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BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor's best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn't made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

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2311 comments

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citizen
Guest

[Budget 2014: Opposition calls on Federal Government to drop proposed tax hike
Updated 18 minutes ago

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has put pressure on the Government to drop its proposed income tax hike, labelling the idea a “broken promise”.]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-04/opposition-calls-for-government-to-proposed-drop-tax-hike/5429046

frednk
Guest
Pegasus
Guest

crikey whitey,

Thanks, yes, I did.

The convener of the Tunnerminnerwait and Maulboyheenner Commemoration Committee, Joe Toscano supports the proposal.

Joe is a doctor, anarchist and a refugee from Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s regime in Queensland.

He is a very interesting and committed individual who often stands as a federal and state electoral candidate knowing full well that he will always never gain anywhere near 4% of the primary vote.

ShowsOn
Guest

WHy didn’t Galaxy ask people if they think Abbott is a dumb muthafarquar?

sohar
Guest

The most interesting thing about the poll is that the LNP vote has a 3 in front of it. Erosion is occurring – that’s important.

zoidlord
Guest

@2303

30 April/1st May.

When are we expecting other polls?

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 58s

The #Galaxy Poll tables. #auspol pic.twitter.com/WZcKmEfnYF

J341983
Guest

a 4% drop in the primary isn’t good for the Government but 52-48 isn’t exactly headline worthy.

But I’m pretty sure MOST of the polling took place before the CoA was released.

I think Newspoll and Morgan will be interesting this week…

guytaur
Guest

@GhostWhoVotes: The #Galaxy Poll tables. #auspol http://t.co/WZcKmEfnYF

antonbruckner11
Guest

Pegasus – I seem to see John Kaye on TV more than any other politician in the state. I see him more often that John Robertson. He’s a one-man publicity machine. And very impressive to boot.

crikey whitey
Guest

Pegasus.

I hope you saw my post of thanks for your reference to the Melbourne Aboriginal murders by law.

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Should the Paid Parental Leave scheme proceed: Yes 23 No 65 #auspol”

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 26s

#Galaxy Poll Should the Paid Parental Leave scheme proceed: Yes 23 No 65 #auspol

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Is the deficit levy a broken promise: Yes 72 No 21 #auspol”

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30s

#Galaxy Poll Is the deficit levy a broken promise: Yes 72 No 21 #auspol

pedant
Guest

ShowsOn @ 2281: Yes. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/clive-palmers-party-misses-deadline-to-register-for-nsw-election-20140401-35wgj.html

A bad blooper indeed. With the quota for the LC being only about 4.5%, they would have been a lay down misere to get at least one upper house member elected.

gloryconsequence
Guest

Only 52-48? That’s trend. Labor wouldn’t be too happy with that.

frednk
Guest

[ GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2) #auspol
]

Just another 52% to labor

Pegasus
Guest

[PUP could win several lower house seats at the next NSW election if they run adverts saying “we aren’t Labor or Liberal”, just vote 1 for us.]
[ShowsOn @ 2272: Except that they missed the party registration deadline for the next NSW election.]

Perhaps the Greens will be the beneficiaries of the prevalent corrupt behaviour associated with some within the two major parties.

John Kaye, Greens member of the NSW parliament: http://johnkaye.org.au/icac/
[The Greens will be introducing new measures in parliament to stop the revolving door between politics and industry, end the influence-peddling by lobbyists and curtail the corrupting influence of donations,” Dr Kaye said.]

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