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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 17, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week's Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

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Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

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1593 comments

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frednk
Guest
I’m sorry folks, space craft may fly around it; but you have to do something other that say I’m a loony when I tell you the earth is flat (it actually held up by an elephant). It would seem I have the right to be a bigot and an ignorant sod. http://www.spiked-online.com/freespeechnow/fsn_article/the-state-should-never-be-the-arbiter-of-what-people-can-think/14936#.U1Kdw6Ia2n5 [ He describes how Penny Wong, the Labor Party senator for South Australia and minister for climate change in the Julia Gillard government, would ‘stand up in the Senate and say “The science is settled”. In other words, “I am not even going to engage in a debate… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

[Will I be snipped?]

Yep, no more babies for you.

briefly
Guest

[1583……crikey whitey]

Hey CW, I missed your posts – did not go a-blogging on Friday – but it’s good to see you tonight 🙂

crikey whitey
Guest

Jolyon Wagg

Quite.

crikey whitey
Guest

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Will I be snipped? Others have used that expression.

crikey whitey
Guest
DisplayName
Guest

Hello crikey, I acknowledge your existence.

Rossmore
Guest

Crikey 1583. No I dont as a habit routinely check out posts from the night before. Spell out what your point was in a couple of sentences. Otherwise stop whingeing.

Jolyon Wagg
Guest

Hey CW I just went through all the pages for last night and couldn’t find any posts from you. I read here a lot more than I post and I suspect there are quite a few who do likewise…so don’t assume a lack of response implies a lack of interest.

crikey whitey
Guest

Rossmore.

Thank you. For responding.

If you (or anyone for that matter) could be bothered to look at my posts of Friday, I remarked upon issues of the moment.

It really pisses me off that one goes to the trouble of responding to issues of the day or week or month or year and in response.

Zilch.

I would not like to think that I am tooooo boring.

Jolyon Wagg
Guest

Hey CW…what were you posting about? I would go and look but it’s kind of hard to go back and look now that there is no “All” button so that you can search through all the posts in a thread.

zoidlord
Guest

7.8 Earthquake South of PNG not long ago.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000pr89#summary

After initial smaller ones.

Rossmore
Guest

Crikey, missed ur posts … what was ur beef?

zoidlord
Guest

Retweeted by sortius
Scott M ‏@ScooterDMC 5h

@TurnbullMalcolm So, check slide 9. http://www.telekom.com/static/-/212856/2/praesentation-si … a whopping 10 years extra from copper, not the 50+ from fibre. #nbn #auspol

crikey whitey
Guest

I am pretty sad that only one single person paid the slightest attention to my posts of yesterday.

Not even a hello.

I could say more on this. But does it matter?

Do you give a fat rats? The answer is sadly, no.

You may quote me.

It is as dismissive and ugly as the politics we discuss.

Or don’t even bother to respond to.

zoidlord
Guest
deblonay
Guest

Th test for the US Dollar may come in the very near future

In May Putin will visit China to sign a huge Gas deal which will involve a TRILLION DOLLARS worth of Russian gas for China..over the next ten years

and the payments…in Chinese yuan and Russian roubles to cut the US out of making any profit on the deal
such deals also effect the US economy at home…if the dollar values slide then the costs of imports becomes higher in the US…notably for resources like oil and gas…all bad for US living standards

lefty e
Guest

[Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says]

Kevin Rudd to RULE THE WORLD!

🙂

Roxanna
Guest

[I haven’t seen any prior mention, but the usual suspects have already started to react.
William is a bit of a surprise though. ]

Probably sick of lying and curries.

dave
Guest

‘Fess

There should be a flurry of NSW Polling soon anyway.

[ confessions
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK

dave:

I guess we’ll see ultimately where this all goes in the end. ]

briefly
Guest

[1561
Fran Barlow

Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.]

