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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 24, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties' polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

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1662 comments

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Psephos
Guest

The real question is, how much is Putin paying Deblonay to write this odious lying crap?

(Posted from Poland, a country where they understand the truth about Putin’s fascist neo-Stalinist imperialist gangster regime.)

guytaur
Guest

@BBCWorld: Moscow says it will help free European military observers held in #Ukraine by pro-Russian separatists http://t.co/npAiKbgyZc

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight.

guytaur
Guest

Debionay

I have cited mainstream independent media sources. Reports of what is happening via tweet from usually the BBC.

Much as you try to blame the US you have to look at what Russia is doing.

BBC has journalists reporting from the Ukraine, Moscow and Washington. Doing its usual excellent job.

The kidnapping of journalits and independent EU monitors certainly have nothing to do with the US.

victoria
Guest

Cud chewer

Ask again tomorrow. Perhaps the bludger will be around then.

On that note, night all

cud chewer
Guest

Nope. All I can remember was they were both on visiting China. Soz.

WarrenPeace
Guest

With Palmer on Insiders tomorrow, an Interview with Ricky Muir in SMH and Icac Next week it could be for the libs, that old Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times”

victoria
Guest

Cud chewer

I dont know which articles were linked. Do you recall who posted them?

cud chewer
Guest

I might ask again.

Someone here posted a couple of links here a little while ago comparing and contrasting the treatment of gillard vs abbott.

Both had to do with that leader visiting China.

Anyone have those links?

victoria
Guest

http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/family-benefits-no-longer-a-sacred-cow/story-fnii5s3x-1226896747000

Family benefits no longer a sacred cow
April 26, 2014 10:00PM
Samantha Maiden
The Sunday Telegraph

JOHN Howard’s first expedition into the jungles of income splitting for tax purposes 20 years ago was described as prompting the media and his own party to react as if he had “sneezed into holy water”.

cud chewer
Guest

William,

Regarding the state breakdowns. Firstly, how does that add up to Labor being ahead overall? Is it just Victoria?

Second, has anyone done the stats and tried to see if there is a correlation between how state governments are going in the polls and federal polls? And is the correlation getting stronger over time?

bemused
Guest

mari@1646

Night Centre

Sleep tight

Thanks Bemused re the tablet no I don’t think so as my grandsons now tell me that when they are up here they also have problems like me with their devices in the bedrooms ie ipads and tablets

So it is not just your new tablet having problems.

Unless a new Router puts out a stronger signal and has a more sensitive receiver, it will not solve your problem. You won’t know until you try it out unfortunately.

Could a grandson loan you their router to test with?

WarrenPeace
Guest

Pegasus
So thr libs want attack free speech and mke it ilegal to voice an opinion

deblonay
Guest

Gaytaur
____
You need to think about the Russophobia you seem to be inbibing …and what about Counterpunch and statements of Roberts and others in the US like those in The American Conservative who oppose the Obama/Kerry policies and the neo-cons threats to Russia and quite mad statements like the cuop-leader in Kiev Yat… who says the Russians want a 3rd WW ,,,which is blatant nonsense

mari
Guest

Night Centre

Sleep tight

Thanks Bemused re the tablet no I don’t think so as my grandsons now tell me that when they are up here they also have problems like me with their devices in the bedrooms ie ipads and tablets

sprocket_
Guest

at least Tony Abbott can say the new “debt tax” on everyone is not a broken promise.

unless you count “no surprises” as a promise

deblonay
Guest

Re Malcolm Fraser calls for an end to the US alliance
____________________________________
In today’s Weekend Mag(Fairfax papers) Fraser is speaking of his new book
“Dangerous Allies” saying that our links with the US could lead us(as in 1914) into conflicts which don’t concern us

He says we should
>>close the Pine Gap Base
>> stop military games with them…notably naval exercises
>>Close their planned base at Darwin

and avoid entanglements with the USA everywhere

Pegasus
Guest
crikey whitey, Given one of your posts last night, you might be interested in this: [The City of Melbourne has flagged spending up to $155,000 on a memorial to two Aboriginal men who in 1842 were the city’s first people to be publicly executed. Supporters praised a recommendation that the permanent marker to Tunnerminnerwait and Maulboyheenner be built on a sliver of land at the corner of Franklin and Victoria streets. Close to RMIT and the City Baths, it is believed to be the actual hanging site. On January 20, in 1842, 5000 locals watched as the Tasmanians were hanged… Read more »
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