Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 24, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties' polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Share

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Advertisement

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

1662 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Psephos
Guest

The real question is, how much is Putin paying Deblonay to write this odious lying crap?

(Posted from Poland, a country where they understand the truth about Putin’s fascist neo-Stalinist imperialist gangster regime.)

guytaur
Guest

@BBCWorld: Moscow says it will help free European military observers held in #Ukraine by pro-Russian separatists http://t.co/npAiKbgyZc

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight.

guytaur
Guest

Debionay

I have cited mainstream independent media sources. Reports of what is happening via tweet from usually the BBC.

Much as you try to blame the US you have to look at what Russia is doing.

BBC has journalists reporting from the Ukraine, Moscow and Washington. Doing its usual excellent job.

The kidnapping of journalits and independent EU monitors certainly have nothing to do with the US.

victoria
Guest

Cud chewer

Ask again tomorrow. Perhaps the bludger will be around then.

On that note, night all

cud chewer
Guest

Nope. All I can remember was they were both on visiting China. Soz.

WarrenPeace
Guest

With Palmer on Insiders tomorrow, an Interview with Ricky Muir in SMH and Icac Next week it could be for the libs, that old Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times”

victoria
Guest

Cud chewer

I dont know which articles were linked. Do you recall who posted them?

cud chewer
Guest

I might ask again.

Someone here posted a couple of links here a little while ago comparing and contrasting the treatment of gillard vs abbott.

Both had to do with that leader visiting China.

Anyone have those links?

victoria
Guest

http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/family-benefits-no-longer-a-sacred-cow/story-fnii5s3x-1226896747000

Family benefits no longer a sacred cow
April 26, 2014 10:00PM
Samantha Maiden
The Sunday Telegraph

JOHN Howard’s first expedition into the jungles of income splitting for tax purposes 20 years ago was described as prompting the media and his own party to react as if he had “sneezed into holy water”.

cud chewer
Guest

William,

Regarding the state breakdowns. Firstly, how does that add up to Labor being ahead overall? Is it just Victoria?

Second, has anyone done the stats and tried to see if there is a correlation between how state governments are going in the polls and federal polls? And is the correlation getting stronger over time?

bemused
Guest

mari@1646

Night Centre

Sleep tight

Thanks Bemused re the tablet no I don’t think so as my grandsons now tell me that when they are up here they also have problems like me with their devices in the bedrooms ie ipads and tablets

So it is not just your new tablet having problems.

Unless a new Router puts out a stronger signal and has a more sensitive receiver, it will not solve your problem. You won’t know until you try it out unfortunately.

Could a grandson loan you their router to test with?

WarrenPeace
Guest

Pegasus
So thr libs want attack free speech and mke it ilegal to voice an opinion

deblonay
Guest

Gaytaur
____
You need to think about the Russophobia you seem to be inbibing …and what about Counterpunch and statements of Roberts and others in the US like those in The American Conservative who oppose the Obama/Kerry policies and the neo-cons threats to Russia and quite mad statements like the cuop-leader in Kiev Yat… who says the Russians want a 3rd WW ,,,which is blatant nonsense

mari
Guest

Night Centre

Sleep tight

Thanks Bemused re the tablet no I don’t think so as my grandsons now tell me that when they are up here they also have problems like me with their devices in the bedrooms ie ipads and tablets

sprocket_
Guest

at least Tony Abbott can say the new “debt tax” on everyone is not a broken promise.

unless you count “no surprises” as a promise

deblonay
Guest

Re Malcolm Fraser calls for an end to the US alliance
____________________________________
In today’s Weekend Mag(Fairfax papers) Fraser is speaking of his new book
“Dangerous Allies” saying that our links with the US could lead us(as in 1914) into conflicts which don’t concern us

He says we should
>>close the Pine Gap Base
>> stop military games with them…notably naval exercises
>>Close their planned base at Darwin

and avoid entanglements with the USA everywhere

Pegasus
Guest
crikey whitey, Given one of your posts last night, you might be interested in this: [The City of Melbourne has flagged spending up to $155,000 on a memorial to two Aboriginal men who in 1842 were the city’s first people to be publicly executed. Supporters praised a recommendation that the permanent marker to Tunnerminnerwait and Maulboyheenner be built on a sliver of land at the corner of Franklin and Victoria streets. Close to RMIT and the City Baths, it is believed to be the actual hanging site. On January 20, in 1842, 5000 locals watched as the Tasmanians were hanged… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Peg/1638

Isn’t that a type of Censorship?

