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Federal Politics 2013-

May 22, 2014

BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

As you may have guessed in advance, this week's poll aggregate finds the pace of Labor's recent breakthrough quickening after a disastrous reception to the government's first budget, as Bill Shorten surges to a handy lead as preferred prime minister.

Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.

No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.

The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.

In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.

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1618 comments

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CTar1
Guest

fredex

[Its in “The Land”.]

The shrinking TAFE system particularly rankles in the country.

ShowsOn
Guest

HI MOFOS!

bemused
Guest
Rossmore@1602 Mikehilliard … thanks. I weep at the death by a thousand cuts of the public TAFE system. The rot started in Victoria under the last ALP State Gov who were bewitched by Treasury bright sparks into thinking a private TAFE market was the answer to skills shortages. It has created a whole army of private education rent seekers desperately trying every trick to squeeze money out of public education. The TAFEs with their long and valued focus on supporting disadvantaged students have been rolled by this tsunami. The only public TAFES that will survive are those that adopt the… Read more »
bemused
Guest
Rossmore@1597 On my commute into the melbourne cbd every second billboard seems to be a private education provider promising stellar careers for prospective students if they sign up for a course. Those billboards are not cheap. Ipso facto there is huge money to be made in private education provision. The budget gives these private providers a massive free kick by allowing students to pay for their course via HECS type arrangement. Dont believe a word from Pyne that they will be closely regulated. It will suck scarce education $ into a handful of spiv providers. Those same spivs who funded… Read more »
Jackol
Guest
Yes the demise of TAFE is a great shame. The entire education system in Australia has been in such a state of flux for several decades. So many shonks. So much traducing of teaching standards. The system needs some stability and commitment to support from government. And it needs to be held to account for the quality of its teaching. Having private colleges that pop into existence and promise the world without any consequence for passing any old crap standard and pretending that they are equivalent to the old TAFE system is a short road to ruin for Australia. Education… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

Worth a repost

https://newmatilda.com/2014/05/23/whitehouse-denies-lobbying-pm-cant-recall-and-400-people-saw-it

Given that much of the private “TAFE” funding is provided by State Governments isn’t this something that the NSW ICAC should be looking at?

Anyone care to advise how a private citizen can make a referral to the NSW ICAC?

fredex
Guest

[Henry
Lenore Taylor seems to have become quite the full blown lefty since joining The Guardian]

Which illustrates the suffocating impact Fairfax management must have had – probably still does.

Atticus
Guest

I can’t fathom how it’s possible to accurately model a meaningful Queensland 2PP when there’s already a PUP seat now and potentially more next election. PB’s with psephological expertise might be able to clarify this for one benighted as moi.

Raaraa
Guest

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #auspol

I would imagine most of the conservative percentages would be wasted on large majorities in rural seat, unless you get a situation where it’s independents vs LNP. It’ll be the Brisbane marginals that will be quite tight.

Atticus
Guest
Rossmore, Carr government minister, John Aquilina, ardently continued the push to greatly increase the % of TAFE students studying with private providers, a “reform” which began in earnest with Metherill/Greiner. Then this bogus “level playing field” competition was used as a weapon to explode the casual teachers’ portion of total classroom hours from 30% to around 70%, a false economy of the worst kind. Moreover, the bonus for Labor’s NSW Right faction was that it significantly diminished the resistance power of the TAFE Teachers union, from whose ranks had risen some of the most effective NSW Teachers Fed leaders, such… Read more »
briefly
Guest

[1596….Darn]

The historical precedent must still favour the Libs, but nevertheless I think it’s losable. They have shown an amazing capacity to get things wrong.

Henry
Guest

Lenore Taylor seems to have become quite the full blown lefty since joining The Guardian. I like it.

briefly
Guest

[1601…..mikehilliard]

Learning will always be less under a Liberal Government

slothy
Guest

“Obviously, only providers registered with the tertiary quality agency, TEQSA, could be eligible, and only for accredited courses; and there would be other important conditions as well,” the Minister said.

What poodle doesn’t say is that he is destroying TEQSA, neutering the gatekeeper tasked with maintaining standards. So soon the private colleges may be able to offer any old rubbish which will be at least subsidised funded by the taxpayer.

That $60k ‘investment’ in Ms Abbott is looking like the bet of the century!

Darn
Guest

[lefty e
Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:35 pm | PERMALINK
#Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #auspol

If my memory serves me: thats a 5% swing to ALP since Sept 2013?]

