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Federal Election 2016

May 25, 2014

Seat of the week: Canberra

The Liberals once won the seat covering the southern half of the national capital at a by-election during the terminal phase of the Keating government, but they wouldn't be holding their breath waiting for it to happen again.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s undeveloped remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south, which pushed the Canberra electorate north of Lake Burley Griffin to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolments of around 140,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 105,000.

The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, succeeding Lionel Murphy as Attorney-General upon his appointment to the High Court in early 1975. Enderby was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.

Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was easily won for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 prompted McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he had secured on the short-lived boundaries in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career that began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, since which time the seat has returned fairly consistent results with Labor margins ranging from a low of 7.0% in 2013 to a high of 11.8% in 2007.

Both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not seek another term six months out from the August 2010 election. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for the two seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s preselection was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left was to support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), which the Right was to reciprocate in Fraser by backing Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109. Following the 2013 election defeat she was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary in the defence portfolio.

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1955 comments

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shiftaling
Guest

Apologies if someone’s already posted Bob Ellis’ attempt to be the stopped clock that proves accurate:

http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/05/27/abbotts-end-37-the-last-nine-days/

zoidlord
Guest

btw, Labor, you succeeded in getting the budget off people’s minds while Pyne & Bronnie providing front pages.

zoidlord
Guest

Jason Clare MP ‏@JasonClareMP 8m

Media Release: Turnbull lies to Parliament on NBN http://bit.ly/1tIOC9B #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

I think Essential is having identity crises with one of the other pollsters.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Tom Hawkins
Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

Essential 52:48 (again)…

Under the Hockeynomics Eleventy Principle 48 is a larger number than 52

MTBW
Guest

Is this thread still alive?

Boerwar
Guest

Pyne positing a totured hypothetical.

The Big Ship
Guest

Tom Hawkins @ 1917

[Essential 52:48 (again)… Seemingly a stagnant pool of irrelevance.]

There is something seriously amiss with their methodology, in my view. It has to be the online panel they are using – Your Source – and they must have such a small pool of engaged panelists that they are going back to the same people too often. How else to explain the lack of change when all other pollsters are picking up substantial movements.

Time for William to tweak ‘BludgerTrack’ to take into account this ongoing Essential house effect?

The Big Ship
Guest

briefly @ 1902

[he WA Libs know how to pick ‘em. Cash, Bishop, Johnston, Jensen, Cormann, Porter…we are up to our necks in reactionary dimwits.]

Dawkins Deliver Me! What a disastrous lineup of duds and drones. I’d rather have a box of dead fish than a raft of imbeciles like that lot as my representatives.

sceptic
Guest

The Ten interview with Chris Graham was well handled, only Ita appeared to be banging the drum for Tony,

don
Guest

victoria@1928

Thanks fredex. I was able to get it. The journo from New matilda was very effective in explaining the scholarship scenario in a calm and measured way

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JD-rKrcfGFE

Must watch!

J341983
Guest

Bronny’s first LNP ejection!!!

meher baba
Guest
PS: It’s also interesting that Channel Ten of all places chose to run this story and have Chris Graham appear on their show. It seems to me that the PM and his team are currently doing their best to intimidate the media out of reporting this story any further: “don’t bring family into it”, etc, etc. A reasonable tactic(albeit arguably a hypocritical one). The way the media operates nowadays, it’s hard to know what stories they will run with and what they won’t. But I would have thought that the revelation (if true) that the only other such scholarship ever… Read more »
Bushfire Bill
Guest

So… it seems the keepers and custodians of the traditions of the Westminster System, are going to play strictly by the fine print?

They always do this.

J341983
Guest

Um… Essential (even taking into account its rolling nature) is the same now as it was the week before the Budget?

Seriously? Time to kick them to the curb. The internals don’t seem to be marrying up to the headline (if Abbott’s standing has ‘collapsed’) numbers…

Hmmm…

ruawake
Guest

So what Bronwyn?

fredex
Guest

meher
I’m developing a lot of respect for this Chris Graham fella.
When this issue emerged I checked him out and some of his past work, focusing mainly on helping to start up NIT.
Very impressive.
I presume he was around when ASIO raided NIT during the Howard years.

