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Federal Election 2016

Mar 23, 2014

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

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1361 comments

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archie
Guest

You commentor “Kevjonno” accused me of being “an over-reaching blogger” in his comment #418 (page 7)on this post Apart from finding some amusement in his being on a blog and making this accusation.

I have taken the time to reply with some facts and an explanation. It is a long post but the evidence needed to be laid out and analysed.

http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2014/03/25/malaysian-airlines-mh370-and-amsa/

Rossmore
Guest

Love it when the smart lawyer tries to verbal a witness and gets the perfect riposte ….

“Today, after Senator Sinodinos’s barrister Tony Bannon SC suggested that the “crooks” comment was a “rambunctious, idiomatic, throw-away line”, Dr Schott paused before firmly replying that Nathan Rees is an “English major, and quite eloquent”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-25/icac-arthur-sinodinos-sydney-water-awh/5343636

Rossmore
Guest

Latest Newspoll. Has any new incoming government had a worse start in the polls? No honeymoon, no new legislation, one of its star performers in the poo before ICAC, the AG defending the rights of bigots and todays news on a backflip on trailing commissions for the financial advisors.

Has Abbott fallen out with Brandis, with the latter defending the rights of bigots in Parliament and the former saying there’s no place in Oz for bigotry in QT. Go figure.

Sustainable future
Guest

I love the way the Oz reports bad newspolls – ‘abbott support still strong’ and *cough* theLNPwouldloseanelectionheldnow48:52.

under howard I recall a banner headline ‘HOWARD UP BY 3%’ – the result was similar to this – his net dissatisfaction was down by 3% but according to the poll he was facing a 45:55 wipeout.

I wonder if they chuckle as they do it, or are so fanatical they don’t notice they are doing it.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

sohar@1351: Those Morgans right before the last election were using a different combination of methods to these ones. These ones are skewing to Labor by over a point on last-election prefs and probably more on respondent prefs.

Lynchpin
Guest

Great summation Rossmore.

confessions
Guest

victoria:

Did you watch Qanda?

zoidlord
Guest

@Mod Lib/1350

Posted at 1343.

guytaur
Guest

victoria

The body language in parliament tomorrow is going to be interesting.

I expect the big distraction now will be the finding of the plane

sohar
Guest

Before the last election Morgan had the Tories ahead by a similar margin (or more) to what Labor is in the latest poll, so not so sure about a bias.

Utopia
Guest

Do we know the leader approval ratings?

Rossmore
Guest

Sus Future 1332 Agree. Shorten is a slow burner. Showed his mettle at Beaconsfield, his political nous with the NDIS, and his oratory, altho a work in progress, has a touch of R F Kennedy about it.

Give him time, he has potential to be a great leader. And his progress to date, in the circumstances, has been solid and pleasing. He’s in a three year race. He’s jogging along nicely in front and his main opponent looks flustered at the moment.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes now

#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (-1) ALP 36 (+1) #auspol

victoria
Guest

Double snap!!

victoria
Guest

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 18s

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol”

zoidlord
Guest
TheOz: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-support-still-strong-in-latest-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226863729870 The Opposition Leader’s satisfaction rating has lifted, from 33 per cent to 36 per cent, the first rise since a steady fall from 44 per cent last December to his lowest of 33 per cent, two weeks ago. According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, primary vote support for the Coalition was 40 per cent, marginally down from 41 per cent two weeks easlier, while ALP support was 36 per cent, compared with 35 per cent in the previous poll. As a result of higher Greens support and a lower independents’… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

One point Richard Marles did make well.

The LNP set the standard on being “clean”. Now they have to live by that standard.

This is the major reason for the slide in the polls. Nothing much new has happened in politics federally besides this. It flows from the secrecy regarding the boats all the way to ICAC. Reminding people of wedding expenses as shown by the clapping of pigs in trough remark by Rachel Griffith.

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