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A dedicated thread for WA Senate election discussion appears in order. First, some random chatter.

Troy Bramston on Twitter a few minutes ago:

I’m told @LiberalsWA polling has given Coalition confidence it will win 3 seats #wavotes ALP in danger of not winning 2. Greens likely 1.

Samantha Maiden on Twitter a few minutes before that:

Liberals in WA pessimistic of chances of snaring three out of six Senate spots with likely outcome 2 Lib, 2Lab, 1Green, 1 Clive Plamer PUP

Me in comments a bit earlier:

Informed speculation:

Big win for Scott Ludlam, maybe with a full quota in his own right.

Labor in the low 20s – maybe the very low 20s – but still more likely than not to scrape home for a second seat, thanks to left preferences staying left this time around. Very low turnout could thwart them though.

Palmer United to poll very strongly, but the danger to them is that they finish stranded in seventh place as both Liberal and Labor-Greens do just enough to make it to three quotas each.

The Liberals, nonetheless, in big danger of losing a third seat to Palmer.

A path to victory remains open for HEMP if the Labor vote falls low enough that they can’t cobble together a second quota. One possible scenario is Liberal 2, Labor 1, Greens 1, Palmer United 1, HEMP 1.

Lenore Taylor at The Guardian:

Labor’s lead candidate says voters can’t trust his party, the Palmer United party (PUP) candidates have gone missing, the Greens candidate is DJing, 75 people get to vote twice and the whole thing is an unprecedented rerun because the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) messed up last time. Oh, and it could have a critical impact on how the government gets its legislation through the upper house. The West Australian Senate poll would have jumped the shark, if the state wasn’t culling them.

All right, punters – let’s get punting.

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145 comments

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mark mcdona
Guest

Yes I think that is how it will turn out

Rod Hagen
Guest

So on early signs it looks like 3 Libs, 1 pseudo ALP Lib (Bullock), 1 Green, and a free for all where, if lucky, one real ALP senator may scrape in in the last seat? Sigh.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

KB
I was wondering that myself, and they are Libs 4, Nats 3, PUP 1, and nothing for anyone else.

C@tmomma
Guest

Well it’s changed a lot since I was there 20 years ago… Which it has! 😉

Utopia
Guest

…of whom 99% are lapsed.

Rod Hagen
Guest

Just by the way, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/04/04/wa-senate-election-minus-one-day/?comment_page=3/#comment-1949182, WA doesn’t have a disproportionate catholic pop. Both NSW and Vic have a higher proportion of Catholics than WA according to the 2011 census. WA Labor will need to find a better excuse to justify choice of the abominable Bullocks.

Utopia
Guest

AEC is not inspiring confidence these days!

sprocket_
Guest

ok, the numbers have just been wiped off AEC web site

cud chewer
Guest

Now the vtw has 0 votes…

Alright who pushed that button, eh? 🙂

sprocket_
Guest

Palmer is showing a 7.49% swing to him, with 1 vote.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

cud chewer
Guest

Liberal +10% swing
Labor -26% swing

🙂

cud chewer
Guest

vtr now has 8 votes 🙂

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Why are there eight votes shown as counted in the electorate of O’Connor when the polls have not yet closed?

Rod Hagen
Guest
Polls say in WA 63% of voters support same sex marriage. This isn’t “clever”. It sends intelligent voters to the Greens and dumb voters to Libs (why not vote for a bigot with full party support?). Reality is, if genuine views count for anything, a better case could probably be made for even the Lib dingbat than the lead Labor one. On a broader level, I suspect many AUS in other parts of the country see this as a wake up call. Do Labor REALLY see Bullock as a leading Labor rep.? I, for one, can easily imagine him siding… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

From my #105:

I think the best way to implement RR under anything resembling the current system would be to remove ATL and instead have voting for candidates with an SA-style saving provision that automatically allocated preferences per the candidate’s selection unless the voter filled a certain number of spaces.

It’s been persuasively suggested to me that this would be unconstitutional at present and would hence require a referendum.

Tricot
Guest

Just on 5.30 pm local WA time and have been out for the afternoon. In doing so, have passed many polling booths – mainly at schools – and at 4 pm party faithful were taking banners down for the day in some places.

Either a lot of people have voted early, pre-polled or gone AWOL.

Largely a non-event by my observation in spirit and deed.

Maybe this talk of ‘voter fatigue’ hsd some legs.

However, purely observational from my point of view and worth about as much as to what is going on.

sprocket_
Guest

interesting trio spotted at the polling booth today..

https://twitter.com/geeksrulz/status/452376026991964160/photo/1/large

Rod Hagen
Guest
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