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Newspoll and ReachTEL: final South Australian polls

Newspoll suggests a tight race for the Liberals in their endeavour to gain the six seats needed for a majority in South Australia, although it's a rather different story from ReachTEL.

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While Tasmania looks to be a foregone conclusion, we look to have an exciting election night in store tomorrow in South Australia – particularly if the final pre-election Newspoll proves to be on the money, as it usually does. The Australian reports the poll has the Liberals leading 52.3-47.7 on two-party preferred, which is most people’s idea of an election-winning lead. However, it represents a swing of only 0.7% swing on the result from 2010, which in uniform would deliver the Liberals only three of the six seats it needs to secure a majority. Troublingly for the Liberals, the poll has them down three points on the primary vote compared with the mid-term Newspoll result, to 41%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up two to 9%. Steven Marshall’s personal ratings have also gone backwards, his approval down three points to 42% and disapproval up six to 35%, which is not what usually happens to opposition leaders enjoying the publicity of an election campaign for the first time. Jay Weatherill has steadied after a solid drop in the previous poll, his approval and disapproval not both on 42%, respectively down one and two points. The good news for the Liberals is that the swing appears to be bigger in Adelaide, which is where the entirety of Labor’s large stock of marginal seats is located. Here the Labor primary vote is down from 43.3% in 2010 to 37%, with the Liberal vote “relatively unchanged” at 38%.

The other good news for the Liberals is that a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 1231 respondents paints a considerably rosier picture for them, crediting them with a decisive lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred. No further figures are available at this stage, at least that I’m aware of.

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