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Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks is well in line with other results to emerge from a busy weekend polling cycle, with Essential Research still to come.

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The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

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703 comments

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Disasterboy
Guest

How about the government maintain services and the tax cuts by having a price on emission equivalents of CO2? 😉

Tom
Guest

The budget will be interesting. I know Abbott and Hockey are babes in the woods regarding finances and government, but I gamble they are using the Howard approach. Make dire announcements leading up to the budget, then reduce the measures on the night in an effort to convince the public that they are nice guys after all. Be interesting to see how gullible the public are… There again, there is no accounting for the stupidity of some politicians.

liyana
Guest
Yes Deblonay, when I was in the states I was horrified at the gap between rich and poor. The teeming trailer park city outside Chicago was eye opening…It took about half an hour to pass it on the train, it was so large…think of all those people unable to afford a roof over their heads.. But not only was there a gap between rich and poor, the gap was in many cases racial. The people serving in shops or restaurants or toilets’living’ on minimum wage or tips were all non Anglo..This is in NYC. My visit to the US was… Read more »
caf
Guest

[I’m pessimistic – the Libs are literally crapping upon the Australian public from a great height and a six point deficit is the worst it’s getting?]

No, they’re not – they’re only figuratively crapping upon the Australian public from a great height. No matter how bad it gets, they won’t be literally doing that until Abbott and Hockey are actually flinging turds from the window of A36-1.

mexicanbeemer
Guest
ESJ Two things Yes its true that the setting of wages is based on a number of factors -Educational levels -Range of and number of tasks performed -Business ability to pay -Economic factors such as supply of workers available Our wage structure is for the most part very good and doesn’t need changing. This brings me to your dismissing of Indonesia on the bases that its GDP is lower than ours, GDP is only one way to measure an economy ad the political poisition of a country. For example the U.S doesn’t include rural communities within its GDP read which… Read more »
briefly
Guest
From the census…. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6306.0/ In May 2012 there were 509,200 full-time employees and 20,500 part-time employees receiving $2,500.00 or more per week. The census stats do not show the breakdowns for these persons (those on incomes above $2500 per week – their incomes are aggregated.) But the information in the income tables implies the number in the top decile was around 1 million in May 2012. The median income for this decile appears to have been about $2220 per week. Each 1% in income tax levied on this group would bring in about $1.2 billion pa. This would apply if… Read more »
WeWantPaul
Guest

[There is an argument for Labor letting the deficit tax through. And that’s Labor needs to promise to raise tax at the next election and all it would have to do now is to promise to leave the deficit levy untouched.]

No there isn’t Abbott promised to remove 2 taxes, not raise any others, bring the budget back into surplus and to improve Government services, and provide a better NBN sooner.

that is what he should be required to do – or he should call an election

deblonay
Guest
Re Minimun wage _____________ In the US the Tea Party has worked to remove Minimun wage regulation from the law booksin many conservative states In State like West Virginia and many other people actually work for tips and that’s legal;…no pay…perhaps a modest $3 an hour …then they rely on tips knowing this fact one gives out of compassion or the person serving you goes un rewarded for their labor…all the payment on the bill goes to the management %100 …that what some stupid people like ESJ and others would like to see here If you travel across West Vinginia… Read more »
deblonay
Guest
A US writer in Reader Supported News Blog in LA,writes a very readable if rather deplorable history of the Ukraine since WW2,with the terrible history of murder and genocide commited by the groups leadf by a man called Bandera who with some accomplices murdered thens of thousands including many many Jews during WW2 These groups had aid from abroad abd have revivied according to this article ,and have been part of the great surge to the far- neo-fascist right seen in Europe recently…e.g Le Pen in France,and the neo-Nazi New Dawn Party in Greece http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/22940-focus-part-ii-meet-the-americans-who-put-tog very alarming story but ESSENTIAL… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

There is an argument for Labor letting the deficit tax through. And that’s Labor needs to promise to raise tax at the next election and all it would have to do now is to promise to leave the deficit levy untouched.

