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Tasmanian Politics

Mar 27, 2014

Tasmanian election late counting update

The Tasmanian election has been sadly neglected at this place, but here at least is a review of the results, and an opportunity to follow the down-to-the-wire race for the last seat in Braddon.

The Tasmanian election count will conclude later this afternoon, the one result remaining in doubt being Braddon, which might go either 4-1 or 3-2 to the Liberals ahead of Labor, the former being an unprecedented result. After all five electorates went two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in 2010, the Liberals built their landslide this time on gains from Labor in Bass and Franklin, gains from the Greens in Lyons and Braddon, and potentially a further gain from Labor in Braddon in as well. That will leave the final numbers in parliament at either 14 or 15 for the Liberals, seven or eight for Labor, and three for the Greens. A call of the board for each electorate in turn:

Bass: The Liberals have won a third seat at the expense of Labor, down from two to one, with the Greens retaining their seat. The Liberal vote was up from 42.6% to 57.2%, or 3.43 quotas. This re-elected Michael Ferguson (down slightly from 25.0% to 22.4%) and Peter Gutwein (up from 14.2% to 23.3%), the successful newcomer being Sarah Courtney, whose 4.7% share of the vote compared with 4.0% and 2.8% for party colleagues Barry Jarvis and Leonie McNair. The Labor vote was down from 34.5% to 23.3%, or 1.40 quotas – only enough to re-elect their highest profile member, Michelle O’Byrne, who was down from 17.8% to 10.6%. The other Labor incumbent, Brian Wightman, was up from 5.9% on his 2010 debut to 8.2%, but it availed him not. The Greens were down from 21.0% to 12.7%, or 0.76 quotas.

Braddon: The Liberals are grappling for an unprecedented fourth seat out of five, with a 58.8% share of the vote (3.53 quotas, up from 45.2%) set to add one or two newcomers to re-elected incumbents Adam Brooks (25.0%, up from 10.8% on his 2010 debut) and Jeremy Rockliff (up from 17.1% to 23.6%). Roger Jaensch (4.7%) is slightly ahead of Joan Rylah (4.1%, but performing better than Jaensch on preferences) in the race for the third seat, leaving Rylah hoping for a fourth. Both finished well ahead of a fifth Liberal candidate, Kyron Howell (1.4%). Labor veteran Bryan Green (down from 17.4% to 10.3%) comfortably outpolled maverick colleague Brenton Best (down from 11.0% to 5.7%, for all his efforts to distance himself from the government), who is grappling with the Liberals for the last seat. As Kevin Bonham relates, Best requires a strong flow of Greens preferences that he is unlikely to receive, given his vocal hostility to them. The Greens vote was down from 13.7% to 7.0%, or 0.42 quotas, resulting in the defeat of their incumbent Paul O’Halloran. They were slightly outpolled by the Palmer United Party on 7.2%, who were nonetheless unable to win the seat for which they held the highest hopes.

Denison: Denison produced the one status quo result of two seats each for Labor and Liberal and one for the Greens. The Liberals were up from 29.8% to 40.2% (2.41 quotas), but with Andrew Wilkie’s 8.4% vote from 2010 up for grabs, the changes for the other parties were relatively modest, with Labor down from 36.3% to 33.9% (2.03) and the Greens from 24.9% to 22.9% (1.37 quotas). The Liberal ticket was dominated by incumbents Matthew Groom (up from 15.1% to 21.6%) and Elise Archer (from 4.7% to 10.5%), both of whom entered parliament in 2010, as was the Greens ticket by Cassy O’Connor (down from 16.2% to 15.2%). The only Labor winner from 2010 seeking re-election was Scott Bacon, who in the face of considerably weaker competition for the Labor vote was up from 11.5% to 22.6%. Newcomer Madeleine Ogilvie is struggling to hold off Julian Amos, a former MP seeking to return, their respective vote shares being 3.4% (up from 1.0% in 2010) and 3.0%, with Amos narrowing the gap on preferences. The fifth Labor candidate, Alphonse Mulumba, polled 2.5%.

