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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 10, 2014

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

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GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

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1524 comments

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WeWantPaul
Guest
So long as the land tax used market value as the base and not GRV or unimproved value I’m 100% with it. It is fair it is smart it is efficient and also has a positive impact on all those horrible unused bits of land in cities where the holding costs are sufficient to force the owner to develop or sell. If it was phased in correctly it would have relatively little impact on the lower and middle markets in real estate. You could also have a mechanism to save the little old lady living in a hovel worth $20… Read more »
Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Want to fix state govt budgets?

Want to deflate the housing bubble and prevent it from happening again?

Want the greatest beneficiaries from public goods (transport, road improvements, good local schools and health services) to contribute the most to funding them?

Get the states to implement a decent land tax, on everyone.

State govt funding problems. Fixed.
Equity issues. Sorted.
Fiscal imbalance. Gone.
GST. 10%.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[Doesn’t an exise on fuel achieve exactly the same thing, without the need for gadgets?
]

The current system requires rebates which those entitled to are worried will be removed – just a guess but this idea may have come from that corner. I’m not sure the GST is meant to deliver income tax or bracket benefits to people – firstly it has to fund the deficit then it needs to fund a 2% income tax rate cut for business.

Steve777
Guest

And none of it will have anything to do with Joe Hockey. It will all belong to Labor.

No – the rule is, since September 18, the good stuff belongs to the current Government, the bad stuff belongs to the previous Government, for as long as the Coalition can get away with it.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

WA infrastructure funding

comment image

sprocket_
Guest

chris uhlmann is starting to make his mark on ABC AM

first question to Will Hodgman this morning: “How will you get Tasmania back to work?”

first question to Lara Giddings “Why has your government been such a failure?”

zoomster
Guest
[Consumer confidence has collapsed, sliding to its lowest point since the Gillard prime ministership as Labor supporters despair about jobs, the economy and business profitability. The latest result, a consumer sentiment index number of 99.5 means pessimists outweigh optimists by 0.5 percentage points, the first time that has happened since May 2013. It’s a spectacular dive from the November post-election high of 110.3 where optimists outweighed pessimists by 10.3 percentage points..] As is often the case, we can’t work out from this whether those surveyed were Labor supporters at the last election or have become Labor supporters BECAUSE of their… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

Good Morning

@AP: MORE: Satellite images on Chinese government website may show debris from missing plane: http://t.co/ti42I8yfkL

China publicly releasing images. Must be furious with Malaysia

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Hockeys dilemma The latest national accounts figures show a growing economy; 0.8% for the December quarter. That’s a much better result than the September quarter’s 0.6%. The Treasurer says it is still below trend of 3-3.25% per annum but he was being cautious. Considering all the doom and gloom he was predicting prior to the election one would expect him to be guarded in what he said but, given this unexpected upturn, he must find the latest figures something of a dilemma. He should be over the moon but he knows he can’t take any credit for them because he… Read more »
Fran Barlow
Guest
Socrates [At present we struggle because governments imagine user pays can fix everything. It can’t. Some necessary works are not viable as toll roads, and public transport almost never pays for itself. We need to tax more to pay for essential services too.] Oh I agree. Major roads, assuming there’s a case for them in each proposed instance, really ought to be publicly funded, because one of the things governments can generally do better than the private sector is raising cheap funds. That said, I believe major connecting roads ought to be user pays based on vehicle tare, the driver… Read more »
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

All the talk about GST being increased or broadened brings to mind the analogy of the frog in a pot on the stove.

zoomster
Guest
I’ll just point out that the tax free threshold is now much higher than it was. You can’t compensate (true) pensioners, those on government payments, and low income earners by raising the tax free threshold, just as giving them tax rebates is pretty pointless, too. You could raise pensions etc to compensate, but even then you’d miss people on low incomes who don’t get government assistance (perhaps increasing health card benefits might help here, though). Anyhoo, apparentlty the Producitivy Committee has a proposal — [Asked by Treasurer Joe Hockey to investigate impediments to infrastructure funding, the Productivity Commission has zeroed… Read more »
poroti
Guest

pom + CTar1

According to the posted info our OP is due in Christmas Island ‘ETA 2014-03-15 19:00 UTC’. Last position received 11/03/2014.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/503630000

Steve777
Guest

Lizzie @1508 – politically difficult? Probably impossible. It might be easier for the Coalition because they would have the Murdoch media campaigning for them, emphasising the compensation, as happened with the GST (Daily Telegraph headlines ‘everyone’s a winner’), unlike carbon pricing.

poroti
Guest

pom

[
I was notified over night that Ocean Protector is now berthed in Messina]
That is a different Ocean Protector. ‘Our’ OP was last seen up in Singapore on the 11th March. Last time it visited Singapore was to collect those rescue boats . Have we used them all up already ?

