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Federal Politics 2013-

May 15, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

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1950 comments

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antonbruckner11
Guest

Various examples of hopocrisy:
1. You stuff so much food into your cake-hole that you need banded surgery, BUT you tell people they are responsible for looking after their own health;
2. You had a private school education, got a law degree for nothing and never had a serious private sector job in your life, BUT you say people should stand on their own two feet;
3. You claim the age of entitlement is over, BUT you can expect a whopping great government pension well before turning 70;
4. You pretend to be a man of the people, BUT the only real people you’ve ever met were serving food at North Sydney Forum lunches.
5. You pretend to be honest, BUT you lie in every sentence that starts with a capital letter.

frednk
Guest

[

Reply
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1
Cory Swanson via Google+
6 hours ago

This is why our elections are stupid in Idaho… you have to choose from the incumbent, some regular guy, gruff biker dude, and Santa.
]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfJJ4-AUyYg

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

Shankara
Guest
Shankara
Guest

Rupert Murdoch is the Dr Goebells of the 21st century
no other figure has been so evil or dangerous…funny that a small insignificant country like ours should produce the greatest of all media monsters…of which Abbott is a product ,,,carrying out the tha at thatcherite poison that Murdoch so loves

I didn’t even know we had jackals in Australia.

deblonay
Guest

Rupert Murdoch is the Dr Goebells of the 21st century
no other figure has been so evil or dangerous…funny that a small insignificant country like ours should produce the greatest of all media monsters…of which Abbott is a product ,,,carrying out the tha at thatcherite poison that Murdoch so loves

paaptsef
Guest

I’m investing in US private jail operators because that is where we are headed under the loony Libs, figure i’ll make a killing when they start locking up poor bastards who aren’t worth anything unemployed but 120 Grand to jail.

crikey whitey
Guest

No.

Foxtel has the latest in the series. About halfway through the run.

Don’t know what is meant by an internet only movie. Commercial value ones are produced by others then for example bought by Fox and shown on paid up to Rupe’s little goldmines.

If you know how to torrent and stuff, you can get around the pitiless not yet dead enough filthy corrupting creep.

One could almost have a tiny shred of pity for Rolf Harris, by comparison. Who, unlike that dhead, will certainly face gaol time.

NOT that I am inferring anything of that nature about Sir Rupes.

Merely a corruption of two or three democracies.

paaptsef
Guest
paaptsef
Guest

Is Game of Thrones an internet only movie?

crikey whitey
Guest

Maybe. He’s probably got this. Already. Soooooo jealous.

Send “Run To You” Ringtone to your Mobile

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Run-To-You-lyrics-Bryan-Adams/ABA930C65300E9714825687200146E96

paaptsef
Guest

even if Anne Hathaway doesn’t star

paaptsef
Guest

ShowsOn knows internet only movies will be made eventually

ShowsOn
Guest

When the feeling’s right, I’m gonna run all night, I’m gonna run to you.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Zoidy

Yes this government is very naughty for changing the way DSP payments will in future only increase in line with inflation.

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/1930

The rates you suggested are good, but it’s not going to happen anytime soon, it certainly didn’t under previous Labor Govs.

I suggested to Labor when Gillard was in power to increase the rent assistance to help those doing uni/ and other education pathways, I got a call back saying that was good, and all that, but there was no action.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Zoidy

Well the budget is every bit a political document, its a pretty poor financial document with several holes in it.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Dear Puffy, thinking of you

crikey whitey
Guest

Dear me. Puff.

Sorry about Shows On.

I think he means well.

William will take him home if he gets really out of hand.

wpDiscuz