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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 13, 2014

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

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Mark Davis

Hi William.

You mentioned that you do not track ReachTEL due to its unusual methodology.

Just wondering what are the methodolgical issues you see with RTEL?


#Auspol Nett_NEWS++™ @ #abbott’s Jumbo Jest – Come Fly w’ me … ♯♫♪ by @rowe_david ©

hairy nose

The total amount Craig Thomson was convicted for was $24,000 over two years – that’s only 8 bottles of wine


Bazza & ICAC

O’Farrell says he did not have a “partisan” interest in Australian Water but was interested in “land release”. The company had positioned itself as being able to unlock the supply of new housing developments by providing access to water and sewerage infrastructure.

So all that’s needed for land release is pipes in the ground, for land not owned by AW… The BOF has lame excuse for meeting with AW spives


Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 11:42 am | PERMALINK

Perhaps it might spur a few small branches to amalgamate do they reach 300 members.]
I think he probably means the number of members in an electorate.

There are typically a number of local branches in an electorate and few would, on their own, have more than 100 members, with most well under this.


Yesiree Bob

I still have the 64 EH wagon I bought 25 years ago. Not for daily use but I take it to the country now & then. She likes an open road, not city traffic. Always attracts the odd train spotter.


Acerbic conehead

You too. 🙂

Peter of Marino

Acerbic Conehead @ 996
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 1:03 pm | PERMALINK


I presume the Royal Commission will be interviewing the little girl to get some evidence on how nasty unionists corrupt the young.]

F*ck Yeah 😀

Acerbic Conehead


[Acerbic Conehead

Love it!]

Glad you liked it. If it was good enough for Noah…

Anyway, enjoy the rest of the day.


“@farrm51: “We will keep our commitments,” says PMAbbott. But says major commitment is to a surplus. Pensioners to keep carbon compo. Sounds ominous.”


No-one could accuse Essential of volatility in it polling, unlike the other pollsters recently. Whether or not Essential is good a picking up recent movement is another question.


Ah yes, “most fundamental commitment” – that would be, how would you say?, a “core promise”?


“@latikambourke: PM Abbott says he wants to keep his commitments, says Govt’s most fundamental commitment was to fix the budget when asked about pensions.”


GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

#Essential Poll Free Trade Agreement with Japan: Approve 52 Disapprove 13 #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

#Essential Poll Are Free Trade Agreements good for Australia: Yes 49 No 11 #auspol


Finally. Abbott gets a question on rail

“@latikambourke: PM Abbott ‘yes’ there is an opportunity to complete a rail loop through Western Syd via airport. Primarily State issue but more to say.”


GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6m

#Essential Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (+1) ALP 50 (-1) #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m

#Essential Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (0) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) PUP 4 (+1) #auspol


Trains not passing Abbott lips on 2nd airport