guess.

Wakefield
Guest

Labor would have to be doing fairly poorly for them to have Maher contesting with Greens for last spot. Labor and Greens will be looking at 5 seats between them – 4 Labor and 1 Green. Given Labor is preferencing Greens with any surplus it would be ridiculous for Labor to be criticising Greens.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

EM

I think you might be onto something there. I think the campaign is pretty weak and all it is doing is giving Mr X and his coat tail hangers some free publicity they would not have otherwise got.

Not a good sign for the majors when the 20 yr old lady in my local pokies palace tells patrons she’s voting for Nick X’s team…

Edi_Mahin
Guest
Nick Xenophon voters have probably already decided they are not going to vote for either major party and are looking for somewhere to park their vote. The danger is that in driving people away from the X-team they drive them to the Greens. As in some scenarios the Greens and Maher are fighting for last seat it way well be that this campaign hurts Maher rather then helping him. It might also drive people to the Liberals perhaps giving them a 5th seat. The X team is an opponent, but if they want to help Maher it might be more… Read more »
spur212
Guest

LOL IT

I bet they’re doing a bit of a stealth campaign in workplaces too

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

The SA Unions campaign is actually paid for and organised by United Voice (formerly known as the Liquor etc Union) and whose former State Secretary is Kyam Maher MLC who is in the unenviable position of 4th on the Labor ticket.

Obviously they believe cutting the X-Team vote will help Kyam over the line.

They would have evidence for that I think – and part of that would come from research that shows Mr X is popular amongst newly enrolled teen voters – the types in casual jobs covered by the SDA and UV…but I didn’t reveal that, sssh!!!

spur212
Guest

Dio

Probably right (as usual)

Edi_Mahin
Guest

I think everyone thinks the Liberals are going to win, perhaps they are even voting for the Liberals but they are not looking forward to a Liberal win with any sort expectation of something good. They just see it as passing the baton from a government who has run its course, and needs to be replaced, with a opposition that inspires no confidence. No real hope of improvement.

Diogenes
Guest

spur

[The Advertiser has been shockingly bad during this campaign.]

I think the Tiser is just reflecting the general lack of interest in the election.

There really isn’t much interest in what happens. It’s not that people dislike both their choices (like in the last two Fed election), they just don’t care.

Wakefield
Guest

IT, EM, Socrates. The Darley vote is hard to predict. I certainly don’t see them getting near a quoata – maybe 5 -6% would be a fair guess. The figures suggested by someone might just be someone’s guess. Doubt anyone will bother to do serious polling – any evidence that is happening?

Socrates – Unions SA campaign might raise Darley vote but if it does not by increasing % of the Darley from from Liberals it might not be a bad result. I assume Unions SA want to warn their supprters to be careful with Darley option?

Edi_Mahin
Guest

spur212, maybe it will push people towards the X-team but maybe they have found a weakness to exploit.

Will an attack on someone not running as a candidate in the election really work?

Not sure it is really a good thing if it does work.

Edi_Mahin
Guest
On ITs rumored figures it looks like 4 Liberal, 3 Labor, 1 FF(Hood), 1 X-Team(Darley) for 9. The last two seats seems to be a toss up between Labor and Greens for a seat and 1 seat for a preference snowballer, PC(Henley), MP(Nguyen) or D4D(Simbi). Perhaps backing up the fact X-team is polling well is the fact I just got a phone call from SA Unions. It did two things, 1. Attempt to link Abbott and Marshall as it seems Abbott is viewed as a negative for the Liberals. 2. Attack Nick Xenophon on weekend penalty rates. I live in… Read more »
spur212
Guest

The Advertiser has been shockingly bad during this campaign. Not so much bias (which you’d expect), but just pure laziness. I’ve got all my information on the campaign from the ABC

spur212
Guest

Looks like SA Unions have decided to wage a full scale war on Xenophon during the final week. I just got a robocall advertisement from them and new corflutes are up all over the place mocking his campaign’s cartoon corflutes by saying he’ll support cutting penalty rates. I think, if anything, this will just push people further to the “X-Team” but we shall see

Edi_Mahin
Guest

IT, interesting, I certainly have not been giving Darley enough votes then. I put those numbers in and had to fiddle the 1% and under up a bit more than I would have liked.
First time I get 4 liberal, 4 Labor, FF, Henley and Darley.
No Greens but razor thin between them and the 4th Labor for the last spot.
The ratio of Labor, Liberal, Greens and FF has been about what I have been using by a little lower for all of them to allow for the higher Darley/X-team vote

Socrates
Guest
This is the sum total of Marshall promises in an email mailout today. [If elected, a Marshall Liberal Government will: cap council rates, saving families almost $200 a year; increase energy and water concession payments, reducing the cost of energy and water for around 200,000 concession recipients; abolish the Save the River Murray Levy, keeping the expenditure on the River Murray in place, but saving 570,000 households $42 a year from 2016-17; ensure water rates do not increase above CPI for the next two years; scrap the REES scheme to bring your power bills down; abolish land tax for 16,000… Read more »
Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
EM I have the X-Team on 8.5% mean, but they are safe once they get to around 7.2% as they will pick up (just) enough preferences from some rats and mice to squeak across the line. I heard a rumour on Saturday that someone (I was told whom) had done some upper house polling and ALP were on 3.5 quotas, Libs on 4.5 and X-Team on just under 1 with FF on 1/2 of one and Greens on 3/4 of one. After that they reckon D4D was on 1.5% and all others 1% or less. Can’t verify source as my… Read more »
Edi_Mahin
Guest

Are we going to get any more polls before the election?
There seems to have been very few so far.

Swing Required
Guest

Rex Jory in the Tiser today says that Steven Marshall hasn’t been put under any scrutiny due to a disaffected electorate and “an overworked media”!

Even for The Advertiser, I doubt I’ve read a weaker excuse for laziness, bias or just dumb media.

Edi_Mahin
Guest
Looking at closely Henley/Powerful communities needs to get more votes than at least one of the Animal Justice Party or Independent Your Voice matters initially and then use the preferences of the one he is ahead of to get past the other one. If he does that he is extremely likely to get a seat. There might be other ways to victory to Henley but that looks like the most likely. If he doesn’t then the Multicultural Party will get the preferences of Joseph Masika and Mark Aldridge Alliance if they get more votes than either of them. This should… Read more »
Edi_Mahin
Guest
IT, I have played around some more and still not seeing the MP getting up, I don’t seem to be getting them to .2 of quota . At the moment I am getting 4 Liberal and 3 Labor first then exclusions start that lifts PC up through every to be elected 8th on the exclusion of Darley. Then the overflow from PC gets both the 5th Liberal and FF’s Hood up in 9th and 10th. That leaves a razor thin margin between Greens and Labor for the last seat, sometimes less than 100 votes. I am boosting the two fishing… Read more »
Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
EM, I got the MP up every time on 0.5% regardless of what other rats and mice were on. When they dropped below .5% then either Henley got up, or ALP 4th, or even once Your Voice Matters – but from memory I think that was when I gave them 1.3% instead of their 1% mean. Let’s face it, we are using scientific methods but using made up variables so really it is educated guesswork. And I totes agree (as the kids would say) on the BTL votes but I think the candidates who can attract a lot of these… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

So the sum total of the Liberal campaign is…. to reduce water levies? Wow! That will fix everything.

I fear Labor will still lose, but at this point Labor is certainly winning the campaign.

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