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BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government's performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor's lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

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A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

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