ShowsOn
Guest

SO BORED

daretotread
Guest
Edwina Wages works like this 1. Cut $100 off the wages of Fred on a very low income. 2.Austalia’s GDP falls by $100 per week 3. Now Jessica, john Jeremy, jake, jaci, joe, james, judy, Jason and joelene each pay $10 less tax. 4. fred and family only had $50 per week for discretionary expenses even before the pay cut, so now he looks for savings. He moves to smaller accommodation and saves $30 per week 5.Old landlord loses tenant and has to let to someone else. Because everyone’s wages are cut Landlord cuts rent by $15 per week 6.… Read more »
Fulvio Sammut
Guest

Good to know, BB.

Bushfire Bill
Guest

They get paid a lot, and the street behind Packers isn’t anywhere near as salubrious.

Fulvio Sammut
Guest

How does a channel 9 cameraman get to afford to live across the street from James Packer?

Yesiree Bob
Guest

There is really a disgusting cult of personality in Australia when it comes to the ilk of Packer.
They both should be charged and Packer should be stripped of his Cashino license

Bushfire Bill
Guest
Wow, Paul Sheehan has been eating his Wheaties. He’c come out full-on for Packer over the stoush. [David Gyngell has behaved like a thug and he should be charged for the crimes he has committed. He stalked. He threatened. He assaulted. Now he can pay. If Gyngell is not charged under section 93c of the Crimes Act then the police have a problem. We will find out soon enough if our two-law system – one for the rich and one for the rest – is rammed down our throats yet again. … The spark was the action of the company… Read more »
mari
Guest
Yesiree Bob
Guest

There is inherent racism in the Abbot Government, full stop.
How else to explain there wanting to repeal 18c of the RDA

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

665

Why should employers be allowed to pay wages that make it very hard for there employee to feed and house themself? Why should they be allowed to freeload?

Thomas. Paine.
Guest
[With the resumption of solid economic ground after the Asian financial crisis, the economic numbers have turned and, as many have it, Indonesia is on the way over the next three or four decades to becoming one of the four to six biggest economies in the world ] Would be a good idea to have good relations with them then, hitch a ride on their growth to a mature economy that will end up much larger than ours. Oh wait, they are not European so Abbott thinks he can treat them like a third world country….I hardly think if Norway… Read more »
Yesiree Bob
Guest

The MSM are full of hypocrites

Bushfire Bill
Guest

[Mark kenny on the deficit levy

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/deficit-levy-tony-abbotts-broken-promise-on-tax-is-in-the-national-interest-20140506-zr5fq.html ]

Gee, that’s funny.

I seem to remember Kenny saying that it didn’t matter whether Climate Change was real or not. The only important thing for him was that Gillard broke a promise.

It was Teh Politics, you see.

Yesiree Bob
Guest

It’s actually a moral issue. The people who argue for drastic cuts to the minimum wage should ask themselves this question, could they afford to live on the current minimum wage, let alone their proposed one ?
If the answer is that they couldn’t then it really is immoral that they demand that others do.

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight

mari
Guest

My poor old scrolling finger is busy tonight why anyone gives ESJ oxygen I don’t know. Nite all

Tom
Guest

Well ESJ if your LNP mates are so poor at running businesses and can’t afford to pay a decent wage, I suggest they go into politics…

WarrenPeace
Guest

A Liberal guy I used to work with used to say, whenever the subject of unempoyed or disabled came upthat society owes you nothing, I shoud have said but did’nt (he was my boss) then why should anyone owe society anything. Let anarchy rule, every Man for himself. Many Libs these days seem to think the same way

