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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 26, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

After last week's lurch to the Coalition, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back where it was a fortnight ago after three stronger poll results for Labor, most notably from Newspoll.

The BludgerTrack yo-yo moves in Labor’s direction this week, returning to almost exactly where it was a fortnight ago after lurching to 50.1-49.9 in favour of the Coalition last week. The movement last week was driven by a 51-49 lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, while this week’s comes on the back of three strong results for Labor from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, with the former having the greatest weight in the model. The primary vote results are notable for having the Greens at a new high for the current term, and a look at the charts suggests the recent move in their favour is more than just statistical noise.

On the seat projection, Labor is up 11 this week after losing 10 last week, the distribution of gains being two from New South Wales, one from Victoria, four from Queensland, two from Western Australia and one each from South Australia and the Northern Territory. This is the second week in a row that four seats have shifted on the Queensland projection, emphasising the point that the state remains a target-rich environment for marginal seats. Newspoll also provides a new set of results for leadership ratings, which produce only negligible shifts on last week’s numbers.

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3122 comments

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briefly
Guest

by contrast….

[Capital punishment in Russia has been indefinitely suspended, although it is theoretically allowed, with the only legal method being shooting. There exists both an implicit moratorium established by the President Yeltsin in 1996, and an explicit one, established by the Constitutional Court of Russia in 1999 and which was most recently reaffirmed in 2009. Russia has not executed anyone since 1996, and the regulations of the Council of Europe prohibit it from doing so at any time in the future. However, the death penalty still remains codified.]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Russia

briefly
Guest
The USA is in very bad company….. [At least 778 executions were carried out in 2013 – up from at least 682 in 2012 – according to the latest global report from Amnesty International. The report documents executions in 22 countries in 2013, a rise on the previous year when executions were recorded in 21 countries worldwide. The countries with the highest number of executions were China, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, USA and Somalia. According to Amnesty International, China executed more people than the rest of the world put together- but as data on the use of the… Read more »
briefly
Guest

[3118…..swamprat]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2014/mar/27/death-penalty-statistics-2013-by-country

You mean 39 executions were carried out in the USA last year? You won’t find me (or I suspect any other bludgers) trying to defend that.

swamprat
Guest

I note from Amnesty, the USofA only slaughtered 39 people last year.

I know all you pink Tories will rush to defend the judicial slaughter.

briefly
Guest
[3113 zoidlord Jobs are Supply vs Demand, just like every other industry, fix the Demand part, then you more than likely fix the Supply problem, and some of the other problems. Unfortunately, we have a Supply issue with little Demand for jobs. The fact that this gov seems to be creating more unemployed than jobs, seems they have their priorities wrong, again.] In the aggregate, demand for labour is a function of aggregate income. So if we are to expand effective demand for labour we have to focus on expanding real disposable incomes in a context of continual structural economic… Read more »
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Sorry don’t think the link worked, hopefully better luck this time

http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/LawCite?cit=%5B2011%5D%20FCA%201103

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Thanks to Imacca, I have read though part of the Eatcock v Bolt case, the case which the anti s18c & s18d crowd have been pushing to remove.

Must say on reading it Bolt has done himself no favors, now i do recall the newspaper articles and it was clear at the time that he was running a campaign against a group of fair skinned aboriginals yet in this case he actually disputes that to be the case.

http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/cases/cth/FCA/2011/1103.html?query=

sceptic
Guest

deblonay

There should be no respite for Pell, not in Rome not anywhere.
One hopes his next appearance before the Royal Commission sees a genuinely contrite individual
& there is to be another

Pell could have apologised during the RC examination instead of using his lawyer to ask the dorthy Dix questions at the end.
All PR and no sincerity ….

zoidlord
Guest

Jobs are Supply vs Demand, just like every other industry, fix the Demand part, then you more than likely fix the Supply problem, and some of the other problems.

Unfortunately, we have a Supply issue with little Demand for jobs.

The fact that this gov seems to be creating more unemployed than jobs, seems they have their priorities wrong, again.

bemused
Guest

Tom the first and best@3111

3108

To increase the wages of unskilled work, the surplus labour pool must be reduced. Allowing far greater access to developed world jobs would dramatically speed that up. It is not a panacea for world poverty, but it would help.

Oh great idea!

Unfortunately there is already high unemployment in developed countries including Australia.

What’s your next brainwave?

