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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 13, 2014

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GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

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1024 comments

1,024 thoughts on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

  1. taylormade

    Good for Libs if Milne stays as leader for the foreseeable future and up to the next election.

  2. Tricot

    17 for the Greens!

    Never seen this before.

    And I thought it was said “The Prime Minister has had a good week.”

    Maybe because he is far away and largely out of sight?

    Very odd indeed.

  3. Kevin Bonham

    That 17 is going to look interesting on the BludgerTrack graphs.

    My 2PP aggregate is up half a point to 51.0 to Labor.

    It’s basically been 51 to Labor for the past four months, with the usual minor ups and downs.

  4. sprocket_

    so the last Neilsen was a rogue.

    tho the 17% for Greens is very interesting given the WA result.

  5. Tricot

    I will be interested in the interpretation of this set of figures?

    Something to do with the Senate vote for Greens in WA? But how, if at all?

  6. silmaj

    Will be interesting to see the WA breakdown.

  7. davidwh

    I said the government had their best week since September and still believe that to be the case. Not sure if I believe the Greens at 17% but as it is a significant increase it must be the case. Extraordinary.

  8. Tricot

    Well, what ever, a long way away from any serious elections but not much sunshine for the government on face value.

  9. Rossmore

    Bizarre, Blues turning Green? Or possibly a change in the polling methodology?

  10. Leroy Lynch

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/race-hate-voters-tell-brandis-to-back-off-20140413-zqubv.html
    [Race hate: voters tell Brandis to back off
    April 13, 2014 – 4:58PM
    Mark Kenny, Chief Political Correspondent

    Voters have sent an unambiguous message to Tony Abbott and his Attorney General George Brandis: leave the race hate laws alone.

    The latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll specifically asked voters if they believe it should it be lawful or unlawful to “offend, insult or humiliate” somebody based on their race.

    The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.]

  11. Sir sustainable future

    If we had a non-biased and objective and consistent media, the commentary this week should be about abbot’s leadership being “terminal”. How will the oz and others spin this with their “the greens are finished” narrative?

  12. bemused

    From last thread

    bemused@2166 on BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0 | The Poll Bludger

    briefly@2157

    I am in the highly regrettable position of having almost no super and only the most modest of incomes. As a consequence of various crimes and acts of greed committed against me and my then-family, I lost nearly all my assets, including my share of my house and savings and nearly all my possessions.

    This coincided with a quite protracted period of illness from which I’ve only recently recovered. This illness really affected my ability to bring in much of an income, so now I have to face the prospect of working for as long as I possibly can – 70 will not be long enough – knowing my chances of accumulating any significant savings are, realistically, really very poor.

    So for me, the question of when I might retire is almost ridiculous. I will have to work until I am no longer fit to do so.

    Such things happen in the real world, but not in the world of Mad Lib and her ilk.

    Sorry to hear of all your misfortune and hope good things start to happen for you.

  13. Kevin Bonham

    Don’t know if this 17 is a Nielsen record Greens vote. They have never exceeded 16 (May 2010) in Newspoll.

  14. frednk

    [
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Brace Yourself
    ____________
    Dr Marc Faber,”Dr Doom” to US investors…who predicted some earlier crashes.. says we are on the verge of a bigger US crash than that of 2008,ehich will trigger an even bigger Recession next year
    ]
    This man has predicted 18 of the last 2 recessions.

  15. frednk

    Center will be upset.

  16. briefly

    [The previous thread/2166….bemused]

    Thanks bemused. I have vowed not to give up, but to renew my equanimity, my health and my independence.

  17. sprocket_

    [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 7m
    WA Senate count for ALP, Bullock 1039 BTL votes, Pratt 1285. Never seen 2nd candidate out poll 1st #auspol]

  18. Tricot

    Well David, if that was the ‘best week’ since September, which is probably was, it still wasn’t much of a week.

    With all that “statesmanship” what with the announcements about finding the Malaysian plane (well, almost finding some bits and pieces and blips and such) shouted by the PM, not to mention all those trade deals which will mean thousands off the price of a Mazda in 10 years and lots of promises of sales of beef and strutting the Asian stage and and whatever, it should have been a stellar week for the Coalition.

    Not that the Labor vote is much to get excited about, other than it seems to be going in the opposite direct to the Coalition.

    But, 17 to the Greens?

  19. davidwh

    I did say at the time they didn’t have much to beat Tricot.

  20. bemused

    briefly@20


    The previous thread/2166….bemused


    Thanks bemused. I have vowed not to give up, but to renew my equanimity, my health and my independence.

    You’ve got me feeling bad about any harsh words I ever traded with you. 😮

  21. Diogenes

    [The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.]

    When Bolta is the pinup boy for your cause, you’re nit going to get a lot of traction.

