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Tasmanian Politics

Mar 14, 2014

Newspoll: Liberal 53, Labor 23, Greens 16 in Tasmania

Newspoll's pre-election entry for Tasmania points to humiliation for Labor and an emphatic majority win for the Liberals.

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I’m too busy to offer any commentary on late campaign polling, so it’s just as well that these numbers speak for themselves. The personal ratings are similarly devastating for Labor: 29% approval and 62% disapproval for Lara Giddings, 53% and 36% for Will Hodgman, and 27% and 64% for Greens leader Nick McKim. On preferred premier, 53% for Hodgman, 22% for Giddings and 14% for McKim. The poll also foreshadows a disappointing result for Clive Palmer, with the Palmer United Party recording only 4%.

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65 comments

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MagicPudding
Guest
Psephos, thanks for your thoughtful response @ 23 yesterday. I will admit that “stupid and evil” is OTT in respect of your suggested reforms, but I do get irritated by attacks on Tasmania’s electoral system. [Representative systems have two purposes. One is to allow reasonable representation to all points of view that have a significant following in the community, and the other is to allow the formation of stable governments that can implement the policies on which they were elected.] I think it is fairly obvious that in respect of the first objective the Tasmanian system is superior. Most voters… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

I assume we’re not getting an election night thread here since William is busy, so it’s off to Kevin’s place to follow the results.

Boerwar
Guest
“We have more or less locked in the 7 metre sea level rise which will turn many cities (produced by the thoughtful jds of the world) into shallow-water reefs. It will only take a couple of millenia – a pimple in time.” “Rather more uncertain is the other 61m of sea level rise. Will the CO2 Heads come to their senses in time?” Yet you accuse me of making myself out to be a prize git? jd [I had to laugh Boer, what else are fools good for…] Your science teacher obviously never had a chance. Your grammar teacher may… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

I said I have no opinion on whether they are underpaid. That doesn’t mean I’m opposed to paying them more. You get the education system you pay for. Tasmania obviously has a lousy one, which is damaging the state’s economy and standard of living. So it needs to spend more. Not for the sake of the teachers, but for the sake of the state’s future. That’s my opinion.

james dayton
Guest

@ psephos

ya very own words;

“If you want Tasmanian children to have a future, you should vote for whoever promises to put more money (a lot more money) into state schools including better pay for teachers.”

Is that an opinion?

As for looking back at your posting for the last 3 years…no, just cant do that, life and all.

Psephos
Guest

[Was that supposed to be a zinger? You can do better than that. That is if you are not busy writing an article on gay marriage, how teachers are underpaid or the pain of boat people.]

You don’t know me very well, do you? I am a gay man who is indifferent to gay marriage. I have no opinion on whether teachers are underpaid. I have been arguing here for three years that no-one who comes to Australia by boat should get a visa.

james dayton
Guest

“We have more or less locked in the 7 metre sea level rise which will turn many cities (produced by the thoughtful jds of the world) into shallow-water reefs. It will only take a couple of millenia – a pimple in time.”

“Rather more uncertain is the other 61m of sea level rise. Will the CO2 Heads come to their senses in time?”

Yet you accuse me of making myself out to be a prize git?

I had to laugh Boer, what else are fools good for 🙂

Nevertheless, thanks for the laugh 🙂

Another teacher? LOL.

Boerwar
Guest

“My name is James Draytonius, maker of things:
Look on my works, ye Greenie, and despair!”

Boerwar
Guest
[Paul Austin Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 1:39 am | Permalink If we hadn’t “destroyed the environment”, some of the greatest cities in the world would never have existed.] A favour which ‘the destroyed environment’ has returned to numerous cities, with the fate of the rest an uncertain outcome environmental blowback work in progress. We have more or less locked in the 7 metre sea level rise which will turn many cities (produced by the thoughtful jds of the world) into shallow-water reefs. It will only take a couple of millenia – a pimple in time. Rather more uncertain… Read more »
Boerwar
Guest

jd
Just as well that the environment is infinite source and infinite sump. Otherwise you would be making yourself out to be a prize git.

james dayton
Guest
@ psephos Was that supposed to be a zinger? You can do better than that. That is if you are not busy writing an article on gay marriage, how teachers are underpaid or the pain of boat people. Have you ever actually produced anything? Not words, actually produced anything? You can talk, you have rights, ideals, but have you actually ever produced something? Dont talk to me about lazy minds, I create, I employ, I take risks, I risk my family’s assets to produce, to grow to expand, to employ more, to create wealth. Want to know what a lazy… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

Hitler analogies are always the mark of a lazy mind.

james dayton
Guest

@ Arrnea

“You can’t eat money.”

