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Federal Politics 2013-

May 27, 2014

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

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1627 comments

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victoria
Guest
Bushfire Bill
Guest

I know I’ve made “Fat” jokes about Joe Hockey, but did I just hear Joe Hockey make a “Fat” joke about Clive Palmer?

(on ABC-24… “He looks like he has more than one meal a night…”)

guytaur
Guest

sceptic

Yes looks like it. Missed William’s post.

sceptic
Guest

Is there a new PB thread?

victoria
Guest

Okay so Clive is saying ghat Truffles hasnt changed his budget views

guytaur
Guest

“@latikambourke: Clive Palmer – dinner with Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t an official discussion. Says Libs have a ‘charismatic’ leader in @TonyAbbottMHR(Mocking)”

guytaur
Guest

“@latikambourke: Clive Palmer says he and Martin Parkinson talked about Princeton and the IMF.”

meher baba
Guest
Is the world going mad? Is Christopher Pyne a Labor plant in the heart of the government? Yesterday Tony Windsor metaphorically describes the Abbott government as grave robbers and then Pyne jumps up and merrily confirms that they are in a literal sense. If I were trying to advise this mob (and, frankly, they couldn’t pay me enough) I would tell them that the time has well and truly come to abandon a crash through or crash strategy. They need to curl up into a ball and make themselves a very small target. All they need right now to complete… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

“@latikambourke: Clive Palmer says they talked ‘chopstick diplomacy’ at dinner with @TurnbullMalcolm and Treasury Sec Martin Parkinson last night.”

guytaur
Guest

Palmer on 24 now talking dinner

guytaur
Guest

victoria

Well you saw my tabloid style speculation on reasons for that dinner.

The serious part is I think Palmer is looking after himself and if he can foster Liberal division he would be pleased

victoria
Guest

guytaur

As you know, i dont trust Clive. I will wait and see what comes out of his meeting with Truffles

guytaur
Guest

victoria

I have no complaints about Labor strategy. An example is Clive Palmer not embarrassed by having his photo splashed across the tabloids in a meeting

victoria
Guest

guytuar

Last night Kate Ellis was interviewed by Richo on Sky channel re the education changes.

As in QT yesterday, Labor is focussing on this issue.

victoria
Guest

Oh and i thought Pyne was the minister charged with getting Palmer on side?

victoria
Guest

Morning all

So Palmer had a little dinner with Truffles and the head of Treasury……..

guytaur
Guest

“@latikambourke: Govt’s @M_McCormackMP says the Government hasn’t broken ‘too many’ promises in #Budget2014.”

sceptic
Guest

More trouble for Abbott….

The NSW government has broken ranks with conservative counterparts in Canberra and the other states by declaring its strong support for the national renewable energy target.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-gives-backing-for-renewable-energy-target-20140528-394ri.html#ixzz33362ukwb

guytaur
Guest

@ReutersWorld: Why Japan and Australia are considering a submarine deal that could rattle #China: http://t.co/epoVQ58ezj

chinda63
Guest

[Clive has a penchant for encouraging disgruntled politicians to join PUP.

Surely he wouldn’t be inviting Lord Buffering of Wentworth? Surely not.]

No way. Mal would want to be leader and there is no way Cliev would have any truck with that.

guytaur
Guest

@ConversationEDU: NEWS: Students could be in debt for the rest of their lives. (Get the modelling + explanation of new research here) http://t.co/n5MwLLGNol

guytaur
Guest

Good Morning

Sprocket

How fascinating. Maybe Abbott has gone too far for Mr Turnbull with his arrack on Medicare or education.

Maybe he is ensuring the blocking of the repeal of the carbon price to ensure a real leadership challenge with Parkinson to explain the economics.

Maybe even talking about how to help Palmer out with his cost by an exemption from the carbon price debt.

Such delicious food for thought. 😀

sprocket_
Guest

Clive has a penchant for encouraging disgruntled politicians to join PUP.

Surely he wouldn’t be inviting Lord Buffering of Wentworth? Surely not.

sprocket_
Guest
Hmmmm.. Fascinating dining companions in a Canberra Chinese restaurant last night. Malcom Turnbull, Treasurt head Martin Parkinson (boned by Abbott) and The Professor himself. Tagging along it would appear was the Daily ToiletPaper. [Mr Palmer did not let on that he was heading to the real power dinner of the night. “This is the life of a politician, I have to go and give a speech to the party faithful,” he said as he walked out. “We have thousands of members all over the country.” Certainly the power that Mr Palmer holds through his independent seat is of great interest… Read more »
frednk
Guest

Those that carry on about debt should have a long hard think about who creates the money supply, and the consequence if the government creates no more. Good governments balance economies not budgets.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Furthermore according to the RBA wages have been falling in many industries.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Sadly the AUD looks set to remain in the low to mid 90s until at least the U.S has completely redrawn its money printing program and their interest rates start to rise.

Our RBA has a big problem as if they move to increase rates before the U.S does our AUD will more than likely move higher.

