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Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Newland and Mitchell (SA)

Two new electorate-level polls suggest an intriguing election night looms in South Australia on Saturday.

The Advertiser has published two of Galaxy’s electorate-level automated phone polls from samples of about 550, and they have produced the very interesting findings that Labor holds 51-49 leads in its key marginal seats of Mitchell and Newland. The Liberals need six seats to form a majority government, and with respective margins of 2.5% and 2.6%, the seats in question are Labor’s fifth and sixth most marginal. We will evidently have to wait until tomorrow’s hard copy of the paper for full results, but it appears the poll will show that Kris Hanna, a former Labor member for the seat who held it as an independent in 2006 but was defeated by Labor’s Alan Sibbons in 2010, is at the very least competitive.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the poll in fact has Kris Hanna a fairly distant third on 19%, with Labor on 38%, the Liberals 36%, the Greens on 4% and Family First on 3%. For Newland, the results are 44% Labor, 42% Liberal, 8% Family First and 6% Greens. With both sets of primary votes, I would have thought Labor would have been further ahead than 51-49 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports provisional results from a Newspoll survey to be completed today gives the Liberals further cause to fear they may not make it over the line:

But with results from the first 1000 voters polled showing a two-party-preferred vote of 53-47 per cent to the Liberals, Labor Premier Jay Weatherill may still have a chance of forming minority government if swings are contained in key marginal seats.

With two thirds of voters polled for an exclusive Newspoll to be published in The Weekend Australian, Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 34 per cent to 33 per cent over the past month while the Liberal Party’s primary vote has dipped slightly from 44 to 42 per cent.

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122 comments

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Rational Leftist
Guest

[Final predictions?]

I honestly can’t make a confident one. The numbers are everywhere. The ALP Government is on the nose, yet the Libs have run a bloody inept campaign. I’ll have to go with my gut here.

Lib win. They’ll just get the 24 seats they need.

But seriously, that was just a gut guess and nothing to do with psephological analysis.

Don’t even ask about the Legislative Council! 😛

Diogenes
Guest

Final predictions?

I’m going with a Lib minority government.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Oh, just noticed Newspoll results. Oh. My. Gawd.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ Carey Moore 112/114

Wow. As Psephos said at 113, that’s only an 0.5% swing to the Liberals. Labor could quite easily retain majority government on that, nevermind minority government.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Just listened to the ABC National Radio News. 1 minute long story on Tasmanian election. Nil on South Australian. :/

Rational Leftist
Guest

My presumption in post 114 has been confirmed by Ghost him/herself, in case anybody was in doubt.

Utopia
Guest

YIKES!

That is very different to the other polling.

Looks like we have a Reachtel vs. Newspoll fight and the winner will be clear tomorrow.

On Reachtel its a clear Lib win
On Newspoll its a reasonably clear ALP minority government/bare majority government.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Newspoll SA State Primary Votes (Adelaide): ALP 37 LIB 38 #savotes #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Newspoll SA State Primary Votes (Regional SA): ALP 24 LIB 50 #savotes #auspol]

(I am presuming Adelaide means the whole metro area, not just the seat with the same name)

Psephos
Guest

52/48 is almost no swing at all. Labor can win from there. How bizarre.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
#Newspoll SA State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47.7 (+1.7) LIB 52.3 (-1.7) #savotes #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Newspoll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 34 (0) LIB 41 (-3) GRN 9 (+2) #savotes #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Newspoll SA Weatherill ALP: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 42 (-2) #savotes #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Newspoll SA Marshall LIB: Approve 42 (-3) Disapprove 35 (+6) #savotes #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Newspoll SA Preferred Premier: Weatherill ALP 43 (+3) Marshall LIB 37 (-2) #savotes #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll SA State Who will win: ALP 22 (+1) LIB 59 (-2) #savotes #auspol]

spur212
Guest

Let’s just say that Vickie Chapman is stereotypical of a very affluent and dysfunctional part of the Eastern suburbs of Adelaide.

Marrickville Mauler
Guest

If Labor doesn’t win a majority, they should resign, and refuse all blandishments to form a minority government. It’s both the right thing to do and in the party’s interest.

oh FFS

Psephos
Guest

Well I’m glad I won’t be watching. I still haven’t been told who will be hosting the election night threads here in William’s absence. Presumably nobody.

Diogenes
Guest

Psephos

Chapman is not only oleaginous but vinegary as well, like a tasteless salad dressing really.

Diogenes
Guest

Actually my family want William to call the election at 7.30 so the ABC can cut its coverage early and show Midsomer Murders at a decent hour.

Psephos
Guest

[Vickie Chapman is almost reason enough not to watch William tomorrow.]

Is she worse than the oleaginous Uhlmann? That would be very bad indeed.

Utopia
Guest

….and that folks…..is how insider trading is done! :devil:

Diogenes
Guest

With William as the official political analyst, does that mean he gets to be the one to officially call the election?

We might be able to bribe him into choosing a time of our liking and bet heavily on that at the pub.. 🙂

Diogenes
Guest

Vickie Chapman is almost reason enough not to watch William tomorrow.

Diogenes
Guest

[ABC1’s coverage begins at 6.30pm (CST) with presenter Chris Uhlmann joined by the ABC’s South Australian News Presenter Jessica Harmsen and SA Political Correspondent, Nick Harmsen. They will be joined by political analyst William Bowe and political panel, John Rau, Deputy Leader (ALP) and Member for Enfield, and Vickie Chapman, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and State Member for Bragg.
]

Well done to William.