That says it all, is that your let them eat cake moment 🙂

How very regal of you 🙂

james dayton
Guest
@ Arrnea I have read the greens policy platform. You know, what a load of fantasy, the stuff of dreams. You know, Hitler has a plan, how did that work out? You cant have an economy when you do everything possible to prevent the existence of one either. The dreams of teachers, academics, activists, all feasting of the taxpayer host, and wow, in this state, that host is rotting. You keep drinking the watermelon kool aid, whatever helps you sleep an night, why real lives are destroyed. Nice touch, how very human of you, just you, and ya silly ideals… Read more »
Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ Paul Austin 50

You can’t eat money.

Paul Austin
Guest

If we hadn’t “destroyed the environment”, some of the greatest cities in the world would never have existed.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ james dayton 48

Thanks for proving that you haven’t actually read any of the Greens’ policy platform and that you merely drink the media Kool-Aid on the issue.

What Labor and the Liberals don’t seem to get is that you can’t have an economy if you destroy the environment trying.

james dayton
Guest

@ Arrnea

Yeah, we have actually been here for a while already, oh I am sorry, who is in government?

Apparently the Greens plan is a 20 year transition from substantial welfare state to full welfare state, but yeah, we will make jam and stuff.

If you want to partake of the watermelon Kool aid, then by all means do so, I prefer reality myself.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest
@ james dayton 31 Yeah, and you’re going to stay there for a long time without the TFA, which was the last lifeline for a dying industry (Tasmanian forestry) which has past its time. The encumbrance of a Liberal government with no real jobs plan won’t help either. Tasmanians need to stop looking to get back the jobs of the past (where the ALP and Liberals firmly live) and start building the jobs of the future (so far, only the Greens are going there with a plan, though some credit must go to the ALP for at least supporting fibre-to-the-premises… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

My full election and candidate guide, link posted for anyone interested. Some sections dated now campaign is finished.

This has had over 12.5K unique pageviews, with the last three days being its busiest as people decide their votes.

Utopia
Guest

Indeed, so the correct version should be:
So the most likely outcome using Kevin’s analysis would be:
LNP 14 – ALP 7 – GRN 4

Best LNP = LNP 16 – ALP 5 – GRN 4
Worst LNP = LNP 13 – ALP 10 – GRN 2 (also best ALP option)
Worst ALP = LNP 14 – ALP 5 – GRN 6

My prediction:
LNP 15
ALP 6
GRN 4

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@41

Michael Polley is retiring at this election. His sister Helen Polley is a Senator.

And Kim Polley, wife of Michael, is Mayor of Northern Midlands.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Small addition: Denison 2-1-1-1 can be called a remote chance. Not quite in the “very unlikely” bin.

Yes 14-7-4 is the most likely from summing individual seat outcomes, though the Libs have a pretty good crack at 15-6-4 since they have two shots at it. But the worst outcome for Labor is not 15-5-5 but the highly unlikely 14-5-6.

It’s pretty safe to write off anything that requires two outside chances. 13-10-2 for instance. Labor won’t escape without seat losses. If it saves one of these it will probably suffer elsewhere.

Utopia
Guest

So the most likely outcome using Kevin’s analysis would be:
LNP 14 – ALP 7 – GRN 4

Best LNP = LNP 16 – ALP 5 – GRN 4
Worst LNP = LNP 13 – ALP 10 – GRN 2 (also best ALP option)
Worst ALP = LNP 15 – ALP 5 – GRN 5

My prediction:
LNP 15
ALP 6
GRN 4

Psephos
Guest

Michael Polley is retiring at this election. His sister Helen Polley is a Senator.

Roxanna
Guest
[I blame Bartlett for this. He swore before the last election he would not go into coalition with the Greens, then after the election he immediately did just that. Now no-one believes anything Labor says. He should have stuck to his pledge and gone into opposition then, leaving Hodgman to form a minority government.] So do I blame Bartlett, but not because of the Greens. It’s because he was such a shit premier. And I also blame Labor for reducing the size of our Parliament just to get rid of the Greens. It’s led to a decline in the quality… Read more »
blackburnpseph
Guest

[We also have Groom Jnr and Bacon Jnr in the house at present.]