Social Media is doing what it’s suppose to do.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[La Di Da’s website boasts of all male strip ­revenues and burlesque routines and features ­dozens of photographs of a woman’s bottom clad in a G-string.]

One must miss the company of Alexander.

deblonay
Guest
Gaytaur… The Loot of the Ukr ___________ Paul Craig Roberts ..former Asst Treasurer to Reagan and former Editor of W Street Journal…says the USA and the EU are” preparing to “Loot the Ukraine” as they make a deal for debt repayment on a grand scale This seems an answer to your critigue of my earlier post which said basicially the same thing as does Roberts,.whom I read some weeks ago “Loot” being the operative word,as the Ukr Govt is now virtually the US’s puppet and powerless to resist…….. but as Roberts said it will be a very painfull experience for… Read more »
Centre
Guest

zoid

I’d be more concerned with Cozzie’s pay packet?

Bigger waste!

Pegasus
Guest
http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/facebook-could-bring-down-the-government-says-state-parliamentary-inquiry-20140425-zqzil.html [The Victorian Electoral Commission could be asked to beef up its regulation of political tweets, online smear campaigns and Google advertisements as concerns mount about the impact of social media on state election outcomes. A state parliamentary inquiry is investigating the influence of social media on Victorian elections and to ask whether online advertising, including Google AdWords, are properly regulated. “The use of social media has really outstripped the law,” committee chair and Liberal MP Bernie Finn said. “We have a situation where people can put advertising on social media without authorisation but in a newspaper, television or on… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@sprocket_/1635

So this is where all the money went to, Credit Cards, strippers, fancy restaurants.

Centre
Guest

Peg

What a hoot! So the Greens wanted more for the environment than their carbon tax and over charged price on carbon?

Do we need the Greens? If you want the country to reach record deficits and go broke…yup 😯

sprocket_
Guest
Looks like Peter Costello may well have been in the hammock, though he is denying it. Even so, is this what we expect of our Future Fund? [FORMER treasurer Peter Costello’s Future Fund spent $8000 of taxpayers’ money on a Christmas party at a venue called La Di Da that offers burlesque evenings; but it insists there were “absolutely not’’ any strippers. A catalogue of extraordinary spending at the fund reveals the end-of-year bacchanalia was small change compared to the $8 million in cash bonuses last year to some of the organisation’s 92 staff. There were also 88 credit cards… Read more »
victoria
Guest

[WORKERS will be forced to dig into their own pockets to pay off the country’s debt and families could face losing benefits as the Abbott government struggles to reduce the nation’s deficit.

Treasurer Joe Hockey and Prime Minister Tony Abbott are preparing to risk a backlash from voters by introducing short-term hikes to taxes, spending cuts and the tightening of means tests for family benefits.]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/workers-set-to-be-hit-by-a-debt-tax-and-families-could-lose-benefits-as-the-abbott-government-struggles-to-reduce-the-nations-deficit/story-fnii5s3y-1226896802364

bemused
Guest

mari@1627

Before I stagger off to bed exhausted, re the routers etc I have found the Netgear d6300 ADSL+ MOdem/gigabit Router/dual band wireless -AC 1600 with free delivery for $199.

My twitter follower assures me no need for as extender , he had a large house and no problem even though I have a windows laptop and android tablet and telstra as my provider.

So you agree anyone?

Your problems are confined to one tablet. Doesn’t that tell you something?

Pegasus
Guest
[Have the Greens ever delivered a budget reply?] The Greens Party always deliver a budget reply speech. Last year’s, 16 May 2013, Christine Milne: http://greensmps.org.au/2013-budget-reply-speech [The budget is the most value-laden of any document tabled in the parliament. It reflects the priorities for the nation and the future. The Treasurer said as much at the beginning of his budget speech on Tuesday. If you want to know what people and governments value, then follow how they raise and spend their money. The Labor government had the opportunity with this budget to manage the economy in a way which would care… Read more »
Wakefield
Guest

Many of the negative comments about the ABC assume that it should pursue an agenda of criticising politicians who are wrong. ABC as a public funded body should be reporting accurately on what is going on and who says what – we then make up our mind/read between the lines to decide what should be done.