I like that. It makes me think I could be Green too.

confessions
Guest

dave:

I guess we’ll see ultimately where this all goes in the end.

confessions
Guest

victoria:

Thanks, will read Elder tomorrow when I can devote time to him.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest
[1549 If there is a fight for hegemony between a Putin run Russia and the USA then it would be better for the world if the USA wins. The Americans are bad but Putin and co and worse.] Getting the balance right is important. I think there will develop a natural balance.. China-Russia-USA/Europe and others. The US needs a check just as much as they other guys. The USA isn’t the kind motherly truthful administrator of world justice of 1950s propaganda. It is as just as evil and murderous as the rest…we just happen to sit on their side of… Read more »
dave
Guest

shellbell@1562

Some irony lies within the likelihood that the current ICAC inquiry will see corruption findings, if any, against only ALP politicians.

Tripodi and Kelly, likely.

Eddie is a bit on the fringe on this one.

Will some tory identities etc also likely see corruption findings ?

zoidlord
Guest

@Victoria/1563

Perhaps he felt that if he resigned, they move onto someone else, and more will follow?

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

hehe the butt hurtedness has started with a few here already. lol

[
Bob Carr believes Kevin Rudd is ideal for the top job at the United Nations

Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says
]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/19/bob-carr-believes-kevin-rudd-ideal-for-top-job-at-united-nations

Rather than see the importance and significance of this real possibility … Australia and world-wise…. the butthurted ones would rather…well….snivel.

dave
Guest

Fran Barlow@1561

Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.

Fair enough.

Others have made similar comments about Greiner over the years.

dave
Guest
[ confessions Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 10:11 pm | Permalink Do you really think so? Obeid and co are accused of committing major fraud on the public purse. That stuff is rank. Like, seriously rank. They need to go down for that if proven guilty. By contrast, the Liberals are just facing political embarrassment on the face of what we’ve seen so far. Nothing that could lead to actual criminal charges. ] Dead right I do. They have some of their own facing potentially embarrassing weeks at ICAC with utterly unknow outcomes – with negative outlook. Senior tories… Read more »
victoria
Guest
And here is Elder’s take on the BOF saga [Barry O’Farrell misled ICAC and had to resign. It’s still a pity that he’s gone from the Premiership, and it’s taken me days to work out why. He made his way up through the Liberal Party with the deft touch of getting along with everyone without being anyone’s patsy. He spent time observing all of the players in the NSW Liberals up close, including their weaknesses and how to get around them. It’s part of the reason why I both liked him and rated him as a real political operative, not… Read more »
shellbell
Guest

Some irony lies within the likelihood that the current ICAC inquiry will see corruption findings, if any, against only ALP politicians.

Tripodi and Kelly, likely.

Eddie is a bit on the fringe on this one.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.

confessions
Guest

[The tories are really going to have major grief with all of this.]

Do you really think so? Obeid and co are accused of committing major fraud on the public purse. That stuff is rank. Like, seriously rank.

They need to go down for that if proven guilty. By contrast, the Liberals are just facing political embarrassment on the face of what we’ve seen so far. Nothing that could lead to actual criminal charges.

dave
Guest

Fran Barlow@1557

Much as I hate to disagree with Tad Tietze, Greiner was not essentially cleared. It was found that he wasn’t subject to the law, the facts of the matter notwithstanding.

Correct – again no matter how much the tories are desperate to re-write it all – they must not be allowed to do so.

dave
Guest

The second part of that SBS show tonight “Building the North” was really good viewing.