Aren’t there a few Polleys running around in state and federal Labor?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

My summary seat assessments (based on all data, not just the Newspoll) :

In order Lib-ALP-Green(-PUP where necessary)

Bass: 3-1-1 very likely. Outside chance 3-2-0. Anything else very unlikely.
Braddon: No clear favourite. Four significant prospects – in declining order of probability, 3-2-0, 3-1-0-1, 3-1-1, 4-1-0. Anything else very unlikely.
Denison: 2-2-1 likely. Realistic chance 3-1-1. Outside chance 2-1-2. Anything else very unlikely.
Franklin: 3-1-1 slightly more likely than 2-2-1. Anything else very unlikely.
Lyons: 3-1-1 very likely. Outside chance 3-2-0. Anything else very unlikely.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@36

KB, what has happened to the Barnards and the Townleys? Are they extinct? Now we have the Hodgmans (Hodgpeople?) and the O’Byrnes.

Went to school with a Townley (unsure if related) but not aware of any still politically active members of these dynasties.

We also have Groom Jnr and Bacon Jnr in the house at present.

Psephos
Guest

KB, what has happened to the Barnards and the Townleys? Are they extinct? Now we have the Hodgmans (Hodgpeople?) and the O’Byrnes.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@32

By a strange coincidence, I just found an article I wrote about Tasmanian politics in 1990, at the time of the Field government and the struggle for gay law reform.
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Interesting reading. I did not know Llewellyn (who is running trying to get his old seat back this election) was opposed to reform at that time, though it’s not a great surprise.

Reform was finally passed under the Rundle government in 1997 after barely scraping up the numbers to get through the LegCo.

I think the LegCo has generally done well in this term of parliament by the way, but I still think the archaic LegCo system means they have little if any mandate and that any good outcomes are more luck than management.

As for your version of the single-member-seat lower-house proposal, I don’t know if Tassie needs 57 politicians total and if that really deepens the talent pool or just puts more dills in parliament. The current talent pool issues arise partly from the Greens taking seats away from government and partly from the Hare-Clark recount methods. (In recounts we often get a hack who ran as a ticket-filler, or a defeated ex-MP, but in by-elections for contested seats we’d be more likely to get a good candidate in). But I suspect the exact numbers wouldn’t be your primary concern so long as we did manage to invert the two systems.

meher baba
Guest
Psephos: I am inclined to agree with you about the need for electoral reform in Tassie, although I also sympathise with MagicPudding’s disgust at the shameless and clumsy way the major parties have mucked around with the electoral system to try to shut out the Greens. The Tasmanian system is skewiff, with a single member electorate system in the upper house and a proportional representation system in the lower house. I agree that this should be swapped over, but I think it should be to a 25 seat (or thereabouts) lower house and and similarly-sized upper house. We would see… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
MagicPudding@26 Kevin @ 22 I don’t think Labor would have introduced or supported the forestry peace deal had they still had a majority in this term. You might be right, but do you not agree that the peace deal was a better idea than “more of the same”? Maybe but I’m very lukewarm about it because the process that led to its formation was a charade of intellectual fraud and verification sloppiness, meaning that the conservation benefits of the deal are bound to be poorly targeted and exaggerated. It couldn’t go on the way it was. It was either surrender… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

By a strange coincidence, I just found an article I wrote about Tasmanian politics in 1990, at the time of the Field government and the struggle for gay law reform.
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james dayton
Guest

@28

we are all ready in recession, have been for a while.

MagicPudding
Guest

CC @27
Protests on site in Tasmania have been no more than a slight inconvenience to loggers. The most effective green actions have been carried out outside Tasmania. Arresting more local protestors would only have got Tasmania more bad publicity, and likely caused collateral damage to non-forest exporters.

MagicPudding
Guest

Just phone polled again. Only one question “who are you going to vote for?”. Conducted for the ALP.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

If (or rather, when) the TFA gets torn up by the new government, I can say only this:

Enjoy the war… and the recession.

Compact Crank
Guest

@26 If the Tasmanian Police and Judiciary had actively enforced the law of the land from the get go it wouldn’t have ended up where it got too.

