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BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor's best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn't made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

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Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

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2311 comments

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citizen
Guest

[Budget 2014: Opposition calls on Federal Government to drop proposed tax hike
Updated 18 minutes ago

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has put pressure on the Government to drop its proposed income tax hike, labelling the idea a “broken promise”.]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-04/opposition-calls-for-government-to-proposed-drop-tax-hike/5429046

frednk
Guest
Pegasus
Guest

crikey whitey,

Thanks, yes, I did.

The convener of the Tunnerminnerwait and Maulboyheenner Commemoration Committee, Joe Toscano supports the proposal.

Joe is a doctor, anarchist and a refugee from Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s regime in Queensland.

He is a very interesting and committed individual who often stands as a federal and state electoral candidate knowing full well that he will always never gain anywhere near 4% of the primary vote.

ShowsOn
Guest

WHy didn’t Galaxy ask people if they think Abbott is a dumb muthafarquar?

sohar
Guest

The most interesting thing about the poll is that the LNP vote has a 3 in front of it. Erosion is occurring – that’s important.

zoidlord
Guest

@2303

30 April/1st May.

When are we expecting other polls?

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 58s

The #Galaxy Poll tables. #auspol pic.twitter.com/WZcKmEfnYF

J341983
Guest

a 4% drop in the primary isn’t good for the Government but 52-48 isn’t exactly headline worthy.

But I’m pretty sure MOST of the polling took place before the CoA was released.

I think Newspoll and Morgan will be interesting this week…

guytaur
Guest

@GhostWhoVotes: The #Galaxy Poll tables. #auspol http://t.co/WZcKmEfnYF

antonbruckner11
Guest

Pegasus – I seem to see John Kaye on TV more than any other politician in the state. I see him more often that John Robertson. He’s a one-man publicity machine. And very impressive to boot.

crikey whitey
Guest

Pegasus.

I hope you saw my post of thanks for your reference to the Melbourne Aboriginal murders by law.

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Should the Paid Parental Leave scheme proceed: Yes 23 No 65 #auspol”

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 26s

#Galaxy Poll Should the Paid Parental Leave scheme proceed: Yes 23 No 65 #auspol

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Is the deficit levy a broken promise: Yes 72 No 21 #auspol”

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30s

#Galaxy Poll Is the deficit levy a broken promise: Yes 72 No 21 #auspol

pedant
Guest

ShowsOn @ 2281: Yes. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/clive-palmers-party-misses-deadline-to-register-for-nsw-election-20140401-35wgj.html

A bad blooper indeed. With the quota for the LC being only about 4.5%, they would have been a lay down misere to get at least one upper house member elected.

gloryconsequence
Guest

Only 52-48? That’s trend. Labor wouldn’t be too happy with that.

frednk
Guest

[ GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2) #auspol
]

Just another 52% to labor

Pegasus
Guest
[PUP could win several lower house seats at the next NSW election if they run adverts saying “we aren’t Labor or Liberal”, just vote 1 for us.] [ShowsOn @ 2272: Except that they missed the party registration deadline for the next NSW election.] Perhaps the Greens will be the beneficiaries of the prevalent corrupt behaviour associated with some within the two major parties. John Kaye, Greens member of the NSW parliament: http://johnkaye.org.au/icac/ [The Greens will be introducing new measures in parliament to stop the revolving door between politics and industry, end the influence-peddling by lobbyists and curtail the corrupting influence… Read more »
crikey whitey
Guest

Dio.

I expect you know that Kate Ellis is married to Penberthy.

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-4) ALP 37 (0) GRN 11 (+1) PUP 6 (+2) #auspol”

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2) #auspol”

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 33s

#Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2) #auspol

guytaur
Guest

@bevanshields85: Get this: Former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally is joining Ten’s @Studio10au as a replacement for Ita Buttrose http://t.co/fVWcGJyYKv

crikey whitey
Guest
And perhaps even worse. A mate of the son is in the shed. Maybe Lithuanian origin. Heavy accent. Over the shouting, he agreed with me about the universal and already taxpayer funded nature of Medicare. And out of nowhere, suggested his view that the disabled should be put down at birth!! Citing the people cared for by Minda, South Australia. I expressed my disgust and left the ignorant fool to it. Thinking he should be ‘put down.’ It is of no wonder that certain speculation expressed here about Mathias Cormann gain currency. In its own way, Cormann and his association… Read more »
antonbruckner11
Guest

Any chance Rupe thinks Malcolm has done such a spiffing job neutering the NBN that he deserves to become PM?

guytaur
Guest

“@mumbletwits: 90% of opinion polls since the election have had the govt behind. Why does Sunday Mail think it’s so special?”

ShowsOn
Guest

[Excellent. Let us finally be rid of the wasteful travel expenses incurred by Howard and his wife.]
It wouldn’t surprise me if former PMs are exempted from the biggest changes.

