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Federal Election 2016

Mar 23, 2014

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

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1361 comments

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Fulvio Sammut
Guest

No Newspoll yet.

You can bet it’s a stinker for the Libs then.

Shanahan is still under sedation.

Centre
Guest

WOW

Lateline: I can’t believe what Brandis has said 😯

Brandis has flipped!

Sustainable future
Guest

[The Roy Morgan poll also has Labor ahead in Western Australia with 52 per cent on a the two-party preferred basis, just two weeks before the re-run of the West Australian Senate election.]

Allowing for the morgan bias, what will this translate to in votes – will there be a state breakdown of primary votes?

Rossmore
Guest

Newspoll where are you?

confessions
Guest

Centre:

No last word for K’OD. Now that is a record. 🙂

Bobalot
Guest
Centre
Guest

connie

She still spoke the most. I’d love to get the count 😉

confessions
Guest

O’Dwyer still silent. This must be a record.

NathanA
Guest

Poroti

There’s a video doing the rounds on facebook a few months ago from a domestic T20. The batsmen completely middled an on-drive that hit the non-striker and the bowler took the simple rebound. The batsmen looked at the non-striker, who was motionless after the blow, took a step down the wicket to see if his mate was ok, then thought stuff him, he cost me 4 runs and then walked off.

Sustainable future
Guest

Marles is in the wrong party, as are many of the right faction of the ALP. Fortunately, shorten so far has impressed as a leader who seems to genuinely ‘get’ progressive issues despite his factional background and support base. i think he’s a consensus politician who listens across the party and realises the talent (plibersek, albo, wong, butler, leigh, etc) are not in his faction.

Centre
Guest

Eddie “women keep the AFL going”.

Well you couldn’t play the game without them 😀

confessions
Guest

Wow, no opinion expressed (so far) by O’Dwyer. This must be a first on this show.

confessions
Guest

Eddie is spot on about the buy in from women when it comes to the AFL code.

confessions
Guest
Jimmyhaz
Guest

zoid @1310

‘The State Council, or cabinet, said this month that China will speed up construction projects and other measures to support the world’s second-largest economy’

So the government will increase spending in order to stimulate demand? Why is it that this supposed third-world country understands how the economy works, but ours is still stuck in slash-and-burn mode.

BlindFreddy
Guest

Big Mouth O’Dwyer says there is no need for the ASs making the handburning allegations to be interviewed. It is enough that senior government and ADF have denied the allegations.

Only Sinodinos should be afforded due process.

Conservo airhead, yet she’s touted as leadership material. What a pathetic talent pool the conservos have.

confessions
Guest

[One 4 Eddie 😀 ]

O’Dwyer will have a view. You know it.

Steve777
Guest

Abbott has the interests of his backers at heart – the IPA and its member organisations and people, Murdoch, assorted spivs and shonks – not the people of Australia.

confessions
Guest

Marles is awful. All I can think is thank f*ck Qanda isn’t watched by swinging voters.

Centre
Guest

One 4 Eddie 😀

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