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Queensland Politics

May 25, 2014

Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

With an extremely difficult by-election looming, a Galaxy poll shows a better-than-expected result for Campbell Newman's Queensland government.

Brisbane’s Sunday Mail today has results on Queensland state voting intention from the same Galaxy poll of 800 respondents that produced yesterday’s federal result, and just as that result was better than might be anticipated for the conservatives, so is this one – the Liberal National Party leads 55-45 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47 at the previous such poll, from primary votes of 43% for the LNP (up two), 34% for Labor (down two), 8% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Campbell Newman has also widened his lead as preferred premier from 47-36 to 48-33. UPDATE: Kevin Bonham relates in comments that the poll has Campbell Newman’s approval at 36% (down four) and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s at 33% (down two), though disapproval ratings remain unknown (they were respectively 53% and 35% last time).

The poll follows shortly after the resignation of LNP member Chris Davis from his inner Brisbane seat of Stafford, which will precipitate a by-election on a date yet to be determined. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate conducted on Wednesday, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

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36 comments

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David
Guest

Latest news is Katter Australia Party Ray Hopper is switching to Nannago and letting he’s son stand in Condamine. It was an uphill battle for Hopper to hold Condamine but now it will be even more so because he leaving a seat he’s held since in 2001. He won’t have the incumbency factor to lean on for assistance. Also some people will view this move as nepotism considering he’s son is only 22 years old and wouldn’t have likely got the nod if he’s father wasn’t the previous MP. The brisbane times article suggests All three KAP MP’s will be lucky to hold their seats at the next election. Although Hopper “own polling” suggests that he will win Nannago and he’s son will hold Condamine- we have heard this tripe before. Just like Katters claims of winning 20 seats at the last state election and 12 seats at the federal election it was all baloney.

David
Guest

@ Bird of paradox- The Palmer United Party MP your referring to in Yeerongpilly Carl Judge has already seen the writing on the wall and won’t be re-contesting the seat of Yeerongpilly. Instead he is going to be contesting Jarrod Bleijie’s seat in the seat of Kawana. Probably thinks he has a better chance there as Palmer United Party vote is higher on the Coast.

Alex Douglas in Gaven is going to have a tough fight. Because that seat once use to be Labor’s and with the LNP/PUP splitting the conservative vote the seat might fall back to Labor. It will be interesting what will happen in that seat.

Bird of paradox
Guest

A Tassie-style system probably makes more sense in Qld than any other mainland state, as the population is more decentralised. You’d still end up with some enormous regions, though. For example, with 13 regions electing 7 MP’s each (to keep the numbers roughly the same as now): one would be something like Warrego, Gregory, Callide, Condamine, Southern Downs and the two Toowoomba seats (probably returning 4-5 LNP, 1-2 ALP, 1 KAP in 2012).

Some thoughts on PUP: the guy in Yeerongpilly is obviously gone. He came in with the LNP landslide, and even if he hadn’t’ve switched parties, he’d be one of the two dozen or so who go out with the tide. He might get a better than average result for PUP, but he’ll probably come third or fourth.

Alex Douglas in Gaven could have better luck, though. He’s been in for longer than half his former LNP colleagues, so should have some kind of personal vote. He could win as a quasi-independent. If Peter Wellington joins PUP he’d have a decent chance as well, although he’d lose some vote to Labor and the Greens.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

By the way the PUP vote in the federal Queensland Galaxy was 12%, so I don’t think the state figure could have been as low as 5 if PUP was a read-out option at state level. Looks like someone got wires crossed between PUP and KAP somewhere.

Raaraa
Guest

@21

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Tasmania’s lower house is 5 PR constituencies of 5 seats and upper house is single-member seats right?

@30
I wish that too but I think some people do love having 1 member to turn to in their area. MMP is a fair compromise.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Peter Murphy@29

Kevin Bonham@10: Possum Pollytics found there were many seats where four or five candidates from various parties had over 10% on 1st preferences. Many of these candidates would be PUP. Now 5% is pretty low, but there are areas where the PUP vote should concentrate nicely. Not Brisbane, but the electorates around it, especially the Sunshine Coast. So I’d expect at least 5 to 10 on top of the 2 they already have.

(Actually, 5% really sounds far too low. Qld should be Palmer’s strongest state, and the Bludgertrack has the party federally at 7.0%. Doesn’t make sense.)

How recently did Possum find that? It may have been while KAP were still flying high.