Steve777
Guest
Answer this – why would you pay someone a wage more than they are worth to you as the employer? So who or what determines worth? And where are these working poor going to live? In favelllas in the outer suburbs? Maybe in what are now National Parks? If people were paid what they were worth, nurses and teachers would earn a lot more than cirporate lawyers and tax accountants. Money is power. Normal workers need a way to combat it. They need to combine. After all, a corporation is a combination. The big end of town will still be… Read more »
imacca
Guest

[ But the idea of an increase in high income taxation rates is not something to be rejected out of hand. ]

No its not. But a “temporary levy” to deal with a bullsh$T “budget emergency” is not, in my opinion, the way to deal with the revenue issue that seems to be the root cause of what budget problems exist in Australia.

guytaur
Guest

@cnnbrk: White House climate report predicts more frequent droughts and other risks, calls for “urgent action.” http://t.co/no9wLIoy6M

Yesiree Bob
Guest

If Tiny thinks we need a deceit tax, then why is he scrapping the MRRT ?
Tiny you are not making any sense, the only people who think you are on to a winner over that are bottom feeding mouth breathers, like ESJ

guytaur
Guest

“@matwhi: .@mirandadevine new idea for a controversial column: be a better person. It’ll shock everyone! Try it!”

Jackol
Guest
Hmmm. Can’t say I’m impressed by the quality of debate here about the deficit levy. There are a lot of people here who have made the argument that one of the drivers of the structural deficit is the Howard/Rudd tax cuts. If that’s supposed to be a self-evident truth then surely reversing some of those cuts is a reasonable strategy. Of course it’s only going to be a small part of the solution and all those other approaches – cracking down on FBT, a carbon price, reducing tax concessions on high income superannuation etc – should all be part of… Read more »
imacca
Guest

[ Why work if the money you earn cannot even provide enough to feed you ? ]

Well, a Randist kool-aid drinker (or idiot LNP voter) would say that the motivation of being a contributing worker, rather than the ignominy of sucking on the public teat makes the calorie deficit and being ripped off by the employer worthwhile. 🙂

See, i can empathize and put myself into the mind of the ESJ types!!

doGs, but its a foul and putrid place. 🙁

Yesiree Bob
Guest

Edwina StJohn@665

Some people arent worth $16.37 per hour as employees –

What, like you ?

Keep digging ESJ

guytaur
Guest

@guardian: Workplace depression a companion of social and financial inequality | Clare Allan http://t.co/4HZMTMLrLo

Edwina StJohn
Guest

Some people arent worth $16.37 per hour as employees – hence setting a minimum wage prices them out of work.

Answer this – why would you pay someone a wage more than they are worth to you as the employer?

Yesiree Bob
Guest

@660, not to mention that paying less than a living wage is one of the greatest demotivates you can apply.
Why work if the money you earn cannot even provide enough to feed you ?

Edwina StJohn
Guest

Guytaur – I remember when the ACTU went on a junket to Sweden in 1988. What became of all that?

WarrenPeace
Guest

I can’t write what I said to my self when I read that Crap. I’d be banned for life

Yesiree Bob
Guest

@657, absolute nonsensical argument that has long been debunked

imacca
Guest

Tell me ESJ, why so keen to see employers get away with paying less than a living wage? Particularly at a time when there is no real pressure on the budget that couldn’t be relived by some fair and reasonable revenue collection measures.

guytaur
Guest

ESJ

Stop looking to the US failure. Start looking to the Scandinavian success

zoidlord
Guest

@657

No, that’s just stupid.

Edwina StJohn
Guest

Of course the long term unemployed welcome the compassion police keeping them out of work by pricing them out of the market.

imacca
Guest

[ but there is merit on both sides of the argument. ]

No there is not. You are an idiot apologist for economically illiterate morons.

zoidlord
Guest

@653

It is a bad idea, because people will have less money to spend, thus GDP growth will be slower.

imacca
Guest

[ Mark Kenny says Labor should be magnanimous and let the deficit levy through as good policy. ]

He’s an idiot. Its crap policy. Other stuff they could do that would have greater effect out into the future and would be more fair.

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