Menu lock

Federal Politics 2013-

May 13, 2014

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research result finds little change on voting behaviour, while the monthly leadership ratings are the first from any pollster to show Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

The latest weekly result from Essential Research, a rolling average of polling conducted over the past fortnight, shows little change on last week with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39% and the Greens down one to 9%, while the Coalition and Palmer United are steady on 40% and 5% and Labor’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll also includes the monthly personal ratings, which are the first such results from any pollster showing Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, the latter’s lead of 42-32 last month crashing to a deficit of 37-36. This is down to a slump in Abbott’s ratings, his approval down six to 35% and disapproval up eight to 55%, with Shorten’s ratings little changed at 35% approval (up one) and 37% disapproval (down one).

In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25. The least popular measures were raising the retirement age and increasing interest rates on HELP debts. Respondents thought the Coalition heavily favoured the rich (54%) over the poor (5%) and the average Australian (22%), while tending to place Labor in the middle, with 34% for the average Australian, 16% for the rich and 22% for the poor. The poll found broad awareness that Australia’s national debt was lower than other developed countries (45% believing it lower, 22% higher), and a belief that large companies and high-income earners paid too little tax and small businesses and low-income earners too much.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

2295 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

Psephos, if you’ve a problem with your own words being used against you, I suggest you stop talking.

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #Budget2014, Disability Dance by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1sOdU5O

Psephos
Guest

[He explicitly said that Labor should let this travesty pass to teach the public a lesson about voting without using their brains.

Nevermind that the poor and unemployed will die as a direct result of these policies securing passage.]

Yes indeedy, I want them all to die. Bwahhahaha etc etc.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

Looks like the next BludgerTrack is on the cards.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ fredex 2289

I wasn’t saying that you specifically had said Morgan was biased, just that there is much talk of this being the case (and perhaps a statistical case to made that such a bias exists).

fredex
Guest

I’m guessing, I said so a day or so ago, 1-2% extra for the ALP 2PP for each of the pollsters, more or less across the board.
So Newspoll about 55%.

PS I don’t ‘insist’ Morgan is biased, I just take each of the pollsters with a sprinkle of salt.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

As for the next federal voting intention poll – if it’s taken entirely after today, then it will show Labor on at least 56.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ fredex 2286

Given the huge majority results, the finding is statistically significant no matter how much you insist Morgan has a bias.

I would have liked to have seen a further breakdown between people who thought the Budget would harm their bottom line and those who thought it would make no difference, however (in the given results, both of these would be recorded as “no, the Budget did not benefit me”).

fredex
Guest

I’ve had a closer look at the Morgan Poll results on the reactions to the budget.

Very interesting.

Firstly the rate of negative reaction to the budget for COALition voters is very high at 72% pre-budget and 76% post budget.
I wonder how many, if any, will change parties?

Secondly, the number of people overall who think they will NOT benefit from the COALition budget is a very high majority, probably around 85% [it’s a bit hard to collate %s without knowing the party base numbers].

So the fear generated pre budget changed only very little after the event and after the media had done their filtering trick – for all voters, Green, ALP, COAL and Other.
The media, thus far anyway, has not softened the perception of the public to the budget.

And ‘Others’ is interesting.
Like ALP supporters, more than 90% pre and post budget thought the budget would negatively effect them.

I wonder how many might switch to the ALP, even if just in their preferences, on the basis of this budget?

To the extent that Morgan is credible, this has got to be bad news for the COALition, Abbott, Hockey and Cormann in particular.

The next set of polls will be very interesting.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

I want the people of Australia to learn to understand and appreciate their political decisions too, but Psephos’ suggestion is just callous, petty and reckless.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ zoidlord 2283

He explicitly said that Labor should let this travesty pass to teach the public a lesson about voting without using their brains.

Nevermind that the poor and unemployed will die as a direct result of these policies securing passage.

zoidlord
Guest

@AS/2282

He would, Psephos is that of that of the right, the same right, where Coalition Party are in power.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ Psephos 2280

I’m sorry, but as you want the vulnerable of the public to suffer and die to win an argument, your opinion is hilarious invalid.

zoidlord
Guest

@Psephos

Cosgrove or no Cosgrove, cannot ignore the public.

Psephos
Guest

[The last fed opposition to block supply won in a landslide. Just sayin’.]

Only because the Governor-General dismissed the government. Do you seriously think Cosgrove is going to sack Abbott? If Kerr had not acted, Fraser would have had to back down. (That’s WHY Kerr acted.)

As soon as Labor says it will vote to block supply, reversing nearly 40 years of Labor policy, THAT will become the issue, not the content of the budget.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ ShowsOn 2278

A caretaker government, however, formed on the condition that it would immediately call for a double dissolution election.

ShowsOn
Guest

[The last fed opposition to block supply won in a landslide. Just sayin’.]
The Coalition was the government at that election.

Norwester
Guest

The last fed opposition to block supply won in a landslide. Just sayin’.

zoidlord
Guest

New Zealand also showing signs of Falling Housing Demands, but prices are holding:

http://www.propertywire.com/news/australasia/new-zealand-property-index-201405139118.html

“There were 5,670 sales last month, down 20.2% on April last year and down 22.5% compared to March while the national median price was $432,250, an increase of $41,750 compared to April 2013, but a fall of $7,750 from March. “

wpDiscuz