Steve777
Guest

…[Clive Palmer’s] recent tweets suggest that he will instead head for the centre, juxtaposing himself to the Commission of Audit and its supporters. This is potentially a serious threat to Mr Abbott, but a diabolical threat to Premier Newman, with optional preferential voting in Queensland.

Maybe a rerun of 1998 is on the cards, with PUP in the ‘One Nation’ role. Then maybe (as Meguire Bob may have said) Labor wins by default?

ShowsOn
Guest

[ShowsOn @ 2272: Except that they missed the party registration deadline for the next NSW election.]
Wow, what idiots.

Was the registration 1 year out?

confessions
Guest

[@sundayteleed: Retired MPs to be stripped of free travel. Sunday Tele exclusive #auspol]

Excellent. Let us finally be rid of the wasteful travel expenses incurred by Howard and his wife.

sprocket_
Guest

[@sundayteleed: Retired MPs to be stripped of free travel. Sunday Tele exclusive #auspol]

citizen
Guest
Interesting exchange on Ghost who votes twitter site now: [Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius 3m @samanthamaiden @GhostWhoVotes Which website? Always seems to have pre-pub access to Newspoll, Nielsen, Essential. View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 3m @samanthamaiden @Colvinius @GhostWhoVotes He/she often hacks into news organisations. View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 5m @Colvinius @GhostWhoVotes oh come on Mark he’s not psychic he gets it off the website ! View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius 7m @ghostwhovotes Know anything about this upcoming Sunday Mail poll? pic.twitter.com/xVCIihMtcT]
gloryconsequence
Guest

Post #985 predicting the knifing of Abbott

Steve777
Guest

If Murdoch becomes convinced that Abbott is a dud, we can expect a concerted campaign in his newspapers for Abbott’s removal.

I agree. I wonder what the editorials will say? Maybe “a good government has lost its way…”.

pedant
Guest

ShowsOn @ 2272: Except that they missed the party registration deadline for the next NSW election.

frednk
Guest

Abbott’s support base in the Liberals is the mad right, every time one falls his grip on power must diminish. In my view time to start thinking about who the moderates would elect.

Come on down Malcolm.

Centre
Guest

I think it was about 4 weeks back that I forecast the top 8 in the NRL to be:

– South Sydney
– Manly
– Roosters
– Bulldogs
– Broncos
– Titans
– Tigers
– Storm

If the Dragons sign Benji Marshall they could unseat the yukkie Storm.

I always said intelligence should not be judged by the ability to string together a couple of sentences especially if you vote Greens 🙂

ShowsOn
Guest

[One of the big stories at the moment should be the risk posed to the LNP by the Palmer Party.]
PUP could win several lower house seats at the next NSW election if they run adverts saying “we aren’t Labor or Liberal”, just vote 1 for us.

J341983
Guest

I think the polling was Tuesday-Thursday or something like that?

Hockey said he was prepared to send the TPP vote to 40% … let’s see how well he does.

antonbruckner11
Guest

Citizen – Rupe has basically already got what he wants out of the libs: the kNackered Broadband Network. And like every good parent, he knows that children need occasional chastisement to remind them who is in charge.

citizen
Guest

It will be instructive to observe the level of Murdoch support for Abbott (as opposed to the Coalition generally) from here on.

If Murdoch becomes convinced that Abbott is a dud, we can expect a concerted campaign in his newspapers for Abbott’s removal.

Centre
Guest

pedant

The Fat One knows how to cut through, I’ll give him that!

J1983

Was the poll conducted before the details of a $15 GP co-payment?

I am looking at a 55/45 to Labor soon, hopefully.

pedant
Guest
One of the big stories at the moment should be the risk posed to the LNP by the Palmer Party. Mr Palmer has got to his current political position on the strength of his own money, and a mood for protest voting. But at some point, he is going to have to position the party on the ideological spectrum. There would seem to be no future in trying to be further to the right than the LNP, especially given his views on refugees. His recent tweets suggest that he will instead head for the centre, juxtaposing himself to the Commission… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Earl of Douglas ‏@ralphd2 6m

Sunday Heeral Sun 72% voters say levy is a broken promise. 65% say PPL should be delayed #auspol

J341983
Guest

Centre @2255

It said support for the Libs has ‘crashed’ – the last Galaxy Poll had them 50/50 with the Libs on 43% primary and the ALP on 37%…

I think ‘crashed’ suggests 53/47 with a primary at 37-38% (but not all going to the ALP)… at the very least.

guytaur
Guest

@SkillsyOz: ASADA about to issue infraction notices to Essendon players at Docklands …. http://t.co/gH4OwhQIfO

Diogenes
Guest

I think Mr Kate Ellis is the editor of the Sunday Mail in Adelaide.

crikey whitey
Guest

I could f’n weep.

I went to watch the footy in the shed.

Only to find father and son arguing, practically to blows (still might happen) over ‘bludgers’ taking advantage of the health system.

The father is a dedicated Labor supporter.

He is appallingly learning his son’s views to the contrary.

Dad asked where he went wrong with his son.

Foxtel, I said.

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