Bludgertrack currently has the swing in QLD at 7.6%.

Rossmore
Guest
Mikehilliard … thanks. I weep at the death by a thousand cuts of the public TAFE system. The rot started in Victoria under the last ALP State Gov who were bewitched by Treasury bright sparks into thinking a private TAFE market was the answer to skills shortages. It has created a whole army of private education rent seekers desperately trying every trick to squeeze money out of public education. The TAFEs with their long and valued focus on supporting disadvantaged students have been rolled by this tsunami. The only public TAFES that will survive are those that adopt the approach… Read more »
lefty e
Guest

[#Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #auspol]

If my memory serves me: thats a 5% swing to ALP since Sept 2013?

mikehilliard
Guest

Rossmore&1597

Education standards will fall under this government, in all fields.

victoria
Guest

Apologies if this has already been linked

[ACPET member, Whitehouse Institute, had a constructive meeting with Assistant Minister Sussan Ley and two of her advisors last week. The Minister spent several hours with Whitehouse staff and their VETiS students and took the time to asked extensive questions to understand the Whitehouse VETiS model. (This involves the delivery of VETiS in blocks over 6 weeks of the students’ holidays, not weekly release)]

http://www.acpet.edu.au/article/7828/assistant-education-minister-continues-pursuit-of-vet-in-schools-reforms/

lefty e
Guest

[On January 15, TEQSA awarded accreditation to Whitehouse to launch a new Masters in Design course. Whitehouse had been trying for at least a year for the accreditation.

TEQSA rejects any suggestion that the timing is anything more than a coincidence.]

LOL.

Sleaze for degrees

Rossmore
Guest
On my commute into the melbourne cbd every second billboard seems to be a private education provider promising stellar careers for prospective students if they sign up for a course. Those billboards are not cheap. Ipso facto there is huge money to be made in private education provision. The budget gives these private providers a massive free kick by allowing students to pay for their course via HECS type arrangement. Dont believe a word from Pyne that they will be closely regulated. It will suck scarce education $ into a handful of spiv providers. Those same spivs who funded Frances… Read more »
Darn
Guest
[briefly Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 8:58 pm | PERMALINK Darn, I think it’s a long way off and anything can happen, but the LNP have managed to unite the country against them and to discredit themselves. Their biggest problem is they have basically decided to close down the Government. It will be very difficult for them to proffer a positive program next time. No-one will believe them. So anything proposed by Labor will look much better in comparison. As well, I think voters will react viscerally to being treated like idiots. So I’m optimistic about Labor’s chances….but 2016… Read more »
mikehilliard
Guest

Rossmore@1592

A very good post.

Education lacks the sex appeal for the media unless it’s young virgins throwing their bodies under police horses. Meanwhile TAFE is white anted by all & sundry without barely a squeak.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #auspol

fredex
Guest

http://www.theland.com.au/news/metro/national/general/tony-abbotts-friend-linked-to-60000-scholarship-for-frances-abbott-at-private-college/2699377.aspx

This is an interesting article.
Not for what it says but because it says it.
Its in “The Land”.
Ultra conservative right wing nationwide rural newspaper that caters to cockies and their mates.

Not normally the sort of story you would find in “The Land”, they prefer stuff about wool prices and the like.
Very strange.

Rossmore
Guest
The private education providers are in it for one thing. The cash. The local one here offers a free Ipad to prospective students from their pop up shop in the shopping centre. What the poor mug students dont realise is that if they sign up for one of these bogus diplomas its their one any only chance at a decent level of fee relief for tertiary education. If they dont like it too bad, the private college will take the cash and sayonara to the student. When that student decides he/she would be better doing a recognised course at the… Read more »
mikehilliard
Guest

It’s so obvious!

[On January 15, TEQSA awarded accreditation to Whitehouse to launch a new Masters in Design course. Whitehouse had been trying for at least a year for the accreditation.

TEQSA rejects any suggestion that the timing is anything more than a coincidence.]

WarrenPeace
Guest

that should have been old Chinese curse.

mikehilliard
Guest

This Whitehouse stuff is all about funding. See @1556

[The Minister for Education, Christopher Pyne has outlined his views about the way the Commonwealth might fund TAFE and other non-university higher education providers under an expanded system as proposed by the recent Kemp-Norton review.