I’m not sure the reported 5% for PUP is actually correct; this figure shows as being for KAP in the tables. Total for Others (including PUP but not Greens or KAP) is 10.

But anyway, at the last election KAP had a quite locally concentrated support base and still won only 2/89 with 11.5%. Hence my comment about PUP needing well into double figures to be a factor.

swamprat
Guest

I wish the ALP would adopt a PR voting system for the unicameral Qld Parliament. It is more democratic, in that Parliament would more accurately reflect the wishes of the electorate, and would prevent these crazy over-represenatation by ‘landslides’.

I think the MMP like NZ should be ALP policy.

Peter Murphy
Guest

Kevin Bonham@10: Possum Pollytics found there were many seats where four or five candidates from various parties had over 10% on 1st preferences. Many of these candidates would be PUP. Now 5% is pretty low, but there are areas where the PUP vote should concentrate nicely. Not Brisbane, but the electorates around it, especially the Sunshine Coast. So I’d expect at least 5 to 10 on top of the 2 they already have.

(Actually, 5% really sounds far too low. Qld should be Palmer’s strongest state, and the Bludgertrack has the party federally at 7.0%. Doesn’t make sense.)

roger bottomley
Guest

So to answer my own question, if ALP got around the same swing across the state they would gain about 20 seats.

roger bottomley
Guest

Thanks Ross. I will take a look.

Ross
Guest

Roger, Lynham needs a 7.1% TPP swing in Stafford according to Adam. It should be a piece of cake, but who knows. This makes for good reading:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/qld/qld20123.txt

roger bottomley
Guest

Just got polled by Reachtel re effect of Dr Davis’s resignation.

roger bottomley
Guest

William or Kevin, what size swing would Anthony Lynham (ALP candidate for Stafford) require to win the seat in the by election. Assuming he achieves slightly better than that swing required say by 0.5%, what would such a swing translate to in seats if it was uniform across the state?

scott redford
Guest

I wonder about Galaxy at present. It depends who they asked of course. Whatever the numbers the LNP is in trouble even if they hang on in Qld they are damaged goods.

Kinkajou
Guest

They need a couple of cyclones and a drought up there

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

20

The Tasmanian Legislative Council does not have PR.

A Tasmanian style Legislative Council in Queensland would be very interesting and also usually very conservative.

Raaraa
Guest

@17

You mean replacing the unicameral parliament with the Hare-Clarke system like in the ACT or adding an upper house with a Hare-Clarke system? Or do both and get something like Tasmania?

nappin
Guest

Your are right ML (did I say that!) – need to see some other polling. The anger does not really subside, rather it morphs into greater distrust of all politicians. That’s the bit that worries me.

David
Guest

Should be an interesting election; Winning an extra 20 seats I think for Labor would a be a good result- 30 seats for Labor would be a great result. Between 10 and 20 seats would probably be disappointing for Labor. But despite Queensland keeping in long term governments and voting slowly in their conservative nature this LNP crowd has burnt to many voters. If Newman wanted to implement change it should of been done slowly- this was understood by Queensland Labor who effectively created change in doses each term which led them staying in power for 20 years. Newman and the LNP being out of power for 20 years went too fast too soon- and instead of having a guaranteed three/four terms in parliament, its now has been effectively squandered in two years. They will still win the next election but won’t be close to only the three seats Peter Beattie’s Queensland Labor had lossed in 2004 after the 66 seat win in 2001.

What I have read today- that Palmer United Party won’t be factor in terms of winning seats. The only two seats they have will be gone at the next election. He’s factor will come only in preferences – he will take protest votes away from Labor in the regional seats and he will split the LNP vote in the Brisbane and Coastal seats. For Labor, Palmer United Party can be just as much of a pest for them as he is for the LNP.

But the PUP vote dropping may also be a big reprieve for the LNP. Alot of LNP MP’s who are disaffected former Nationals feel this LNP government is too Liberal and the bush has been forgotten- may be tempted to jump to Palmer United Party. But they won’t do it if they think Palmer will cost them their seats by joining them before the next election. It’s the reason why no body is mentioning LNP Mp’s joining Katter’s Australia Party- because they understand it’s now political suicide. It also why KAtter’s Australia Party is now literally begging for a merger/alliance with PUP because they know they are a spent force and the Palmer United Party is the last roll of the for dice them.

Jim McSlim
Guest

@Raaraa, or TAS style Hale-Clark/single transferable vote perhaps?

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