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:103.924/centery:1.215667/zoom:8/oldmmsi:503630000/olddate:lastknown#

lizzie
Guest

Steve777

I’m remembering that compensation was paid at the introduction of the carbon price, but that has been ignored in all the then Opposition shouting “Carbon Tax”. Politically difficult??

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Govt having revenue problems? It could reinstate the tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 a year, or re-introduce the tightening up of FBT to sop the rorts that would provide $1.9 billion. Or keep the current carbon price legislation that provides the revenue to pay the $4.5 billion a year tax cuts and compensation. Then look again at the 34(?) changes that Labor were going to introduce that Abbott stopped. They could also look at improving the MRRT so it collected a proper amount of revenue. The Liberals whinging about reduced revenue when they have reduced the revenue to help… Read more »
Steve777
Guest

I think the argument that the GST is regressive isn’t as strong these days. Income tax is easy to avoid for the wealthy, detracting from the ‘progressive’ aspect of income tax. However, eventually everyone, even the wealthy, have to spend, and they can’t buy their petrol or flat screen TVs in the Cayman Islands.

If we do have a problem with the budget, a small increase in the GST plus broadening the base, with compensatory adjustments for low income earners (e.g pensions, tax free threshold) should be considered.

Socrates
Guest

Have a good day all.

Socrates
Guest

Fran

Then it could be increased for a combination of an increase in transfer payments and the tax free threshold. Both should be looked at together to avoid anomalies. But I agree with your general principle of taxing more and transferring more.

The same is true for infrastructure spending. At present we struggle because governments imagine user pays can fix everything. It can’t. Some necessary works are not viable as toll roads, and public transport almost never pays for itself. We need to tax more to pay for essential services too.

Steve777
Guest

Re Mikehillard @1299 Frightening how the whole “boats” issue has vanished from the media except for the odd lone voice.

Out of sight out of mind.

Fran Barlow
Guest
Socrates [I would be happy for the GST to be increased in exchange for a simple increase in the tax free threshold.] I wouldn’t agree there. Many low income people simply don’t submit tax returns for one reason or another. Also, their tax margin is too low to compensate them adequately. In the case of some low income families a cash payment won’t necessarily assist their dependants and moreover cash payments can decline in real value over time. Accordingly, I’d prefer most of the compensation benefits to be delivered in service with suitable needs-based assessment taking into account assets, income,… Read more »
lizzie
Guest

As a pensioner, I don’t mind if the GST rises as long as fresh food remains exempt, as this forms the major part of my groceries.

Socrates
Guest

Fran, thanks for the link. This use of the Government plane by Gillard is no better than what Brandis did.
[The log also shows that return flights for Ms Gillard and her former chief spin doctors, John McTernan and Eamonn Fitzpatrick from Canberra to NSW north coast town of Ballina in March cost $8970. The visit coincided with the Byron Bay wedding of Ms Gillard’s press secretary Laura Anderson and former treasurer Wayne Swan’s chief of staff, Jim Chalmers.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/how-the-sleepy-tasmanian-town-of-wynyard-became-part-of-the-pork-barrel-shuttle-20140312-34mkf.html#ixzz2vmi18c5m

Gillard was no doubt nicer to her factional friends than Rudd. But she was certainly not more ethical.

mikehilliard
Guest

Frightening how the whole “boats” issue has vanished from the media except for the odd lone voice.

Australian’s in general are obviously comfortable with their government running prison camps.

Boerwar
Guest

z
The administrative overheads for GST exemptions, variable rates depending on quality and variable rates depending on the status of the purchaser, and the like, are very large.

Socrates
Guest
Fran I cannot claim credit for Jackol’s views on the GST, but broadly agree with both of you. The GST can be effective in reducing regressive aspects of taxation, because it is so hard for wealthy individuals with low taxable income to avoid. This includes some pensioners who are asset millionaires. They need to pay more. I would be happy for the GST to be increased in exchange for a simple increase in the tax free threshold. Also the GST exemptions, while well intended, have led to distorions. We see all sorts of executive retreat nonsense branded as “education”. End… Read more »
ruawake
Guest

Good to hear Henry say Tax is the solution not the problem, about time someone called bullshit on the Liberals lies.

zoomster
Guest
What a GST can’t do (assuming we stick to the idea of a common rate being applied across goods and services) but which a wholesale tax can quite elegantly is ‘reward and punish’ consumers by applying a variable rate. For example, instead of public awareness campaigns, labelling and other indirect and sometimes clumsy methods, we could apply a tax to foods according to their nutritional benefits, with money raised going back to health services. Or, if there’s sound evidence that a particular trade is not paying its fair share of tax (because it’s operating cash in hand, for example) you… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

