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Queensland Politics

Apr 9, 2014

Newspoll: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

Newspoll offers further evidence of ongoing sagging in support for Campbell Newman's government, now only a year away from its first bid for re-election.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest quarterly (I think) Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland has the Liberal National Party’s lead down from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the LNP (steady), 36% for Labor (up four) and 8% for the Greens (steady). Campbell Newman is down four on approval to 36% and up six on disapproval to 54%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk is up two to 38% and down one to 30%. On preferred premier, Newman’s lead is down from 45-32 to 41-35. UPDATE: It’s 1136 respondents from January to March (so not all that current then). Full tables from The Australian.

This follows ReachTEL’s publication of a series of union-commissioned automated phone polls:

• A poll of 2907 respondents statewide for Working for Queenslanders conducted on the night of April 2, showing the LNP on 39.1%, Labor on 35.1%, Palmer United on 8.0% and the Greens on 7.3%. The poll also had bad personal ratings for Campbell Newman.

• For the Australian Salaried Medical Officers Federation, four electorate-level polls of around 650 respondents on the evening of March 26, each showing Labor well ahead – by 56-44 in the Townsville seat of Mundingburra, a swing of 16%; 58-42 in Ipswich West, a swing of 15%; 59-41 in Cairns, a swing of 18%; and 54-46 in Campbell Newman’s Brisbane seat of Ashgrove, a swing of 10%.

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25 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest
kevjohnno@22 polling soon and come up with my own view of what 52-48ish would mean at an election. Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side Kevin with so many new members wouldn’t the bucketload of sophomore effect already be reflected to some extent in the current numbers? I’d think so, to the extent that a 52-48 result across the whole state could be closer to 51-49 without it. That said whether the polls capture the whole of the sophomore effect in those seats at this time is debatable. I’d expect it to… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

20

WA not distracting for too much longer? They sound like famous last words.

David
Guest

I say that the swing has to take in consideration that LNP are going to hand out alot of sweeteners before the election. I think it’s safe to say that Annastacia Palaszczuk has done better then anyone anticipated.

But unless Labor wins government, I don’t think she should be guaranteed leadership- no matter how many seats Labor picks up. Alot of her success has resulted from the LNP arrogance after getting that huge majority from the last election.

kevjohnno
Guest

[polling soon and come up with my own view of what 52-48ish would mean at an election. Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side ]

Kevin with so many new members wouldn’t the bucketload of sophomore effect already be reflected to some extent in the current numbers?

Bugler
Guest

Thanks Kevin,

I was more thinking that it’s difficult for the ALP to outperform in it’s own seats to that degree because it really has far too few of them. When I wrote that I forgot about safe LNP seats as well. Might it also be concentrated in seats traditionally held by the ALP that “return” to the fold next election? That said, the current situation is somewhat without precedent.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
That’s an interesting question. I’ve never looked at that one in detail. I suppose (off the top of my head) that the impact of OPV would be to reduce one source of variation in 2PP results, namely different levels of Greens votes, and therefore all else being equal the winner should win more decisively for any given 2PP result than under full PV. I’d think that Green vote variation tended to amplify rather than counteract 2PP variation otherwise (seats with high Green votes tend to also have high Labor votes etc). The other thing is that Queensland does not have… Read more »
Rocket Rocket
Guest

Kevin – how much do you think OPV changes the seat ratio (relative to full PV) estimates from TPP? My own feeling is that LNP 52-48 would result in a much more comfortable victory than a similar TPP in say Victoria.

In 2009 Labor TPP was 50.9 to 49.1 – my estimate (using old cube ratio rule) for FPV would be Labor 47-48 seats, and they got 51.

In 2006 Labor TPP was 55 to 45 – my estimate for FPV would be Labor 57-58 seats, and they got 59.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Bugler@14 Kevin Bonham, Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side and whatever the 2PP it is going to be uphill work for the ALP. Would adjusting for sophomore surge in this instance be less useful in this instance as there are less Opposition seats to take up the slack? Or are you saying that a (as far as you can trust 2PPs in an OPV system) 52% is more like a 53% once people recognise the guy on their fridge magnet on their ballot? I’ll take this one together with #16. So… Read more »
ruawake
Guest

[Police Minister Jack Dempsey said he “did not comment on polls” but said “Campbell Newman is the greatest Premier Queensland has”.]

In fact Jack he is the only Premier Qld has. I think worm scat has more intelligence.

antonbruckner11
Guest

KEVIN – I’m not very good at this, but if the Libs basically get an incumbency effect in almost every seat, doesn’t that mean that it will be uniform across seats (and therefore it’s baked into the polls). Do you know what I’m saying? I hope so, because I don’t.

Bugler
Guest

[in this instance be less useful in this instance]

*sigh* I’m sure you all understood anyway

Bugler
Guest

Kevin Bonham,

[ Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side and whatever the 2PP it is going to be uphill work for the ALP.]

Would adjusting for sophomore surge in this instance be less useful in this instance as there are less Opposition seats to take up the slack? Or are you saying that a (as far as you can trust 2PPs in an OPV system) 52% is more like a 53% once people recognise the guy on their fridge magnet on their ballot?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Leroy Lynch@8

Possum reckons the recent by-election and (I think) his own research indicates the pref flow may be better for the ALP than 2012 was, but we’ll see.

It might be simply because the ALP base vote last time was so awful. Still difficult to test.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Bird of paradox@9 KB: Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side True, but that very one-sided election dredged up literally anybody, especially the sort of people who only get preselected for unwinnable seats. The LNP have already had one Scott Driscoll, there may be more. And the obvious example in Qld of MP’s who didn’t expect to get elected is the dozen One Nation raw recruits of 1998. Look what happened to them. Yes, because their party fell to pieces before the next election. I think you basically have to be a… Read more »
ruawake
Guest

Another union push poll eh Campbell?

Socrates
Guest

Campbell Newman is doing a pretty good job antagonising voters. At this point credit must also go to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who has hardly put a foot wrong in three years. She has gone from makeshift LOTO to serious contender. A fine effort, given her lack of resources. If only Labor had elected an ageing former union leader instead…

Bird of paradox
Guest

KB:

[ Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side ]

True, but that very one-sided election dredged up literally anybody, especially the sort of people who only get preselected for unwinnable seats. The LNP have already had one Scott Driscoll, there may be more. And the obvious example in Qld of MP’s who didn’t expect to get elected is the dozen One Nation raw recruits of 1998. Look what happened to them.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Possum reckons the recent by-election and (I think) his own research indicates the pref flow may be better for the ALP than 2012 was, but we’ll see.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Cheers William. For those who missed it & a bit of context, the last QLD poll by anyone else was by Galaxy

http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/galaxy-poll-bikie-crackdown-could-cost-campbell-newmans-lnp-30-seats-in-queensland-parliament/story-fnii5v6w-1226822990768
[Galaxy poll: Bikie crackdown could cost Campbell Newman’s LNP 30 seats in Queensland Parliament
1 month ago February 11, 2014 1:00AM]

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/02/11/1226823/080138-cm-file-galaxy-poll-2014-02-11.pdf

Kevin Bonham
Guest

The similarity between the Newspoll primaries and the Working For Queenslanders ReachTEL is quite striking.

I tend to treat commissioned polls like the latter with caution until a non-commissioned poll corroborates them but that’s very close as corroboration goes.

I might do an article on Queensland polling soon and come up with my own view of what 52-48ish would mean at an election. Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side and whatever the 2PP it is going to be uphill work for the ALP.

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