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

3108

To increase the wages of unskilled work, the surplus labour pool must be reduced. Allowing far greater access to developed world jobs would dramatically speed that up. It is not a panacea for world poverty, but it would help.

sceptic
Guest
Pell & his lawyers Corrs Chambers Westgarth….. sickening David Marr article http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/28/a-cup-of-tea-with-the-cardinal-what-george-pell-did-in-the-ellis-case….. The Ellis case began in the supreme court of NSW on 20 July 2005. Out of the blue that evening, Ellis’s lawyers had a call from the man known at the commission as SA. Over the objections of Pell’s lawyers, the judge heard SA’s evidence. He had been an altar boy at the cathedral in the early 1980s when Duggan began to abuse him. In 1983 he gave a statutory declaration detailing the abuse to the cathedral’s dean, Michael McGloin. The dean did nothing but make SA face… Read more »
deblonay
Guest
Re Pell ________ I offer no support for Pell ,but a close friend who knew him well years ago in Ballarat when he had a high post in the local Catholic Church(then went from, there to Higher Things.. first in Melb then Sydney now Rome.)…found him a very efficent but a rather remote and aloof individual My friend thought that Pell may be a little depressive,and incapable of any warmth and intimacy with others..and lived a very private life In Rome he may be quite competent and probably able to deal with the corruptuion which he may unravel inside the… Read more »
bemused
Guest

Tom the first and best@3107
Your craziness asserts itself again.

The proposal was quite explicitly for people to be brought in and paid at far less than Australian rates.

And if you are serious about wanting to eliminate world poverty then there is only one way to do it. Economic development and growing wages and standard of living in developing countries.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
3105 I am not opposed to the idea of allowing people in to Australia to do domestic work. I would set the pay minimums at the sane rate for Australians though. I oppose poverty around the world and do not think lines on a map should stop people getting jobs to get themselves out of poverty. Since a very high proportion of Australian households, 75.5% was the figure I saw last (when economic stats that showed Australia`s wealth were being posted to point out the previous government`s success), are in the top 10% of household income, it is perfectly reasonable… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

I think, since the Catholic Church is not going to dump or demote Pell (even though he took the wrong approach to abuse compensation, for which he should be dealt with), that moving him to a non-pastoral role is good. His stubborn interest in the finances of the Church will likely be put to good use in this new role, fixing up Church financial corruption.

bemused
Guest

victoria@3086

Call for Asian nannies to reduce childcare costs

http://www.theage.com.au/national/call-for-asian-nannies-to-reduce-childcare-costs-20140328-35oln.html

I’m sure that had a poll at the bottom of it this morning and I was disgusted at the number voting in favour.

What happened I wonder?

zoidlord
Guest

Newman 😮

Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 31s

This gov is something special – if they aren’t lying through their teeth or trying to legislate away dissent, they try it in the courts

swamprat
Guest

Do you think Malcolm Turnbull would make a great Minister in the Internet Party in NZ?

Or do you think the Internet Party is maybe not thinking “copper”?

https://internet.org.nz

victoria
Guest
dave
Guest
swamprat@3093 victoria The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank, says carers from countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines should be allowed to come to Australia and mind children for $200 a week to help ease pressure on family budgets. Under the scheme families would provide their Asian child carers with accommodation, clothing and medical insurance. The nannies would be entitled to Sundays off and a return airfare home for two weeks each year. It is not just offensive, it is obscene, on so many levels. Because of that, I am sure it will be blue Tory policy soon. Everything,… Read more »
victoria
Guest

For those interested

[Tune into #insiders tmrw w @PhillipCoorey @JacquelineMaley & @dwabriz. Barrie Cassidy interviews @MathiasCormann. Talking Pics w Gary Ramage]

swamprat
Guest

victoria, if true, the offensive basis for it is:

[…to help ease pressure on family budgets.]

It assumes that Australians have no duty to develop policies to relieve any “strain” on anything. How appalling.

It is an accurate expression of the selfishness and self-indulgence of contemporary Australia.

But maybe it is just a joke. I hope so.

Though I have met blue Tories who think like that about their fellow humans.

briefly
Guest

time to watch some tv…very overdue… 🙂

briefly
Guest

hmmm…a think tank…I want one for my birthday…inflatable, in many colours (like Joseph’s coat)…I wonder if there is an app for fresh towels…

victoria
Guest

swamprat

It beggars belief

Diogenes
Guest

[Adelaide loses and Collingwood wins. Does it get any better?]