This story highlights an interesting social conflict in Israel. Ultra orthodox jew are (finally) losing their exemption from military service. It was ruled unconstitutional two years ago.
[Israel’s parliament has approved legislation that will end exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students.]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26542316

Fran Barlow
Guest
Fran Barlow
Guest
Socrates [I’m of 2 minds about the GST – I’d prefer to see progressive tax increases over the GST, but the GST did not prove to be the great devil for lower income earners that many on the left said it would be. Modest increases or broadening of the GST would not be a disaster for anyone and I think it probably is worth including in the mix to fix the revenue hole for government.] I’d broadly agree. Any maintainable system of raising funds for community purposes will work best when it a) raises funds from a broad range of… Read more »
CTar1
Guest

pom

Ocean Protector – Yes, I can see it there on ‘Live Ships Map’.

It was a lease until our actual owned version was built and delivered. That’s been in Sydney for some months and we can assume now accepted and delivered.

OP will have a name change coming up now it’s back in its owners hands. Possibly revert to ‘MSV Skandi Bergen’.

BK
Guest

And from the Land of the Free –

Washington State’s experience sinks the Repugs’ argument against a rise in the minimum wage.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/03/12/raising-minimum-wage-doesnt-hurt-economy-ask-washington-state/
An amazing robot plays table tennis against a champion. A great KUKA advertisment.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017180615

Fran Barlow
Guest

Brandis gives a new twist to the idea of ‘picking winners’ threatening to pull arts funding from bodies that reject private sponsorship:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/sydney-biennale-shame-risks-funding-says-george-brandis/story-fn59niix-1226853051859#mm-premium

Jackol
Guest
Ken Henry’s interview on 7.30 was excellent. You don’t have to agree with his point of view in all respects to find him impressive. I’m of 2 minds about the GST – I’d prefer to see progressive tax increases over the GST, but the GST did not prove to be the great devil for lower income earners that many on the left said it would be. Modest increases or broadening of the GST would not be a disaster for anyone and I think it probably is worth including in the mix to fix the revenue hole for government. He was… Read more »
pom
Guest

I was notified over night that Ocean Protector is now berthed in Messina

Socrates
Guest

[Is Fiona Nash really THAT hopeless or is she merely an instrument?]
You do not need much brains to be a Sarah Palin clone. She is a country farmers wife who was a serial dog whistle blower in opposition. You could have asked the same question about Stephen Conroy in the Gillard cabonet. The answer is Yes in both cases.

BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

MUST SEE! Alan Moir with a proud Popeye Abbott. Oh so true!
comment image
Cathy Wilcox with a good one. (I’ve tried this with a specialist and it didn’t fly!)
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
David Pope has Abbott riding into the ACT on his crusade.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
MUST SEE! David Rowe with a beautiful depiction of Ken Henry and his wombats.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

BK
Guest
Otiose
Guest

→ → 13/03/2014 03:45 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/1lWwUho

paaptsef
Guest
davidwh
Guest

It’s probably a moot point anyway because I doubt any government will have the courage to seriously put proper tax reform on the agenda and the community as a whole lacks the maturity to discuss the issue effectively and is prone to reacting to fear, mostly perceived rather than real.

Modern politics is killing any chance of mature debate.

zoidlord
Guest

@davidwh/1477

Let’s see Japan handles it’s increase first.

zoidlord
Guest

Except the argument surrounding taxes, has become too clouded by both sides of the debate.

Also, one spends, while the other sells.

fredex
Guest

The GST should be abolished.

It is a regressive tax.

It was only proposed and finally introduced by conservative right wing governments because they were and still are too scared to propose or enact taxation from a basis of fairness equity and ability to pay.
The screams would be heard in London.

I should note that inequality and poverty in Australia are both increasing and drastically need addressing – but won’t be.

davidwh
Guest

Centre there were/are a range of causes to the structural deficit issue and yes income tax is part of the mix. So is increases in welfare at all income levels. Also I never suggested the GST is the solution however it should be considered as being in the list of possible reforms. It’s just short-sighted to say that discussion of GST reform is taboo forever.

Centre
Guest

Magic Pudding @ 1469

WOW!

That’s exactly what I said. Of course that’s not what reporters want to hear.

I withdraw what I said about Ken Henry earlier.

*exited this time 4 sure 🙂

Centre
Guest

davidwh

What caused the structural problems of the budget?

Was it the GST?

NO.

It was UNSUSTAINABLE tax cuts at the period of a mining boom.

So how now do you want to fix it?

Oh yeah, place MORE cost of living pressures on the most vulnerable – the ones who received a jack-shit sandwich and a banana milk shake from Howard.

Idiots!

*asleep

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