Franklin: Labor is in the awkward spot of having potential leadership contender David O’Byrne squeezed out by the Liberals winning a third seat at his expense, the Liberal vote having risen from 41.2% to 49.8% (2.99 quotas), with Greens leader Nick McKim securing re-election from a party vote of 16.8% (1.01 quotas, down from 27.4% in 2010). The Liberal vote was up from 41.2% to 49.8%, or 2.99 quotas, their ticket dominated by Will Hodgman (up from 31.7% to 35.2%), with incumbent Jacquie Petrusma (6.7% compared with 3.9% on her debut in 2010) to be joined by outgoing independent upper house MP Paul Harriss (5.4%). Labor’s vote was down relatively modestly from 30.5% to 28.6%, their 1.72 quotas securing election only for Lara Giddings (up from 15.1% to 16.4%), who landed well clear of O’Byrne (8.4% after his 2010 debut of 7.6%). A leadership transfer to O’Byrne could nonetheless be accomplished if Giddings left parliament, in which case O’Byrne would be certain to fill her vacancy on a countback.

Lyons: The Liberals (up from 36.1% to 51.9%, or 3.12 quotas) gained a seat here from the Greens (down from 21.1% to 11.4%, or 0.68 quotas), Labor retaining two seats despite a fall in their vote from 36.1% to 27.7% (1.66 quotas). Former Liberal Senator Guy Barnett polled nearly as well as the incumbents on his state election debut with 14.7%, only slightly behind former party leader Rene Hidding (up from 11.8% to 16.7%) and ahead of Mark Shelton (12.1% after his 8.2% on debut in 2010). Michael Polley having retired, the only Labor incumbent was Rebecca White, heading the Labor ticket with 12.9% after recording 10.0% on debut in 2010. The second Labor seat goes to 71-year-old David Llewellyn, who resumes a parliamentary career that was interrupted after 24 years when White defeated him in 2010, his 7.9% share of the vote comparing with 10.3% in 2010. The defeated Greens member is Tim Morris, who after the conclusion of preferences had 8462 votes (12.8%) to Llewellyn’s 10,177 (15.3%).

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33 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@32


Are the primary votes at the ECT website now final figures?

Yes they are.

Psephos
Guest

KB, thanks for that. The alternative was a West Coast- Circular Head-Wynyard seat, which looked even worse although it mirrors Braddon to some extent.

I would think that at a first election on my system, a number of indies would get elected, but as people got used to the idea that this was the vote that determined government, they would tend to move back to the major parties, and keep their anti-party votes for the PR upper house.

Are the primary votes at the ECT website now final figures?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Tas has two Upper House seats coming up for election on May 3. My guide for these is here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/legislative-council-2014-huon-and.html

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Dale Archer, to whom Elise is married, is not related to either Brian Archer or former Hobart alderman Lyn Archer. Psephos: Possibly there are some problems in using federal voting patterns as a guide to how a state election vote (even absent of H-C strategic issues) might shape up. For instance the Coalition vote in Franklin was probably harmed by candidate malfunction (the infamous “rockstar” video) and I don’t believe Franklin is naturally 55:45ish ALP at state level. I’d expect both Kingborough seats (especially the southern one which has a lot of bible belt) are naturally Liberal. On the other… Read more »
meher baba
Guest

KB, talking about Elise’s husband Dale… Re Psephos’s question: I’m not aware of any connection to the late Brian Archer. Are you?

Psephos
Guest

KB, what do you think of my single-seat House of Assembly?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

“I haven’t seen any signs of this myself: perhaps she’s more his type: but he’d need to increase his income massively and dispense with the ponytail to have any sort of a show there I’d have thought”

Ms Archer is married and I have a partner so this line of speculation can be safely dispensed with.

Psephos
Guest

Is she connected to Brian Archer?

meher baba
Guest
Psephos: you’re right. And candidates with popular appeal (not always the same as “good” IMO) candidates can also make a big difference under PR. Kim Booth held his own in Bass despite a collapse of Green support north of the Derwent. Adam Brooks, Scott Bacon and Jacquie Petrusma have all improved their personal standing over the past 4 years and are secure. Paul Harriss and David Llewellyn both won last seats for their parties which otherwise might not have been certain (and thereby, in a blow against the general quality of Tasmanian politics, knocking out Tim Morris and David O’Byrne… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

