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Queensland Politics

May 25, 2014

Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

With an extremely difficult by-election looming, a Galaxy poll shows a better-than-expected result for Campbell Newman's Queensland government.

Brisbane’s Sunday Mail today has results on Queensland state voting intention from the same Galaxy poll of 800 respondents that produced yesterday’s federal result, and just as that result was better than might be anticipated for the conservatives, so is this one – the Liberal National Party leads 55-45 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47 at the previous such poll, from primary votes of 43% for the LNP (up two), 34% for Labor (down two), 8% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Campbell Newman has also widened his lead as preferred premier from 47-36 to 48-33. UPDATE: Kevin Bonham relates in comments that the poll has Campbell Newman’s approval at 36% (down four) and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s at 33% (down two), though disapproval ratings remain unknown (they were respectively 53% and 35% last time).

The poll follows shortly after the resignation of LNP member Chris Davis from his inner Brisbane seat of Stafford, which will precipitate a by-election on a date yet to be determined. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate conducted on Wednesday, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

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36 comments

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David
Guest
Latest news is Katter Australia Party Ray Hopper is switching to Nannago and letting he’s son stand in Condamine. It was an uphill battle for Hopper to hold Condamine but now it will be even more so because he leaving a seat he’s held since in 2001. He won’t have the incumbency factor to lean on for assistance. Also some people will view this move as nepotism considering he’s son is only 22 years old and wouldn’t have likely got the nod if he’s father wasn’t the previous MP. The brisbane times article suggests All three KAP MP’s will be… Read more »
David
Guest
@ Bird of paradox- The Palmer United Party MP your referring to in Yeerongpilly Carl Judge has already seen the writing on the wall and won’t be re-contesting the seat of Yeerongpilly. Instead he is going to be contesting Jarrod Bleijie’s seat in the seat of Kawana. Probably thinks he has a better chance there as Palmer United Party vote is higher on the Coast. Alex Douglas in Gaven is going to have a tough fight. Because that seat once use to be Labor’s and with the LNP/PUP splitting the conservative vote the seat might fall back to Labor. It… Read more »
Bird of paradox
Guest
A Tassie-style system probably makes more sense in Qld than any other mainland state, as the population is more decentralised. You’d still end up with some enormous regions, though. For example, with 13 regions electing 7 MP’s each (to keep the numbers roughly the same as now): one would be something like Warrego, Gregory, Callide, Condamine, Southern Downs and the two Toowoomba seats (probably returning 4-5 LNP, 1-2 ALP, 1 KAP in 2012). Some thoughts on PUP: the guy in Yeerongpilly is obviously gone. He came in with the LNP landslide, and even if he hadn’t’ve switched parties, he’d be… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

By the way the PUP vote in the federal Queensland Galaxy was 12%, so I don’t think the state figure could have been as low as 5 if PUP was a read-out option at state level. Looks like someone got wires crossed between PUP and KAP somewhere.

Raaraa
Guest

@21

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Tasmania’s lower house is 5 PR constituencies of 5 seats and upper house is single-member seats right?

@30
I wish that too but I think some people do love having 1 member to turn to in their area. MMP is a fair compromise.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Peter Murphy@29 Kevin Bonham@10: Possum Pollytics found there were many seats where four or five candidates from various parties had over 10% on 1st preferences. Many of these candidates would be PUP. Now 5% is pretty low, but there are areas where the PUP vote should concentrate nicely. Not Brisbane, but the electorates around it, especially the Sunshine Coast. So I’d expect at least 5 to 10 on top of the 2 they already have. (Actually, 5% really sounds far too low. Qld should be Palmer’s strongest state, and the Bludgertrack has the party federally at 7.0%. Doesn’t make sense.)… Read more »
swamprat
Guest

I wish the ALP would adopt a PR voting system for the unicameral Qld Parliament. It is more democratic, in that Parliament would more accurately reflect the wishes of the electorate, and would prevent these crazy over-represenatation by ‘landslides’.

I think the MMP like NZ should be ALP policy.

Peter Murphy
Guest

Kevin Bonham@10: Possum Pollytics found there were many seats where four or five candidates from various parties had over 10% on 1st preferences. Many of these candidates would be PUP. Now 5% is pretty low, but there are areas where the PUP vote should concentrate nicely. Not Brisbane, but the electorates around it, especially the Sunshine Coast. So I’d expect at least 5 to 10 on top of the 2 they already have.

(Actually, 5% really sounds far too low. Qld should be Palmer’s strongest state, and the Bludgertrack has the party federally at 7.0%. Doesn’t make sense.)

roger bottomley
Guest

So to answer my own question, if ALP got around the same swing across the state they would gain about 20 seats.

roger bottomley
Guest

Thanks Ross. I will take a look.

Ross
Guest

Roger, Lynham needs a 7.1% TPP swing in Stafford according to Adam. It should be a piece of cake, but who knows. This makes for good reading:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/qld/qld20123.txt

roger bottomley
Guest

Just got polled by Reachtel re effect of Dr Davis’s resignation.

roger bottomley
Guest

William or Kevin, what size swing would Anthony Lynham (ALP candidate for Stafford) require to win the seat in the by election. Assuming he achieves slightly better than that swing required say by 0.5%, what would such a swing translate to in seats if it was uniform across the state?

scott redford
Guest

I wonder about Galaxy at present. It depends who they asked of course. Whatever the numbers the LNP is in trouble even if they hang on in Qld they are damaged goods.

Kinkajou
Guest

They need a couple of cyclones and a drought up there

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

20

The Tasmanian Legislative Council does not have PR.

A Tasmanian style Legislative Council in Queensland would be very interesting and also usually very conservative.

Raaraa
Guest

@17

You mean replacing the unicameral parliament with the Hare-Clarke system like in the ACT or adding an upper house with a Hare-Clarke system? Or do both and get something like Tasmania?

nappin
Guest

Your are right ML (did I say that!) – need to see some other polling. The anger does not really subside, rather it morphs into greater distrust of all politicians. That’s the bit that worries me.

David
Guest
Should be an interesting election; Winning an extra 20 seats I think for Labor would a be a good result- 30 seats for Labor would be a great result. Between 10 and 20 seats would probably be disappointing for Labor. But despite Queensland keeping in long term governments and voting slowly in their conservative nature this LNP crowd has burnt to many voters. If Newman wanted to implement change it should of been done slowly- this was understood by Queensland Labor who effectively created change in doses each term which led them staying in power for 20 years. Newman and… Read more »
Jim McSlim
Guest

@Raaraa, or TAS style Hale-Clark/single transferable vote perhaps?

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