In a speech to Monash University, the Minister said that funding for Commonwealth Supported Places would require careful consideration.

“Obviously, only providers registered with the tertiary quality agency, TEQSA, could be eligible, and only for accredited courses; and there would be other important conditions as well,” the Minister said.]

http://www.tda.edu.au/cb_pages/newsletter_12_may_2014.php

Peter of Marino
Guest

Would it be a wise political manoeuvre if Bill Shorten were to advocate a Lottery or Sweep Stakes for funding nation building projects such as the NBN in the coming election ? After all it might be the only easily digestable way to get FTTP after Turnballs disgraceful demolition job. I reckon it will work.

WarrenPeace
Guest

Old Chinese proverb “may you live in interesting times.”
Abbott sure is
Look forward to seeing more interesting things tomorrow’
Good night all

Atticus
Guest

TAFE design courses have for decades been among those attracting the highest demand, so admission to them involves a very competitive and extremely thorough selection process.

guytaur
Guest

Good night

mikehilliard
Guest

Don’t forget, these private design institutes hate TAFE. And now TAFE students will have to pay big time.

Atticus
Guest

[Drip it out a bit at a time….]

dave,

I admire your choice of metaphor, as it conjures to mind a certain bottle of Grange which was involved in a recent ICAC hearing. 🙂

guytaur
Guest

“@AP: BREAKING: Putin says Russia will respect the outcome of Ukraine’s presidential vote.”

cud chewer
Guest

I don’t trust the latest gossip about the pingers.

dave
Guest

rossmcg@1578

Looks like Somebody at whitehouse has a grievance about something and is spilling it all to new Matilda.

They are doing great job

What goes around comes around.

Drip it out a bit at a time….

Bushfire Bill
Guest

[The latest Guardian’s article linked below gives all of Abbott’s and the Whitehouse CEO’s quotes that appear in the ABC News report…]

IT’s the ABC’s angle to get into this story by way of a “media controversy”. They can report on that and even be pro-Abbott.

After going along with this for a while they can start to properly investigate, if they care to.

Rossmcg
Guest

Looks like Somebody at whitehouse has a grievance about something and is spilling it all to new Matilda.

They are doing great job

BK
Guest

[Be quick. I am expecting a long queue tomorrow.]
Will the DT photoshop it?

Bushfire Bill
Guest
[I should add that my BS detector went off as soon as Abbott started making political mileage out of the pings.] I will be accepting apologies between 8am and 10am tomorrow morning, from all those who accused me of being a Tinfoil Hat conspiracy theorist. If anyone wants a signed acceptance, as evidence that there are no hard feelings, these will be issued throughout the week, for the reasonable fee of $10. Seeing as even the pings are now under severe doubt, I currently see my position on MH-370 as being at least into the “Plausible” decile, and perhaps closer… Read more »
mikehilliard
Guest

It really is looking more & more untenable for Abbott.

Atticus
Guest
Dee, The latest Guardian’s article linked below gives all of Abbott’s and the Whitehouse CEO’s quotes that appear in the ABC News report, and then it concludes with the following paragraph about Guardian’s ongoing efforts to get the facts from Whitehouse. Dare we expect that the same degree of investigative professionalism will be forthcoming from the ABC’s crack journos? [Guardian Australia has issued a series of detailed questions to the institute relating to the selection criteria for the “chairman’s scholarship” that Frances Abbott attained, who has attained it in the past, and what the application process is. The institute has… Read more »
Diogenes
Guest

I love the way Abbott is whining about The Guardians “dirt digging” but hasn’t mentioned News Ltd asking Fran’s fellow students about their disgust at the scholarship.

dave
Guest

Dio – I didn’t realise that.

zoidlord
Guest

Ebay now facing UK Commissioner and EU Data Authorities:
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27539799

And some US states are joining in the frey:

“In the US, Connecticut, Florida and Illinois said they were conducting a joint investigation.”

dave
Guest

The most relevant comment you can make about *scholarshipgate* is simple and fundamental.

What if had been Labor – One of Rudds kids etc for example.

FFS the tories tried to bring him down over a beat up old ute – attacking like a pack of dogs.

Now – ABC barely mention *scholarshipgate*.

Guardian and web outlets – to their credit do.

abbott squeals.

mikehilliard
Guest

Stuff Abbott & his brats. I worked to put myself through university & the day I graduated (no joke) my first child was born. Needless to say I missed the ceremony. 🙂

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