On this issue I reckon he’s playing it very smart.
He has got us on the drip feed.
Something yesterday, something today. a teaser for tomorrow. Interest builds.
Good for New Matilda and good for us if we can get an alternative source of information that contrasts to the MSM pap.

briefly
Guest
Fran@1915…making the indirect tax system more onerous does not make administration of the direct tax system any easier. It just diverts resources, makes the system more complicated and, depending how things fall, will depress production and real wages. That is, it will make the welfare outcomes worse than they otherwise would be. I reckon we probably agree that we should use the tax system to optimise welfare across the income/wealth spectrum. One way of achieving this is to keep things as simple as possible. To take your example of luxury cars, there is a tax on these vehicles. But whether… Read more »
Boerwar
Guest

Ms Bishop making a general statement to the House about what the Speakership means in the Australian House.

guytaur
Guest

“@Simon_Cullen: Speaker Bronwyn Bishop is starting #qt with a statement about the speakership…”

Boerwar
Guest
[Fran Barlow Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 1:52 pm | Permalink BW 1600 deaths is ‘mere eyewash’? No. The issue of “boats” (more precisely “border security”) being about “drownings” or “deaths at sea” was mere eyewash. Precision is important in these things. If people want to do nasty things to people fleeing brutality they should at least be candid about their motives.] As if 1600 drownings are completely irrelevant. The tide of Greens’ crocodile tears about the drownings has gone out, now that the drowings have stopped. But when the drowning were happening we had S H-Y emoting about… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

@Simon_Cullen: Senior AFP officer raises questions about security advice given to Tony Abbott on university visit http://t.co/9Uv0z1KEbj via @HeathJAston

guytaur
Guest

@craigjack36: #qt the Sideshow time
Let the Next episode of the
“These are the Days of The Abbott’
commence
#auspol http://t.co/eZPehN6sOu

meher baba
Guest
fredex@1910 Thanks for the link to the tv discussion. It is interesting to note that, on the basis of a quick google, Billie Whitehouse, like Frances Abbott, would seem to be employed at the Institute, as “Alumni Manager” (given that Frances is an alumnus, perhaps Billie is her manager). But I do find it odd that, apart from Chris Graham’s mention of this on TV, there has been no other reporting of this latest tidbit anywhere else: even at New Matilda. I wonder why this is? Perhaps further information has come to light which shows it not to be correct?… Read more »
Fran Barlow
Guest

BW

[1600 deaths is ‘mere eyewash’?]

No. The issue of “boats” (more precisely “border security”) being about “drownings” or “deaths at sea” was mere eyewash. Precision is important in these things. If people want to do nasty things to people fleeing brutality they should at least be candid about their motives.

[Your attitude may explain why you guys were content to use your BOP to maintain the drownings regime {to end the coerced rendition and cautionary public abuse of children and other vulnerable people regime}.]

You erred, but I corrected that for you.

Tom Hawkins
Guest

[Defeatism isn’t the answer.]

Of course it isn’t. Unrealistic expectations aren’t the answer either. This will a long, slow game. If you are expecting anything different then you will continue to be disappointed.

victoria
Guest

Thanks fredex. I was able to get it. The journo from New matilda was very effective in explaining the scholarship scenario in a calm and measured way

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JD-rKrcfGFE

spur212
Guest

I think this clip perfectly sums up Joe Hockey’s performance so far

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6rJiMxFiOc

citizen
Guest

[Hockey’s address was described to the media as “inspiring” and “Churchillian” and backbenchers were said to have commented about the budget:]

This sounds like a typical DPRK “news report” about the utterances of Kim Jong Un.

guytaur
Guest

@PoliticsFairfax: Australia’s Manus investigation has hindered police’s efforts to catch killer, says PNG source http://t.co/yP1O2IsfDG #auspol

Rex Douglas
Guest

Tom Hawkins

Defeatism isn’t the answer.

Shorten has taken it up to Abbott.

Chris Bowen has taken it up to Hockey.

Marles needs to step up or step back.

WeWantPaul
Guest

I am not accusing Abbott of corruption but having a body – particularly after the grange goings on- tightens up things and could investigate things. It seems 100% clear it was not a merit based scholarship and that is what Abbott said it was. That gives an appearance of illegitimacy – if everything is above board there would be no need to sneaky and hide what went on – would in fact almost certainly have protected daughter if it were above board.

