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BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

A pre-budget polling slump for the Coalition expands Labor's poll aggregate lead, crediting them with an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.

On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.

Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.

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1514 comments

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deflationite
Guest

Just got a leak of part of Hockey’s budget speech.

“For those concerned about the cost of the $6 co-payment for doctor visits might I remind you all that $6 is just three or four puffs on a Montecristo Grand Corona”

bemused
Guest
Mike Carlton’s column is a cracker this week, but then he has so much material to work with! ICAC gets a run…with the ‘Mike Carlton Media Forum’ with it’s Silver, Gold and Platinum memberships. [GOLD (Annual donation $100,000): In addition to the Silver privileges, you will be invited to six luncheons or dinners over any one year; a Hunter Valley wine tasting weekend with popular Paul Nicolaou of the Australian Hotels Association; and the offer of front-row seating at the Allphones Arena for September’s return heavyweight title fight between gambling mogul James Packer and television executive David Gyngell.] …. [Naturally,… Read more »
fredex
Guest

That “-” is a spacer, not a negative [wouldn’t want centre to get too happy].

fredex
Guest

Mark Kenny in the Fairfax ReachTEL article.
[The Greens party remains around its election mark of 11 per cent]
Greens at election – 8.7%

bemused
Guest

kezza2@1506

bemused

In all honesty, I can’t recall a treasurer or shadow treasurer who even came close to appearing so dumb.


Except for Howard, and look where he ended up.

I think Howard was able to put on a more convincing front and appear he had some vague inkling of what he was doing.

Of course the substance was different.

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

The results of the ReachTEL poll are available here:

https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/464770131235987456/photo/1/large

kezza2
Guest

bemused
[In all honesty, I can’t recall a treasurer or shadow treasurer who even came close to appearing so dumb.]

Except for Howard, and look where he ended up.

bemused
Guest

B.C.@1501

Mr Squiggle Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm @ 1458

why does Jo Hockey look like he’s been punched on the left side of his face too many times?


You normally throw a hook with your lead hand don’t you? So a southpaw would normally throw a right hook.

Isn’t Tony left handed?

So that’s what made him so dopey?

In all honesty, I can’t recall a treasurer or shadow treasurer who even came close to appearing so dumb.

victoria
Guest
silentmajority
Guest

@georgebludger high standard of wit for an amateur

Jackol
Guest

Mr Pyne has now been tasked with managing all communications with the mining magnate Clive Palmer

Wow. They really don’t want to pass anything in the Senate do they?

B.C.
Guest

Mr Squiggle Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm @ 1458

why does Jo Hockey look like he’s been punched on the left side of his face too many times?

You normally throw a hook with your lead hand don’t you? So a southpaw would normally throw a right hook.

Isn’t Tony left handed?

zoidlord
Guest

Now the crazies are back again, night all.

bemused
Guest

kezza2@1448

bemused

Alan Griffin . . . was hardly a great fan of Rudd.


Hardly a great fan of Rudd?

He was his numbers man, FGS.

Jesus, give yourself another Pullman Award. you deserve it.

He was also highly critical of Rudd in a number of respects.

He only supported Rudd as the alternative was so dreadful.

Dee
Guest
Diogenes
Guest

Marty

I think the Italians using the term “calcio” is similarly dodgy, trying to invent a heritage they don’t have.

When I spent a few months in Italy, they kept telling me about culture and I thought they were using the term interchangeably with soccer. After a few weeks, I realised they were saying “calcio”.

Dee
Guest
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s first term agenda now relies, in no small part, on the social skills of Education Minister Christopher Pyne. After three years wrestling with Labor’s Anthony Albanese in the rabid 43rd Parliament, Mr Pyne has now been tasked with managing all communications with the mining magnate Clive Palmer, who will control the balance of power in the new Senate. An email sent to Coalition staffers on Friday, obtained by Fairfax Media, reveals all communication with Mr Palmer must be referred through the office of the Education Minister and government leader in the House of Representatives, Mr Pyne.… Read more »
ShowsOn
Guest

I wonder if there will be some more budget media drops in the tabloids tomorrow.

Maybe some sweeteners.

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