  22. briefly

    [8
    sprocket_

    so the last Neilsen was a rogue.

    tho the 17% for Greens is very interesting given the WA result.]

    17% does not surprise me at all.

  23. Yesiree Bob

    I don’t suppose that RAbbott is willing to call an early election now, is he ?

  24. Diogenes

    [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 7m
    WA Senate count for ALP, Bullock 1039 BTL votes, Pratt 1285. Never seen 2nd candidate out poll 1st #auspol]

    That must finally put to bed any remaining doubt that Bullock killed Labors second seat.

  25. briefly

    [24…bemused]

    Don’t worry, I don’t carry that sort of baggage 🙂

  26. Rossmore

    Briefly 20 …. Integrity and decency don’t need money. Good luck mate.

  27. AussieAchmed

    The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.

    Will this Abbott Govt actually listen to the people?

    I don’t think so!! The vested interests will dictate.

  28. bemused

    briefly@29


    24…bemused


    Don’t worry, I don’t carry that sort of baggage

    Robust debate has never bothered me, but others seem to take it all too personal. Glad you lean the same way as me.

  29. Leroy Lynch

    I think the Greens have done very well off positive coverage of their WA campaign. Good on them, but I can’t see them getting all that in a real election. I suspect they are also benefiting from the parked vote effect, where people who are unhappy with the current govt but not ready to say they’ll commit to the other side for whatever reason, say “I’m voting Green”.

  30. zoidlord

    Can primary go below 40 for LNP ? With this bunch, it may.

  31. briefly

    [30…Rossmore]

    You’re quite right, Rossmore.

  32. briefly

    30…Rossmore…and thanks 🙂

  33. zoidlord

    Oh and:

    Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 49m

    8K TV is on its way sooner rather than later… http://ow.ly/3jeyWq via @mashable #NBN #MTM

  34. Kevin Bonham

    I can’t find anything higher than 16 for the Greens before in any reputable national poll.

  35. billie

    I think Labor is in decline whilst it flounders around searching for its new direction while it panders to traditional blue collar workers who fled to Pauline Hanson and lately Clive Palmer

  36. Paul

    The Government had it’s best week since being elected but they went down in the polls.
    Interesting…. I’ve noticed when they have a bad week they often go up in Newspoll.

  37. Yesiree Bob

    zoidlord@37

    Oh and:

    Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 49m

    8K TV is on its way sooner rather than later… http://ow.ly/3jeyWq via @mashable #NBN #MTM

    All of a sudden, the LNP government looks obsolete.

  38. Kevin Bonham

    The good week/bad week stuff is mostly comprised of issues that shift less than 0.5% of the vote. Indeed a lot of it is not even noticed outside of those with an interest in politics. It gets drowned out by random bouncing.

    I reckon some of this jump to the Greens could be real because Labor had an absolute shocker of a week in terms of its perception on the Left. But that doesn’t move votes in 2PP terms.

  39. sprocket_

    Perhaps the whales decision has helped the Greens?

    A feel good story amongst the inexorable doom and gloom

  40. William Bowe

    GhostWhoVotes tweets that Barnaby Joyce’s BTL vote as the number two LNP candidate in 2010 was higher than George Brandis’s at number one.

  41. Just Me

    [8K TV is on its way sooner rather than later… http://ow.ly/3jeyWq via @mashable #NBN #MTM]

    Not in Abbott’s fibre-free Australia it isn’t.

  42. Paul

    So the government had it’s best week since taking office……. according to WHO?

    According to it’s supporters, the media, vested interests and those who staged the publicity stunt they called the PM’s Asian trade trip.

    No wonder they are down in the polls.

  43. Yesiree Bob

    Just Me@45


    8K TV is on its way sooner rather than later… http://ow.ly/3jeyWq via @mashable #NBN #MTM

    another nail in Abbotts political coffin
    Not in Abbott’s fibre-free Australia it isn’t.

  44. zoidlord

    @William/44

    And guess where George Brandis is now? Our Attorney General.

  45. Yesiree Bob

    err, I think that post #47 got a tad scrambled

  46. imacca

    This applies at 65, 60 and even 55years as well.

    Luverly. So they can go on the DSP rather than the pension then.

    Of course when they get booted off that (Libs hate bludgers after all) they can divest themselves of any assets accumulated (savings, house, car. belongings……) while they were working in order to support themselves at poverty level until they qualify for a pension at 70. Good time to be a cashed up spiv who can buy up distressed assets for a song wot??

    And why not raise the GST as well so they can get a greater proportion of what these people have to spend to survive into the tax take where it is available for corporate welfare??

    I think that people are going to start to twig that the Fibs are REALLY into wealth redistribution.

    Hockey really has not thought this through, and is setting himself up to be looking even more clownish than normal. But in a Chucky kind of way….

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