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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 16, 2014

Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month's result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.


GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.


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2,109 thoughts on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

  1. Everything

    51 aint enough……Libs need 54 to win government :devil:

  2. James J


    March 13-15

    51-49 2PP to Coalition

    Primaries: ALP 35, Coalition 44, Greens 12, Independent 4, Other 6.

    Abbott: Approve 45, Disapprove 49
    Shorten: Approve 42, Disapprove 42

    PPM: Abbott 48, Shorten 43.

  3. Everything


    How big an effect do you think the “Habib” pamphlet had on keeping the seat of Elder in the ALP column?

    What did you think of the pamphlet?

  4. James J

    977 Sample size

    Medicare means test for bulk billing: Support 52, Oppose 46

    Qantas: What should the government do? Remove foreign ownership restrictions 30, Provide debt guarantee 20, Both 3, Neither 41

  5. Tom the first and best

    2537 (previous thread)

    The lack of information and contradictory information is the prefect breeding ground for conspiracy theories. There is an outside chance some of them are true.

  6. Henry

    What is the change from last Nielsen?

    Dio from last thread re: NFL.
    That sport is in serious trouble due to the many head collisions.
    George Will, a conservative US political pundit who I admire and an NFL fan believes the game could be banned within 10 years.
    The head impacts in this code are massive and continuous, and the suicide rate is high amongst many former players with this disease.
    Many of those committing suicide tend to shoot themselves in the stomach or find some other way to top themselves so their brain is left undamaged and can be analysed by science. It’s a massive issue in contact sports.

  7. Bushfire Bill


    How big an effect do you think the “Habib” pamphlet had on keeping the seat of Elder in the ALP column?

    What did you think of the pamphlet?]

    For Christ’s sake, for someone named “Everything” you sure seem to know “Nothing”.

    “Habib” was and is the woman’s name.

    If she’s ashamed of it, or thinks it does her harm electorally, then she should change it.

  8. Frodo Baggins

    Possibly what happened to MH 370?

    With fake passport holders onboard perhaps they demanded to be taken to Germany… or Australia.

  9. Greensborough Growler


    That’s right up there with “You’re not paranoid if they really are out to get you”.

  10. Everything

    So what do you think about it?

    Do you like it?

    Do you think it helped keep Elder ALP?

  11. zoidlord

    Another thread, another poll, not much love for the liberals with Abbott/Hockey & Co in charge.

  12. Greensborough Growler


    Why don’t you tell us what you think for a change.

  13. confessions

    [Abbott: Approve 45, Disapprove 49
    Shorten: Approve 42, Disapprove 42]

    With any luck unpopular Abbott will feature strongly in the WA Senate re-run campaign.

  14. Tom the first and best


    I believe that is a true statement.

  15. confessions

    He is after all the Prime Minister.

  16. Greensborough Growler


    If they came to Australia, they have probably already been shipped to Manus and Morrison could be refusing to comment on the matter because he doesn’t want to reveal the “People Smugglers’ new tactic for bringing in ASs.

  17. Bugler


    Well, in my defence, my first paragraph did deal directly with your point, but the subsequent two did discuss related thoughts, not targeting you. It’s a bit of a flaw in the way I post, sometimes ideas get aren’t perfectly expressed.


    Yes, certainly his presence wasn’t large, Sukkar spent big and spent widely. I stayed in Mitcham for a few months before the election while I was finding a more permanent residence so walked/drove past his office a fair amount in that period (never went in, as I had no reason to). The only time I saw him was at a “Community Cabinet” in Ringwood.

  18. lefty e

    [Medicare means test for bulk billing: Support 52, Oppose 46]

    You gotta love a question which present a false premise as fact to respondents: did they first point out that wealthier people already do pay more via the levy?

    Might be worth checking they know that before getting a response.

  19. Everything

    I think it was a masterful dog whistle which helped the ALP retain Elder and might be the thing that wins you government.

    Well done, nice work! 🙂

  20. lefty e

    Anyway, who gets bulk-billed these days? I get maybe 1 in 5.

    Let this fact-challenged LNP agenda roll on!

  21. Greensborough Growler


    Why do you think that? Please explain.

    It was actually a pamphlet. You could make a whistle of sorts I suppose by blowing on the edges of the pamphlet. However, I’m not sure it would be much use in calling your dog.

  22. Everything

    Very craftily used the same font as the asylum seeker ads:

    (which themselves were quite interesting weren’t they, as they were distributed by an ALP government to its own people while purportedly targeting people smugglers!)


    Very clever.

    So what do you think?

  23. Everything

    …well same design appearance…..I have no idea what Font it is! :devil:

  24. Svensky

    “Medicare means test for bulk billing: Support 52, Oppose 46”

    What an idiotic question. The bulk billing decision is a decision of the billing practitioner to accept only the schedule fee as full payment for service. How on earth is a means test on that meant to be implemented.

  25. WeWantPaul

    [I think it was a masterful dog whistle which helped the ALP retain Elder and might be the thing that wins you government.

    Well done, nice work! :)]

    Well in the very unlikely case you are right with what looks to me like a ridiculous desperate stretch, but if you are right how funny would it be labor saving Government by harvesting the racist hate the liberals have been cultivating since the disgusting children overboard lies.

  26. sustainable future

    [I think it was a masterful dog whistle which helped the ALP retain Elder and might be the thing that wins you government.

