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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 26, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

After last week's lurch to the Coalition, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back where it was a fortnight ago after three stronger poll results for Labor, most notably from Newspoll.

The BludgerTrack yo-yo moves in Labor’s direction this week, returning to almost exactly where it was a fortnight ago after lurching to 50.1-49.9 in favour of the Coalition last week. The movement last week was driven by a 51-49 lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, while this week’s comes on the back of three strong results for Labor from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, with the former having the greatest weight in the model. The primary vote results are notable for having the Greens at a new high for the current term, and a look at the charts suggests the recent move in their favour is more than just statistical noise.

On the seat projection, Labor is up 11 this week after losing 10 last week, the distribution of gains being two from New South Wales, one from Victoria, four from Queensland, two from Western Australia and one each from South Australia and the Northern Territory. This is the second week in a row that four seats have shifted on the Queensland projection, emphasising the point that the state remains a target-rich environment for marginal seats. Newspoll also provides a new set of results for leadership ratings, which produce only negligible shifts on last week’s numbers.

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3122 comments

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briefly
Guest

by contrast….

[Capital punishment in Russia has been indefinitely suspended, although it is theoretically allowed, with the only legal method being shooting. There exists both an implicit moratorium established by the President Yeltsin in 1996, and an explicit one, established by the Constitutional Court of Russia in 1999 and which was most recently reaffirmed in 2009. Russia has not executed anyone since 1996, and the regulations of the Council of Europe prohibit it from doing so at any time in the future. However, the death penalty still remains codified.]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Russia

briefly
Guest
The USA is in very bad company….. [At least 778 executions were carried out in 2013 – up from at least 682 in 2012 – according to the latest global report from Amnesty International. The report documents executions in 22 countries in 2013, a rise on the previous year when executions were recorded in 21 countries worldwide. The countries with the highest number of executions were China, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, USA and Somalia. According to Amnesty International, China executed more people than the rest of the world put together- but as data on the use of the… Read more »
briefly
Guest

[3118…..swamprat]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2014/mar/27/death-penalty-statistics-2013-by-country

You mean 39 executions were carried out in the USA last year? You won’t find me (or I suspect any other bludgers) trying to defend that.

swamprat
Guest

I note from Amnesty, the USofA only slaughtered 39 people last year.

I know all you pink Tories will rush to defend the judicial slaughter.

briefly
Guest
[3113 zoidlord Jobs are Supply vs Demand, just like every other industry, fix the Demand part, then you more than likely fix the Supply problem, and some of the other problems. Unfortunately, we have a Supply issue with little Demand for jobs. The fact that this gov seems to be creating more unemployed than jobs, seems they have their priorities wrong, again.] In the aggregate, demand for labour is a function of aggregate income. So if we are to expand effective demand for labour we have to focus on expanding real disposable incomes in a context of continual structural economic… Read more »
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Sorry don’t think the link worked, hopefully better luck this time

http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/LawCite?cit=%5B2011%5D%20FCA%201103

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Thanks to Imacca, I have read though part of the Eatcock v Bolt case, the case which the anti s18c & s18d crowd have been pushing to remove.

Must say on reading it Bolt has done himself no favors, now i do recall the newspaper articles and it was clear at the time that he was running a campaign against a group of fair skinned aboriginals yet in this case he actually disputes that to be the case.

http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/cases/cth/FCA/2011/1103.html?query=

sceptic
Guest

deblonay

There should be no respite for Pell, not in Rome not anywhere.
One hopes his next appearance before the Royal Commission sees a genuinely contrite individual
& there is to be another

Pell could have apologised during the RC examination instead of using his lawyer to ask the dorthy Dix questions at the end.
All PR and no sincerity ….

zoidlord
Guest

Jobs are Supply vs Demand, just like every other industry, fix the Demand part, then you more than likely fix the Supply problem, and some of the other problems.

Unfortunately, we have a Supply issue with little Demand for jobs.

The fact that this gov seems to be creating more unemployed than jobs, seems they have their priorities wrong, again.

bemused
Guest

Tom the first and best@3111

3108

To increase the wages of unskilled work, the surplus labour pool must be reduced. Allowing far greater access to developed world jobs would dramatically speed that up. It is not a panacea for world poverty, but it would help.

Oh great idea!

Unfortunately there is already high unemployment in developed countries including Australia.

What’s your next brainwave?

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

3108

To increase the wages of unskilled work, the surplus labour pool must be reduced. Allowing far greater access to developed world jobs would dramatically speed that up. It is not a panacea for world poverty, but it would help.

sceptic
Guest
Pell & his lawyers Corrs Chambers Westgarth….. sickening David Marr article http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/28/a-cup-of-tea-with-the-cardinal-what-george-pell-did-in-the-ellis-case….. The Ellis case began in the supreme court of NSW on 20 July 2005. Out of the blue that evening, Ellis’s lawyers had a call from the man known at the commission as SA. Over the objections of Pell’s lawyers, the judge heard SA’s evidence. He had been an altar boy at the cathedral in the early 1980s when Duggan began to abuse him. In 1983 he gave a statutory declaration detailing the abuse to the cathedral’s dean, Michael McGloin. The dean did nothing but make SA face… Read more »
deblonay
Guest
Re Pell ________ I offer no support for Pell ,but a close friend who knew him well years ago in Ballarat when he had a high post in the local Catholic Church(then went from, there to Higher Things.. first in Melb then Sydney now Rome.)…found him a very efficent but a rather remote and aloof individual My friend thought that Pell may be a little depressive,and incapable of any warmth and intimacy with others..and lived a very private life In Rome he may be quite competent and probably able to deal with the corruptuion which he may unravel inside the… Read more »
bemused
Guest

Tom the first and best@3107
Your craziness asserts itself again.

The proposal was quite explicitly for people to be brought in and paid at far less than Australian rates.

And if you are serious about wanting to eliminate world poverty then there is only one way to do it. Economic development and growing wages and standard of living in developing countries.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
3105 I am not opposed to the idea of allowing people in to Australia to do domestic work. I would set the pay minimums at the sane rate for Australians though. I oppose poverty around the world and do not think lines on a map should stop people getting jobs to get themselves out of poverty. Since a very high proportion of Australian households, 75.5% was the figure I saw last (when economic stats that showed Australia`s wealth were being posted to point out the previous government`s success), are in the top 10% of household income, it is perfectly reasonable… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

I think, since the Catholic Church is not going to dump or demote Pell (even though he took the wrong approach to abuse compensation, for which he should be dealt with), that moving him to a non-pastoral role is good. His stubborn interest in the finances of the Church will likely be put to good use in this new role, fixing up Church financial corruption.

bemused
Guest

victoria@3086

Call for Asian nannies to reduce childcare costs

http://www.theage.com.au/national/call-for-asian-nannies-to-reduce-childcare-costs-20140328-35oln.html

I’m sure that had a poll at the bottom of it this morning and I was disgusted at the number voting in favour.

What happened I wonder?

zoidlord
Guest

Newman 😮

Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 31s

This gov is something special – if they aren’t lying through their teeth or trying to legislate away dissent, they try it in the courts

swamprat
Guest

Do you think Malcolm Turnbull would make a great Minister in the Internet Party in NZ?

Or do you think the Internet Party is maybe not thinking “copper”?

https://internet.org.nz

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