MagicPudding
Guest

Kevin @ 22
[I don’t think Labor would have introduced or supported the forestry peace deal had they still had a majority in this term.]
You might be right, but do you not agree that the peace deal was a better idea than “more of the same”?

james dayton
Guest

@Compact

they are joined at the hip.

Compact Crank
Guest

I wonder if any ALP Leader will ever be stupid enough to go into Coalition with the Greens again after what’s happened to the Federal ALP and Tasmanian ALP.

The LNP thanks you.

Now the ALP just has to wake up to the fact that the Greens aren’t their political allies – they are direct competitors and need to be preferenced last all the time everywhere.

Psephos
Guest
Representative systems have two purposes. One is to allow reasonable representation to all points of view that have a significant following in the community, and the other is to allow the formation of stable governments that can implement the policies on which they were elected. Unfortunately, there is a tension between these two objectives, so an election system has to be devised that accommodates them both as far as possible. My belief, based on 40 years of close observation of Australian and international politics, is that the “Australian system” is, if not the best in the world, certainly among the… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

I don’t think Labor would have introduced or supported the forestry peace deal had they still had a majority in this term. And some of the industry “support” for it is soft and will evaporate post-election (indeed some has already been peeled off.) But the Libs will have a hard time winding it back, especially when it comes to getting World Heritage revoked. It’s more just about making the right noises to appease the concerns of those who have lost jobs in logging towns and hold Labor and the Greens responsible.

MagicPudding
Guest
Psephos @16 If Tasmania has problems they have nothing to do with our electoral system, which is markedly superior to that used in other jurisdictions. You are suggesting that the system be made less democratic, with the aim of preventing people whose opinions you do not like from being represented. This of course has already been tried once; the geniuses from the two largest parties got their heads together and thought they could eliminate the Greens by reducing the number of seats in parliament, making the quota larger. As a Tasmanian I found this embarrassing, since it was stupid as… Read more »
james dayton
Guest
@ Meher You are a contradiction, you seem flabergasted that people are moving to the blue side. You suggest a lack of enthusiam of those doing so..yet they are doing it, are they not. You use the word “desperation” yet you ignore the reality of why you are using that particular word, Why do people feel that way? Why are people moving to the blue side? I dont Meher, I know why they are moving to the blue side, so do you, they are desperate, they see no solution offered by the red and green team, they are Terrified of… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
James, can you please explain to us all what you expect and hope the Liberals are actually going to be able to do in government? The only faint glimmer of hope I can see (which will only help in the short term and not make a huge difference in the longer term) is that, once Hodgman is elected, Abetz may persuade Abbott to annoint him with vast amounts of Federal funding to subsidise the resurrection of the forestry industry and the expansion back into contentious “high conservation value” areas. But, with the moribund state of global markets for timber products,… Read more »
james dayton
Guest
@ Coast “It appears as if a wave of unreasonable hysteria has swept up the minds of the people. A reminiscent mood perhaps of the Gillard era, where manipulation and hound dog tactics by the opposition were significant factors in bringing down that government. Plus a terrible media bias that displayed little interest in challenging false assumptions. A psychological brainwashing that is perhaps easier for Tasmanians to succumb to?” Good grief, we have been brainwashed? In the 10’s of thousands? May I offer you an alternative view. They are hopeless, a speech writer and a teacher, never produced anything in… Read more »
james dayton
Guest
@ Meher “They have swung hard to the Libs, but without any enthusiasm at all: I have never seen a bunch of voters who are less enthusiastic about what they are about to do.” Without enthusiam, really, look at those numbers again, “without enthusiam”?. They are not blinking, its blue they will vote for, and I think with a fair amount of enthusiasm..and yes, hope. And as they select blue, lts with perspective that the red and green side offer only desolation, they are avoiding those sides out of terror. Also you post – “but out of sheer desperation and… Read more »
Psephos
Guest
It’s an interesting speculation as to what the Governor would have done if both Bartlett and Hodgman had refused to form a minority government after the 2010 election. Party leaders have a duty to assist the Crown in providing a government, but if they refuse, the Crown can’t force them. He could have suggested a Lab-Lib grand coalition, but I expect they would have refused that too. I expect the outcome would have been Bartlett staying in office as a minority government, followed by another election. My prefered solution to Tasmania’s problem would be a temporary grand coalition to rewrite… Read more »
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