Northern UK Industrialisation etc.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Much as I hate to disagree with Tad Tietze, Greiner was not essentially cleared. It was found that he wasn’t subject to the law, the facts of the matter notwithstanding.

confessions
Guest

victoria:

Yet despite all that this whole ICAC inquiry is still fascinating. It’s claimed a federal minister, and a NSW Premier. Where will it all end? It’s just absolutely so compelling.

dave
Guest
Vic – some good stuff in the rest of that article. Not mentioned is that ICAC needs to be strengthened even after what has happened and hopefully as hearings proceed the need for this will become apparent. The tories are really going to have major grief with all of this. Do they strike back at ICAC in “punishment” and “retribution” in reflex at what has happened or do they attempt to fix things to shut out the very lobbyists who supported them all the way to regain power and who are mates. If they don’t they are road kill with… Read more »
victoria
Guest
[The spectacular termination of Barry O’Farrell’s premiership over a “forgotten” gift from a Liberal Party associated lobbyist and fundraiser being investigated by ICAC, Nick Di Girolamo, has led to much astonishment and confusion within the Right of the political class and its media hangers on. For the second time since it was set up by the conservatives, the Commission’s investigations have led to the resignation of a Liberal premier. To add insult to the Right’s injuries, on the first occasion Nick Greiner ended up being essentially cleared and on this occasion — at least so far, because more may come… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1549

If there is a fight for hegemony between a Putin run Russia and the USA then it would be better for the world if the USA wins. The Americans are bad but Putin and co and worse.

briefly
Guest

Rudd for the UN? Oh, nooo!! The UN has enough troubles already.

bemused
Guest

spur212@1545

Bemused

http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/04/19/rudds-long-plot-replace-ban-ki-moon/1397829600#.U1GsLycaySO

Not surprised it hasn’t been mentioned here that much (if at all) today

I haven’t seen any prior mention, but the usual suspects have already started to react.
William is a bit of a surprise though. 😉

confessions
Guest

[Dry season does mess with some in the hay fever and asthma crowd. Mostly later in the dry, I think, when it gets really dry and dusty, and the big fires get going.]

The thing for me is that everything felt dead during the dry. It was as if life packed up and shut itself down. As much as the temperature and humidity were much more bearable, I found the lack of life hard to deal with.

But in the wet you’re practically engulfed by life. I loved it, even though I found the gathering mould rather gross. 🙂

deblonay
Guest

Tom Paine.. please note this site (below) which is from a Swiss source and pro-Russian,but which puts up many new views on the world order

In today’s article the writer says that the Russians(of whom he seems to have great knowledge…I understand he is he’s a professional Military anylyst) are now determined to challenge the US hegemony across the world…dangerous but interesting in the long term

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.de/

briefly
Guest

[1536
kezza2

briefly @ 1530

I keep telling my story about truth and lies, and honesty and the whole damn thing.]

kezza2, I hope you keep on telling your story. We need trust and we need courage too and we need to know that dignity will outlast sorrow.

Just Me
Guest
[1504 poroti Just Me Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry Snap ! Love the Dry but even better when it is still green and lush.] Green is nice, just after it has rained is wonderful, love a good lightning show (beats TV hands down). But the 6 months of relentless high humidity, usually high temps, and lots of tropical sun, is wearing. Especially that build-up. I have air-con, but don’t wish to live in a box for half the year. Dry season does mess with some in the hay fever and asthma crowd. Mostly… Read more »
spur212
Guest

Bemused

http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/04/19/rudds-long-plot-replace-ban-ki-moon/1397829600#.U1GsLycaySO

Not surprised it hasn’t been mentioned here that much (if at all) today

deblonay
Guest
TON PAINE HAS LOOKED… ABOVE…AT THE INCREASING MADNESS AFFECTING SOME US POLITICIANS…PEOPLE LIKE MAD MCCAIN___________________ In the article below Pepe Escobar looks at the way the US feels impotent as the Russian-Chinese “Pipelinestan” deals links their two economies ,,across the “stans” of Central Asia…what used to be called”The Great Game.”.now pivots on gas and oil of which the Russians have a vast abundance The Euro dependaance of such gas/oil make the EU a natural western terminus for such resources.and would link The Euros/Russia/and China….Ukraine has a part in this vast linkage….but the US has none They would like to use… Read more »
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