Actually we also need some media outlets that campaign strongly for social and community benefit. And we need to put our $ in to support progressive media.

victoria
Guest
Centre
Guest

mari

me tired too, late night last night. Hey did you hear from Schnappi?

Centre
Guest

Western Sydney are celebrating, their team are in the grand final again for the second year in a row.

mari
Guest

Before I stagger off to bed exhausted, re the routers etc I have found the Netgear d6300 ADSL+ MOdem/gigabit Router/dual band wireless -AC 1600 with free delivery for $199.

My twitter follower assures me no need for as extender , he had a large house and no problem even though I have a windows laptop and android tablet and telstra as my provider.

So you agree anyone?

My thanks for advice and help tonight

BTW found this think it may have been posted but wouldn’t it be wonderful if #icac caught some big fish when this guy appears 😀

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/25/liberal-fundraiser-links-to-pm-and-mike-baird-icac

WeWantPaul
Guest

[I’d have to agree most of “At home with Julia” was pretty crass. Well below a standard expected of ABC.]

Of any self respecting broadcaster. We are all out of them.

Centre
Guest

That should be “NPC” at post 1618. It’s getting late 😛

Darren Laver
Guest

[I haven’t heard a peep out of FOABC since the Howard govt. Do the buggers even exist anymore?]

The buggers do apparently still exist:

http://www.abcfriends.org.au/

All the more shame that they were stone-faced silent during the ABC’s excesses when Gillard was in power.

davidwh
Guest

FOABC are out there campaigning against rumoured funding cuts. They would probably love some extra support.

deblonay
Guest

Anthony Lowenensteain comments on the Melb Zionist Lobby and Bob Carr’s denunciation of them and Gillard….The Lobby is basically Leibler /Danby and that crowd
___________________________

http://antonyloewenstein.com/2014/04/16/the-real-significance-of-bob-carrs-comments-on-israel-lobb

Centre
Guest

Wakefield

Your comment about profit taking is actually frighteningly correct.

The rest of your post in nonsense – all good 🙂

Wakefield
Guest

Centre – the share market bounces around for a range of reasons. Most of the commentary about such movement is pretty shallow.

ABC business journos reporting – bad day for the stockmarket/good day for the stockmarket based on minor changes is a waste of time compared with just reporting the facts. Same as “profit taking” as the usual explanation for a stockmarket fall after a few days of rises. Mindless.

confessions
Guest

[For example, we did not hear a peep out of them when the outrageously crass and sexist “At Home with Julia” was commissioned.]

I haven’t heard a peep out of FOABC since the Howard govt. Do the buggers even exist anymore?

Centre
Guest

deblonay

What’s to stop the Greens making a formal response, say at the NCP, to the budget announced by the government.

What a hoot 😆

Darren Laver
Guest

[The ABC have bought their ticket and now all they need to do is bend over and take what is coming.]

Graphic imagery, but apt.

Wakefield
Guest

I’d have to agree most of “At home with Julia” was pretty crass. Well below a standard expected of ABC.

dave
Guest
[ For example, we did not hear a peep out of them when the outrageously crass and sexist “At Home with Julia” was commissioned. With friends like that, the ABC does not need enemies!] The ABC have bought their ticket and now all they need to do is bend over and take what is coming. Where were the so called “friends of the ABC” when they cowered every time the tories shouted at them and the ABC slunk away like good little doggies with tails between legs. The ABC have been becoming more and more like commercial stations and then… Read more »
Centre
Guest

Wakefield

I now know you must be a LOON.

The only time when it is bad news if the stock market goes up is when you have either sold or are not invested.

deblonay
Guest

Centre you must try to understand …diffuicult thouyght that be for you…that our Parliementary system worls in a fairly obvious patternm

The BudGET is delivered by the Tresurer….  right
The Reply always comes for the Oppostion … rightg

That’s the system in the HoReps minor parties NEVER lead the reply debate

I hope that help you AND YOU STOP MAKING SILLY REMARKS ABOUT THE GREENS

wpDiscuz

Advertisement

Telling you what the others don't. FREE for 21 days.