Abbott not being PM and not having wall to wall Liberal governments?

victoria
Guest

briefly

Lol! Maybe a think tank who is taking the piss

swamprat
Guest
victoria [The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank, says carers from countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines should be allowed to come to Australia and mind children for $200 a week to help ease pressure on family budgets. Under the scheme families would provide their Asian child carers with accommodation, clothing and medical insurance. The nannies would be entitled to Sundays off and a return airfare home for two weeks each year.] It is not just offensive, it is obscene, on so many levels. Because of that, I am sure it will be blue Tory policy soon. Everything, et… Read more »
briefly
Guest

[3089
victoria

The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank]

Think tank? What is a think tank these days? A barrel of unwanted thoughts? A lucky dip or a bubble bath? A bird bath? A cognitive jacuzzi?

confessions
Guest

dave:

Agreed. The churches as organisations are in transition much like any other business.

swamprat
Guest
Just Me [The Catholic church messed up big time, by every measure of basic law and human decency, despite overly generous opportunities from the rest of us, over a long period of time, for them to do the right thing. It is only in this situation because of its own persistent and despicable failure to properly face up to this fundamental moral lapse within itself, leaving the rest of us no choice but to clean up the filthy mess, a task I can assure you in which we take no pleasure in at all.] While I have no personal knowledge… Read more »
victoria
Guest

As per above article. How offensive

[The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank, says carers from countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines should be allowed to come to Australia and mind children for $200 a week to help ease pressure on family budgets.
Under the scheme families would provide their Asian child carers with accommodation, clothing and medical insurance. The nannies would be entitled to Sundays off and a return airfare home for two weeks each year]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/call-for-asian-nannies-to-reduce-childcare-costs-20140328-35oln.html#ixzz2xLjiyqHo

Laocoon
Guest

Tricot 3003 (+Poroti et ‘fess)

Slight correction to views on Perth drivers…

[And as poroti mentioned, the local morons can’t cope with wet roads.

However, it is a long time since we have had any and Perth drivers have very short memories.]

😀

Gary
Guest

Adelaide loses and Collingwood wins. Does it get any better?

victoria
Guest
confessions
Guest

[Pell is a man who works for a global organisation. He might like to be seen as something of a more rarefied order, but he is like any other person doing an executive job.]

Yeah, hence my analogy with the executives at James Hardie. Or even the tobacco industry. It’s all the same corporate PR games.

BK
Guest

Diog
Looks like Collingwood will win this one.
Merde!

Just Me
Guest

[…for them to do the right thing.]

…for it to do the right thing.

jeffemu
Guest

I feel so sorry for the families, friends and relatives of all those missing on the Malaysian Plane.

But gee I wish they would hurry up and find something because I am well and truly over the meejah reporting of the disappearance and subsequent search.

Everytime a plane lands at Pearce in WA they roll out another Bimbo with a report on nothing.

dave
Guest
[I mean, how on earth does one respond to that shit? I have no clue. ] Well in 15 – 20 years time, plus there won’t be many Australian priest alive. Most country areas will need to come up with women as priests or some sort of lay alternative. Go to a country area these days, and priests spend a whole lot of time burying people and saying masses for them. Terrible lives for them. Day in day out. The main centres will probably have overseas clergy – hopefully not kicked out of their own countries because of the same… Read more »
Just Me
Guest
[2966 WeWantPaul And as for the church batting at a higher average than your average human organisation, because they preach morality, well you’ll find rare pockets that do, but on the whole the history of organised churches tells you that you would be an absolute fool to expect it.] So why then do churches get privileged treatment? If they are going to set themselves up as the standard bearers of morality (with the implicit ‘right’ to lecture from on high the rest of us about our alleged moral inadequacy), then they sure as shit better actually live up to a… Read more »
briefly
Guest

[3064
confessions

What damage can the man do to….It shits me that people like him continue to get away with their trangressions. The more they cover up for their employer, the more they are rewarded…]

You’re quite right to use this terminology, confessions. Pell is a man who works for a global organisation. He might like to be seen as something of a more rarefied order, but he is like any other person doing an executive job. He has accepted these responsibilities should be held to account in the same way as anyone else.

confessions
Guest

dave:

This probably won’t go down well with some, but it absolutely sickens me to see comments here defending, and looking to excuse the catholic church over its role in covering up the sexual abuse by its own members.

I mean, how on earth does one respond to that shit? I have no clue.

Just Me
Guest

[2601
BK

One thing that Abbott will never be is noble.]

Doesn’t rate too high in the grace stakes either.

Just Me
Guest

[2548
zoomster

Abbott: But they’re girls. I don’t want to live in a house full of girls. Cooties.

Credlin: I’m a girl.

Abbott: Really? But you’re tall.]

He he he…

cud chewer
Guest

Did I say “everyone”.. I meant “everything”.. oh well 🙂

cud chewer
Guest

Errol Flynn rather

cud chewer
Guest

[The LNP will do to broadband what they have done to everything else they touch: completely stuff it up.]

Maybe we should nickname Turnbull as Errol (after Errorl Flynn) because “everyone he touched, he f..ked”

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