    Well done, nice work! :)]

    what did you think of the months of pamphlets sent by the LNP before the federal election whipping up xenophobia but not having the guts to put the LNP name or logo on them? If the ALP pamphlet was deliberately xenophobic, then it stinks – but my take on it is that the candidate had not been popular in local government and the pamphlet was about that. it is breathtaking hypocrisy for anyone supportive the LNP to whinge about xenophobia after the past 12 years of race card waving by the pricks they support. the LNP as hearing the dog whistle because they would’ve done it without blinking. I don’t think the ALP did it intentionally.

  27. Everything

    Rejoicing in it kinda diminishes your supposed distaste of the practice somewhat! 🙂

  28. Everything

    ….on second thoughts, having put the two posters side by side on my screen, I think they both ARE the same font in fact…..

    YIKES! No wonder if conjured up the border security meme.

    Clever….very, very clever…..and a little nasty to boot.

  29. zoidlord

    haha Mod Lib, after the failer of SA election, you come out with crap?

  30. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/28

    Dirty tactics by you.

  31. Dee

    Carolyn Habib was angered by the use of her surname.

    [“How is using anyone’s surname racist?” Senator Bernardi told the ABC.]

    [“I look forward to someone explaining how it’s racist to use someone’s surname.”]

  32. confessions

    OMG after years of racist dog whistling by Liberals across the country, in every state and territory, suddenly their online spear carriers want to pitch the mother of all fits about one obscure pamphlet in one state electorate in SA?

    FMD the laughs just keep coming.

    Yes the pamphlet was in poor taste, but so long as your party continues to entertain Scott Morrison as immigration minister, with the anti multicultural policy approaches in govt that it has chosen to implement, you mob don’t get to preach to all and sundry about this shit.

    End story: fix your own house before you start casting aspersions elsewhere.

  33. Everything

    Yes, I was quite amused when I saw the Barnardi defence.

    How do you guys feel having him arguing your case? :devil: There is something sublime in that and I was hoping someone would bring it up!

  34. Greensborough Growler

    Ah, so ML is playing both sides of the street.

    If one of her heroes, Corey Bernardi thinks it is OK, then what is she whingeing about?

  35. Everything

    Bernardi aint one of my heroes.

    I haven’t leased my brain to a political party, like….ahem…..others shall we say?

  36. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    If Ms Habib lost any votes because of it, it was because she put up such a song and dance about her own name. Talk about shooting herself in the foot, she drew attention to it for anyone who might have missed the pamphlet, including Howard’s xenophobes, and turned people off by complaining about her own name. .

  37. zoidlord

    Barnardi has no defence considering the crap he comes out with.

  38. Everything


    Right….I see…..because you don’t like Liberals dog whistling, there is nothing wrong with the ALP doing the same.

    Wouldn’t the more coherent view be to say that “you are against dog whistling”?

    Why does your view depend on the party involvement? It is either something you support or something you do not support……or is it just a question of means to an end and hang the ethical implications?

  39. Dee


    Point is, Habib was complaining about the use of her name.

    Confessions @32

    Yep, what you said!

  40. mexicanbeemer

    Not surprised, the government has performed more solidly in the past few months.

    The government might be scoring better for actually taking a firm policy position on corporate welfare and the boat issue.

    The longer term question for the government is how it actually delivers the budget.

    All up the poll looks about right but this government does need to pick up its act.

  41. Everything

    [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 12:13 am | PERMALINK
    If Ms Habib lost any votes because of it, it was because she put up such a song and dance about her own name.]

    Yes the lady should just stop complaining eh?

  42. Greensborough Growler


    Not liking Bernardi is like not liking the drummer in your favourite Boy Band.

    You still tap your foot to the rhythm he plays.

  43. mexicanbeemer

    Without knowing the seat of Elder is it the sort of seat to be turned off because of an arab sounding name.

  44. Everything

    …..I am not in actual fact. Ironically, it is you, and many others here, who are tapping their feet in perfect unison with him.

    You just haven’t the insight!

    Anyhow…you should rejoice in the spoils of victory and reassure yourselves that it was fine if that is how you want to approach it. That is why xenophobia is currently winning after all.

    You won’t win in the end though as those who haven’t sold out will always prevail!

    YAY for us ! 🙂

    Guten nacht.

  45. zoidlord

    I notice ABC been playing silly buggers with Labor Party Leadership:

    And Bernardi giving Shorten lecture on “qualities”, perhaps he should look in a mirror?

  46. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/44

    Xenophobia is all yours.

    Perhaps you should read up on the history of Bernardi & Co.

  47. confessions

    Why are people citing Bernardi as the Liberal architect of racist undercurrents, when they should be quoting the master himself in John Howard?

  48. Bugler

    Maybe if someone could demonstrate that the font and background used were unique in being used against Habib, while far from compelling evidence that the pamphlet is racist, would at least give foundation to the argument that the pamphlet is racist.

    A cursory look at it makes it look like stock standard attack ad font and background. It’s far more likely the decaying wall is meant to represent the “decay” Habib is supposed to have presided over/is responsible for in her time on Council.

    It’s crude imagery and a crude pamphlet making crude assertions. Even though I’ve only voted in one federal election I can tell you that’s just simply the kind of material you get. (example A: http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQr0WOW8Aha5TqbMbFxR03ZfoxNJGA2ZdmIhjZIm8h-idxG1xQnyQ )

    Unless focus groups stop telling advertising companies that kind of imagery has no or negative effects they’re going to continue to be used, regardless of the race of the candidate

  49. confessions

    [Right….I see…..because you don’t like Liberals dog whistling, there is nothing wrong with the ALP doing the same.]

    *rolls eyes*

    Seriously ML, I much prefer you when you’re making a half arsed attempt at being serious.

  50. Dee


    Carolyn Habib was elected to the Marion council.


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