I’m guessing moderation might be a tad relaxed tomorrow evening……

Rational Leftist
Guest

Oops! That’s William R. King I am thinking of. I always get those two names confused…

Rational Leftist
Guest

[No, I’m not. The name is of my own synthesis, the former part selected from a dictionary of words in J.R.R. Tolkien’s Elven language.]

Oh, I thought it was a reference to Arrnea Rufus Stormbringer, 19th century US Senator from Alabama and 13th Vice President of the United States.

spur212
Guest

Danny Lewis

As Penny Wong mentioned on twitter tonight, he’s a former state president of the National Civic Council. He’ a grouper!

Utopia
Guest

Danny Lewis:

You think you can tell that someone is a child molester by a picture?

What a dill you are.

….and are you talking about this picture??????

comment image

Utopia
Guest

[Arrnea Stormbringer
…..No, I’m not. The name is of my own synthesis, the former part selected from a dictionary of words in J.R.R. Tolkien’s Elven language.]

Sure.

The Fellowship awards the status of dwarf to Arrnea Stormbringer

Danny Lewis
Guest

Anyone who thinks Frances Bedford is in danger of losing Florey either knows nothing about the electorate or is on drugs.

She has a dud Liberal candidate standing against her and, if that’s not enough, the chosen photo on his corflutes make him look exceedingly shifty.

Less kind people than me have used the phrase “he looks like a child molester” 😉

matt31
Guest

If I remember correctly, Newspoll released a partial poll then a full poll in the couple of nights leading up to the 2010 Federal election. That’s the only precedent I can recall.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ Dio 93

No, I’m not. The name is of my own synthesis, the former part selected from a dictionary of words in J.R.R. Tolkien’s Elven language.

Diogenes
Guest

Arrnea

Are you a Pullman character? I seems to recall your name.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest
@ TT 90 55-45 is still only a 3.2% swing to the Libs. Even with uneven swings, suggesting Torrens (8.2%), Reynell (10.5%) and Giles (11.9%) are on the line is a bit too much, I think. I don’t think any ALP seat further up the pendulum than Wright (4.9%) is seriously in play here, myself. Still, that’s 11 seats. @ Dio 91 True, but while our system does, in aggregate, generally represent the democratic will of the voting population, each seat’s representative is elected to represent their electorate alone. One of the independents (I forget which) made some noise about… Read more »
Diogenes
Guest

Arrnea

In the end, democracy is meant to represent the will of the majority of the people and you would seriously question the right to govern of a party which got 10% less votes than the other lot.

Toorak Toff
Guest

If it’s 55-45 and Florey is on the line, look out for Torrens, Reynell, Wright, Giles and others.

It could be a rout.

Utopia
Guest

James J or Ghost:

Any news on the Newspoll?

It is a bit funny releasing a bit of a Newspoll one night and the rest on another night- is there a precedent for such mischief?

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest
@Diogenes 84 That’s a good guiding principle, but at the end of the day, the independents are elected to represent their electorates, not the whole state, and will accordingly go with whoever presents the best outcome for their constituents. Still, a 55-45 2PP result to the Libs seeing Labor hold onto government would further underscore the general terribleness of the single-member representative system and add more fuel to the argument that we should look to shifting it (since redistributions are just a band-aid that often falls behind the times rapidly). I would personally favour an MMP system such as that… Read more »
Utopia
Guest

I can’t get a flight tonight, but see you tomorrow!

Perhaps Bilbo wants to join? :devil:

Diogenes
Guest

Everything

I’ve actually got a bottle of Grange which is about 30 years old.

Utopia
Guest

Dio:

Not to mention a pie floater and Grange! :devil:

Diogenes
Guest

If it was a hung parliament and the vote was 55-45, I really think the indies should put in whoever got the 55%. You have to have some respect for the will of the majority of the voters.

gloryconsequence
Guest

[It all depends on where the swings are. It’s not impossible.]

Let me rephrase: 55-45 would result in a Liberal majority 99 times out of 100.

Diogenes
Guest

Everything

[The ABC news also mentioned that their analyst tomorrow would be William Bowe.

Hey- what a coincidence! Our blog is run by someone with that name too.]

It can’t be our William or he would have let us PBers know he was coming to Adelaide so we could have a beer. Must be a different one.

Utopia
Guest

[Socrates
Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 8:35 pm | PERMALINK
The ABC news also mentioned that their analyst tomorrow would be William Bowe. ]

Hey- what a coincidence! Our blog is run by someone with that name too.

What is the chance of having two psephs with the same name?

Psephos
Guest

So who will be hosting the live count at Poll Bludger??

Socrates
Guest

The ABC news also mentioned that their analyst tomorrow would be William Bowe. Congratulations and may it be the start of a long career 🙂

Psephos
Guest

[55-45 statewide would not result in a hung parliament.]

It all depends on where the swings are. It’s not impossible.

michael Quinlivan
Guest

my thoughts……..last time 52/48 lib this time polls are showing a 1% swing……..normally 53/47 assures a change govt…….. but with an uneven swing may be a hung parliament…….then depends on what the independents do……….and do they combine or make separate decisions?

Socrates
Guest

Marshall’s closing words were repeated in full on tonight’s news.
[“If people in South Australia want change,
If they want a better future,
If they want to grow our economy,
Then they need to vote Labor tomorrow.”]

Refreshing honesty from Marshall. I’m sure there will be no hard feelings in the Liberal party room if he falls short of majority government 🙂

gloryconsequence
Guest

55-45 statewide would not result in a hung parliament.

Psephos
Guest

Now that I check, I see that the wealthiest suburb in Adelaide is now Springfield, not North Adelaide.

Utopia
Guest

I reckon 54-46% and a bare LNP majority.

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