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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 17, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week's Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

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1593 comments

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frednk
Guest
I’m sorry folks, space craft may fly around it; but you have to do something other that say I’m a loony when I tell you the earth is flat (it actually held up by an elephant). It would seem I have the right to be a bigot and an ignorant sod. http://www.spiked-online.com/freespeechnow/fsn_article/the-state-should-never-be-the-arbiter-of-what-people-can-think/14936#.U1Kdw6Ia2n5 [ He describes how Penny Wong, the Labor Party senator for South Australia and minister for climate change in the Julia Gillard government, would ‘stand up in the Senate and say “The science is settled”. In other words, “I am not even going to engage in a debate… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

[Will I be snipped?]

Yep, no more babies for you.

briefly
Guest

[1583……crikey whitey]

Hey CW, I missed your posts – did not go a-blogging on Friday – but it’s good to see you tonight 🙂

crikey whitey
Guest

Jolyon Wagg

Quite.

crikey whitey
Guest

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Will I be snipped? Others have used that expression.

crikey whitey
Guest
DisplayName
Guest

Hello crikey, I acknowledge your existence.

Rossmore
Guest

Crikey 1583. No I dont as a habit routinely check out posts from the night before. Spell out what your point was in a couple of sentences. Otherwise stop whingeing.

Jolyon Wagg
Guest

Hey CW I just went through all the pages for last night and couldn’t find any posts from you. I read here a lot more than I post and I suspect there are quite a few who do likewise…so don’t assume a lack of response implies a lack of interest.

crikey whitey
Guest

Rossmore.

Thank you. For responding.

If you (or anyone for that matter) could be bothered to look at my posts of Friday, I remarked upon issues of the moment.

It really pisses me off that one goes to the trouble of responding to issues of the day or week or month or year and in response.

Zilch.

I would not like to think that I am tooooo boring.

Jolyon Wagg
Guest

Hey CW…what were you posting about? I would go and look but it’s kind of hard to go back and look now that there is no “All” button so that you can search through all the posts in a thread.

zoidlord
Guest

7.8 Earthquake South of PNG not long ago.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000pr89#summary

After initial smaller ones.

Rossmore
Guest

Crikey, missed ur posts … what was ur beef?

zoidlord
Guest

Retweeted by sortius
Scott M ‏@ScooterDMC 5h

@TurnbullMalcolm So, check slide 9. http://www.telekom.com/static/-/212856/2/praesentation-si … a whopping 10 years extra from copper, not the 50+ from fibre. #nbn #auspol

crikey whitey
Guest

I am pretty sad that only one single person paid the slightest attention to my posts of yesterday.

Not even a hello.

I could say more on this. But does it matter?

Do you give a fat rats? The answer is sadly, no.

You may quote me.

It is as dismissive and ugly as the politics we discuss.

Or don’t even bother to respond to.

zoidlord
Guest
deblonay
Guest

Th test for the US Dollar may come in the very near future

In May Putin will visit China to sign a huge Gas deal which will involve a TRILLION DOLLARS worth of Russian gas for China..over the next ten years

and the payments…in Chinese yuan and Russian roubles to cut the US out of making any profit on the deal
such deals also effect the US economy at home…if the dollar values slide then the costs of imports becomes higher in the US…notably for resources like oil and gas…all bad for US living standards

lefty e
Guest

[Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says]

Kevin Rudd to RULE THE WORLD!

🙂

Roxanna
Guest

[I haven’t seen any prior mention, but the usual suspects have already started to react.
William is a bit of a surprise though. ]

Probably sick of lying and curries.

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