Thanks MB. I was likewise struck at the Labor domination of the south, even in an election which Labor lost fairly badly. A big shift from the days of Goodluck and Hodgman. I expect in practice however that the Libs could pick off some of the Hobart area seats with good candidates, but then again no doubt Labor could do the same in the rest of the state.

meher baba
Guest
Thanks Psephos. Interesting. What it indicates clearly to me is William’s point that PR generally helps the Libs down here. The Libs got 4 out of 10 seats in Denison-Franklin in the 2010 state election. Your guesses here – mostly on the mark -IMO – show them getting 1 out of 14 single member electorates in the same area. Southern Tassie is profoundly Labor-Green. Even in the relative landslide of a fortnight ago, the combined Lab-Green vote across the two southernmost seats was around 50%, as opposed to around 35% across the three northern seats (and that vote was bolstered… Read more »
Psephos
Guest
Here’s my rough attempt at a 35-seat single-member Tasmanian House: 1. Hobart Central (Labor/Green) 2. Hobart North (Labor) 3. Hobart South (Labor/Green) 4. Sandy Bay and Taroona (Liberal) 5. Glenorchy Central (Labor) 6. Glenorchy North (Labor) 7. Glenorchy South (Labor) 8. Brighton (Labor) 9. Clarence Central (Labor) 10. Clarence North (Labor) 11. Clarence South (Labor) 12. Clarence and Tasman (Labor) 13. Kingborough Central (Labor) 14. Kingborough South (Labor) 15. Sorell (Liberal) 16. Huon Valley (Liberal) 17. Derwent Valley and West Coast (Liberal) 18. Midlands South and Glamorgan (Liberal) 19. Midlands North (Liberal) 20. Circular Head and Waratah (Liberal) 21. Wynyard… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

I have a Not-A-Poll up on the sidebar of my site (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/) as to who the new ALP leader should be. Voting’s all over the place! Giddings is leading on 25%, but based on past trends she may drop back from there over time.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Re #12, these days I don’t bother working out what the same vote shares would produce in a single-member-seat system. The reason I don’t is that the Hare-Clark system distorts vote share because voters swing between the major parties to attempt to produce majority government. In a single-member-seat system majority government would tend to happen nearly always and they wouldn’t need to do this to anything like the same extent. #5 – I find the extent to which Tassie politicians either are socially conservative, or else willingly preference, support or otherwise prop up social conservatives annoying. That said I am… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

[Now THAT is a system with problems!]

The Libs can’t win four marginal seats they had eight years to find a way to win. Now THAT is an opposition with problems!

Bird of paradox
Guest

As for Braddon, that’s gone 4-1 to the Libs. A combination of Brenton Best getting “Ginninderra’d” by Lib candidates #3 and #4 (to pinch a phrase from Kevin Bonham), and an insufficient amount of preferences coming his way from the Greens. Funny that.

Also, Lib #4 is the first woman to be elected in Braddon sine 1996.

Dingbat The First
Guest

[but they only got a Liberal government 2 of those times]

And they were both completely crap.

Bird of paradox
Guest
[ If you win just over 50% of the vote and get 60% of the seats, its probably not that bad a system. ] I’m gonna compare apples with oranges here: the Tas Libs got 51.4% of the primary vote, and got 15/25 = 60% of the seats. SA Libs got a couple of points above 50% of the 2pp vote, and got 22/47 = 47% of the seats. The difference between the two percentages in Tas is 8.6%, the difference in SA is about 5.5%. The SA result is actually more “fair” for them by that measure (despite the… Read more »
Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@Everything 14

If you want the winner of the vote in raw numbers to form the government every time, the only democratic way to achieve that is with a system of proportional representation.

It is quite simply the case that the single-member constituency system is not primarily concerned with returning the more popular party to power.

Utopia
Guest
[Everything Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 7:57 pm | PERMALINK Indeed, so the correct version should be: So the most likely outcome using Kevin’s analysis would be: LNP 14 – ALP 7 – GRN 4 Best LNP = LNP 16 – ALP 5 – GRN 4 Worst LNP = LNP 13 – ALP 10 – GRN 2 (also best ALP option) Worst ALP = LNP 14 – ALP 5 – GRN 6 My prediction: LNP 15 ALP 6 GRN 4] Missed it by 1 ALP seat! If you win just over 50% of the vote and get 60% of… Read more »
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