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Newspoll and ReachTEL: final South Australian polls

Newspoll suggests a tight race for the Liberals in their endeavour to gain the six seats needed for a majority in South Australia, although it's a rather different story from ReachTEL.

While Tasmania looks to be a foregone conclusion, we look to have an exciting election night in store tomorrow in South Australia – particularly if the final pre-election Newspoll proves to be on the money, as it usually does. The Australian reports the poll has the Liberals leading 52.3-47.7 on two-party preferred, which is most people’s idea of an election-winning lead. However, it represents a swing of only 0.7% swing on the result from 2010, which in uniform would deliver the Liberals only three of the six seats it needs to secure a majority. Troublingly for the Liberals, the poll has them down three points on the primary vote compared with the mid-term Newspoll result, to 41%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up two to 9%. Steven Marshall’s personal ratings have also gone backwards, his approval down three points to 42% and disapproval up six to 35%, which is not what usually happens to opposition leaders enjoying the publicity of an election campaign for the first time. Jay Weatherill has steadied after a solid drop in the previous poll, his approval and disapproval not both on 42%, respectively down one and two points. The good news for the Liberals is that the swing appears to be bigger in Adelaide, which is where the entirety of Labor’s large stock of marginal seats is located. Here the Labor primary vote is down from 43.3% in 2010 to 37%, with the Liberal vote “relatively unchanged” at 38%.

The other good news for the Liberals is that a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 1231 respondents paints a considerably rosier picture for them, crediting them with a decisive lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred. No further figures are available at this stage, at least that I’m aware of.

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56 comments

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J341983
Guest

Although I’m expecting a narrow Lib win (either outright or through a Minority Government)…

J341983
Guest

Frankly considering Newspoll’s Federal exit poll (which certainly over-pegged the Lib’s support quite significantly)… I’m not giving it too much standing yet.

Rational Leftist
Guest

That would be about 24-25 seats to the Libs, not counting Mt. Gambier. Wait and see, obviously, but that kinda is what my gut’s been telling me all day.

sprocket_
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 17m
#Newspoll SA Exit Poll Who will win: ALP 21 LIB 61 #savotes #auspol
Details]

Diogenes
Guest

Carey

They have the election on their second channel.

Sky reporting exit polls 52-48 to Libs with 3% swing in marginals so easy Lib win.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Dio, I thought Seven was showing the Football…

Diogenes
Guest

Having shown no interest in the election so far, all four main stations are covering the count tonight.

Diogenes
Guest

Evidently Stephen Marshall’s wife has breast cancer which is needing chemotherapy.

Psephos
Guest

Thnx.

Diogenes
Guest

Psephos

If you want to read it, these are the Guidelines for Stroke Prevention from the AHA and ASA.

https://stroke.ahajournals.org/content/42/2/517.full

Rational Leftist
Guest

Voted about a couple of hours ago. It was quiet. However, I believe the bad weather and the general apathy of this election will make a lot of people leave it until the last hour or so to go vote. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if turnout is lower.

Must say the Legislative Council ballot was much better than some from the past. 63 candidates in 25 groups made for a not-too-big sheet of paper and it was easy to number, then fold.

Diogenes
Guest

Psephos

Prevention of strokes is much, much better now than it used to be. You should see a physician who would organise a carotid duplex, lipid profile etc.

Toorak Toff
Guest

All very friendly at the blue ribbon Liberal booth in Tusmore. There was a sausage sizzle outside and a plant sale in the foyer of the Uniting Church. Shades of the temple where JC cast out the money-lenders.

A Liberal lady had been at Kilkenny in the morning and said the Family First booth worker had been as high as a kite and had lit a fire to cast out evil spirits. He himself was cast out and a fire extinguisher was used to douse the fire.

Utopia
Guest

If the child was not known to have epilepsy then a cardiac event is a definite possibility.

Particularly prolonged QT syndrome:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_QT_syndrome

Utopia
Guest

I don’t have any inside info on what happened but sudden unexpected death in epilepsy is a known, albeit very, very rare event.

See:
http://www.epilepsyaustralia.net/Publications/Sudden_Unexpected_Death_in_Epilepsy/Sudden_Unexpected_Death_in_Epilepsy.aspx

Psephos
Guest

Yes I know what a stroke is. My father and both my grandmothers died of them. I expect I will too.

Bugler
Guest

I get “convulsive syncope” when I get hit in an area with a high concentration of nerve-endings, which, when required to, I refer to as a “fit” rather than a “seizure”, if that’s any help. I feel “seizure” makes it sound like it could happen randomly at any time, when it’s only happened five times across my lifetime.

What a terrible thing to happen, though. Poor child and poor family

Diogenes
Guest

Psephos

A stroke is a cerebrovascular accident due to a bleed or a clot.

Children certainly do have strokes for a number of reasons but it is very uncommon that the stroke would be fatal. I think cardiac abnormality would be the most common cause of sudden death in a one year old.

Psephos
Guest

A stroke? Do children have strokes?

Diogenes
Guest

Got to vote in one minute flat. No line at all.

Psephos

As you say, seizure isn’t a meaningful medical term.

It would normally be used to describe a sudden loss of consciousness associated with physical movements.

It is commonly used to describe an episode of epilepsy but it is a lay term. People who faint commonly move their limbs. I’m not sure at all what happened to the child as epileptic seizures are almost never fatal unless prolonged. A sudden death at that age in a well child is incredibly uncommon.

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