Simon Katich
Guest

MTBW – thanks. its the sore head that brings it out. But I see your point. I like that he is in the mix. I once suggested that Clive becoming a new father MAY have changed the leopards spots. We have seen a lot of the Good Clive recently. We will see.

The way he has structured his party around himself is concerning.

citizen
Guest
sceptic
Guest

Tony & Joe rally the troops..
must be really bad news ahead .

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/27/manus-island-report-and-budget-fallout-dominate-parliament-politics-live

Hockey presented the budget was “a test of character” from which he and the prime minister “will not flinch” and claimed Liberal supporters had been “relieved” that the party was true to its values.

Hockey’s address was described to the media as “inspiring” and “Churchillian” and backbenchers were said to have commented about the budget:

“This is the fight we had to have. This is the reason for being here.”

I think the cigars & striped suites have gone to Joe’s head! Churchillian indeed

Atticus
Guest

[I think it should have been disclosed but the rules are too slack.]

Good on Fredex for the link. One panelist says wtte: “It’s really just a matter of hypocrisy.” Maltida’s Graham retorts: “Breathtaking hypocrisy.”

Fran Barlow
Guest

Oops … messed up block quotes and left in last paragraph, which Briefly composed …

Allowing that we agree to tax ourselves at some level, the main design criteria of the tax system should be it orders production and distribution in ways that maximise economic welfare.

Tom Hawkins
Guest

[Essential 52:48 (again)…]

Seemingly a stagnant pool of irrelevance.

briefly
Guest

[1900
sprocket_

@sprocket___: @chriskkenny Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith has quit the party & defected to become a minister in Labor http://t.co/EmYVaRFM2U%5D

It’s easy to suppose he will not be the last Lib to hit the ejector button. One thing is for sure: the current hoax is not your grandfather’s Liberal Party.

Fran Barlow
Guest
Briefly quoted me: FB@ 1181… I also believe we should have some way of evaluating “wealth” derived from lifestyle — so as to ensure that people who were substantially advantaged in practice contributed aptly, regardless of what their notional wealth/income on paper suggested. then continued: This proposition relies on the idea that a dollar in the hands of one person may not be worth “the same” in the hands of another person. Such thinking buys into Ayn Rand’s fallacy. Dollars are dollars. We have to eschew the metaphysics of evaluating extra-monetary lifestyle “wealth” effects. I am not interested in metaphysics.… Read more »
Tom Hawkins
Guest

Rex

Have you observed Bishop in the chair? If a question makes a minister uncomfortable she rules it out of order. You could put Keating up as shadow minister and even he’d struggle to grind the minister down in QT.

docantk
Guest

Essential 52:48 (again)…

victoria
Guest

Waterfront baron and Liberal Party donor scored inside running on Sydney freight hub tender http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/waterfront-baron-and-liberal-party-donor-scored-inside-running-on-freight-hub-tender-20140526-38zob.html … #auspol #ausbiz #nswpol
12:38 PM – 27 May 2014

briefly
Guest

[1853
Peter of Marino

Briefly @ 1787

Oh dear ! She would make a shearer blush…]

She makes many a roustabout cringe, P. She is a Liberal Princess too, an heir to her father, George Cash, one-time President of the Legislative Council. Talk about born-to-rule.

fredex
Guest

Victoria and possible others

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD-rKrcfGFE

That should get you the Chris Graham interview about the scholarship.

If not, try this procedure:
google
“youtube channel 10 studio ten”
When you get that page take the “Studio 10 – Youtube” option and the Frances Abbott topic should be on screen or listed in the RHS sidebar.

Rex Douglas
Guest

Tom Hawkins

Marles has facts on his side.

If he is incapable of forming an effective line of questioning with the solid facts on offer, he should return to the backbenches.

kakuru
Guest

[Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith has quit the party & defected to become a minister in Labor]

Fwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!

Rex Douglas
Guest

Stunning development in SA politics and Govt.

Mr Hamilton-Smith perhaps is showing up one or two federal libs for their past lack of courage. 😉

Tom Hawkins
Guest

[Morrisons management of the centres in PNG and Nauru has been inept and he needs to be held to account in the parliament.]

It is extremely difficult to hold a minister to account if parliament even under the most favourable of circumstances. With Bishop as speaker it is neigh on impossible to hold a slippery character like Morrison to account.

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