We are basically stuck waiting for the Americans to come to turn off the printers.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

silmaj

I agree that rents, regulation and taxes have created many problems but I am of the view that our wages are not excessive.

We are a high cost economy hence the need to have higher wages or we can have lower wages which will lead to less consumption & investment which will in turn hurt business revenues.

Lower wages are a short term fix with minimal long term benefit.

Lower wages reduces confidence which will only add to any economic weakness.

silmaj
Guest

1597
High wage, rent , interest , regulation and taxes have over time destroyed the ability to send product overseas. The Aus dollar has certainly not helped although we haven’t attempted personally for 15 years now. It is interesting to hear the political argument go on as I see deals worth millions go overseas. In fact very soon bucketloads work is going to the USA which has been developed here. The key to things not getting worse is not govt but monetary policy.

mexicanbeemer
Guest
silmaj Business has in recent times become focused on cost which isn’t a bad thing as private sector debt does need to be rained in although most of it is owed by the Banks. I sometimes wonder if business has by its main focus being on cost is in danger of overlooking opportunities for growth. I would like to see the government act to reduce the cost of rents faced by many small business. The cost of employment needs to be reviewed, the only problem is many view any such need as an attack on wages and conditions when in… Read more »
silmaj
Guest

1595
The problem with employment is not that we don’t have enough jobs. The problem is that it has become to costly to keep the basic job in Aus. It has been forced on employers to spend the majority of their time working out how to make a product in Aus and try to compete with someone from overseas who couldn’t give a flying duck about anything at all.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

The current labour market is soft even for people with G8 University degrees and high profile organisations on their C.V’s

Which makes the government’s newstart policies look short-sighted and nasty.

As Briefly has pointed out since 2011 incomes have been under pressure and as he/she predicted this government doesn’t seem able to handle that.

silmaj
Guest

1590
I know your in qld from previous post. Don’t right of a job. The problem with the current job market is that it is inflexible. Let me give you an example. You could problem earn an income by vetting internet enquiries for a business while the owner was passed out asleep due to being worn out. I would assume that this sort of employment is probably illegal.

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/1591

Don’t worry, I’ve tried applying for Government like jobs too! Including working for local councils, even my younger brother (he does construction) is having trouble applying for a job at local council atm.

zoidlord
Guest

Anyway, nearly 3am, time for bed, night all!

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Many Recruiters don’t view political knowledge as a skill! which is odd but is partly a result of many of them being from a sales/marketing background hence they don’t really value political knowledge.

zoidlord
Guest

@silmaj/1587

Believe me i tried getting employment, it’s quiet easy to say one thing on the web, than going through an interview with 1-4 panel and passing the interviews.

In John Howard days-Kevin Rudd days, I use to apply for jobs all the time, all over Brisbane/South East Queensland and locally.

Filled quiet a few little notebooks/paper they use to give us.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Being allowed to work for 30 hours is a far better option than the 15 hours.

Too often policy makers overlook the need for greater flexibility which 30 hours provides.

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/1586

Well, actually you can do both, it all depends on how much you earn too.

“Disability Support Pension customers can work for up to 30 hours a week and continue to receive a part pension, as long as you still meet the income test.”

As I said, debt isn’t a problem, but rather jobs is the problem.

silmaj
Guest

1584
Zoid your ability on this blog is beyond mine. There is employment in this game. So I wouldn’t rule out employment. I have been manufacturing Aus products within a family business since 1974. There is little future in my game unless a few things change. I would guess that our family business has employed 10,000 people over its time so we aren’t totally clueless.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

But if a job last less than two years one simply returns to DSP and if the job last longer than two years and the condition remains then one returns to DSP.

zoidlord
Guest
zoidlord
Guest

@silmaj/1583

Under the old DSP rules, you couldn’t work anymore than 15(?) hours a week, by the time they changed so you could do 30 hours a week, part-time job, I had lost interest, and had family related issues popping up (which continue to this day), as well as my own health to contend with.

http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/centrelink/disability-support-pension/allowable-working-hours

silmaj
Guest

1579
Well that’s a shame Zoid although I would have thought that perhaps a com/it partime job could be possible.

zoidlord
Guest
crikey whitey
Guest

What is that, Zoidlord?

WTFD We Care Program??

Sleep well you.

crikey whitey
Guest

Night too, Briefly.

Taa for that.

cw, you are a fiscal mastermind 🙂

I’ll add it to my tinfoil tiara.

Sleep well.

Count sheep, not numbers,

zoidlord
Guest

@silmaj/1575

No, I gave looking for work since my accident at WFTD program, some years ago, the place I was working in (aged care) couldn’t keep up with admin work.

Having been under Coalition government and Labor government, I understand why there is so many people unemployed.

Race to the bottom.

silmaj
Guest

1572
The higher foreign investment in bond the higher influence. You must have seen what can happen when the ratings agencies and large institutions decide you are in their sights.

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