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Victorian Politics

May 31, 2014

Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

With less than six months to go until Victoria's state election, new results from Essential Research confirm the general picture elsewhere in showing the Labor opposition with a modest lead.

An unloading of state voting intention data from Essential Research (see below for details from Queensland and New South Wales) has Labor leading in Victoria by 53-47 on May’s figures, a result well in line with the trend of polling elsewhere. Labor is at 40% on the primary vote compared with 38% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, and has consistently been level with or slightly ahead of the Coalition on the monthly results going back to November. Below are poll trend charts for the current term encompassing results from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL, Galaxy and Essential Research.

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35 comments

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Jason Reade
Guest

A few days before the 2010 election most opinion polls had Labor ahead 53-47 or thereabouts. Ended up LNP 51.5-48.5. I think Labor are looking good but Victorians are notorious for making their minds up on the day of the election. Also not sure everyone is convinced about Daniel Andrews at this point. There have been no issues during the past 4 years which would result in voters arming themselves with baseball bats.

Rocket Rocket
Guest

30 Rebecca – thanks for that. Interesting.

I found this quote from Enrique Peñalosa, a Colombian politician who massively improved public transport in Bogota.

“An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars, rather it’s where even the rich use public transportation”

And thinking of the major cities in Europe this seems very true.

I think that all mainland Australian State Capitals have fallen well behind in public transport infrastructure. And whichever of Sydney or Melbourne really gets their act together first will have a tremendous advantage.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

31

Prahran will be an interesting fight. The Liberals will try and retain it, the ALP will try and win it with Green preferences and the Greens will try and win it with ALP preferences.

Raaraa
Guest
Bugler
Guest
Leroy Lynch, My (far from extensively infromed) opinion from that is that the Liberals are reading a lot into what was probably statistical noise. I’m quite politically aware and active and I heard virtually nothing on the actual state budget, mostly just the promises they were saying they would put in it. I highly doubt the Liberals received a strong bounce off their budget as virtually noone knew about it. badseed, The candidate for Prahran is Neil Pharaoh, National Co-convener for Rainbow Labor, he is a very good campaigner, and it appears very organised, aided by the fact that Prahran… Read more »
Rebecca
Guest
Rocket, there is no such thing as the Kwinana light rail. There have been a couple of proposals for light rail in that general direction but none of them are within cooee of construction let alone being in operation. What has been a huge success is the Mandurah heavy rail line, which runs down the Kwinana Freeway and through Kwinana, and provided a fundamental and previously missing transport link. Light rail to Doncaster would be a white elephant. The area badly needs a government with the foresight to finally do what governments have been procrastinating on for more than half… Read more »
badseed
Guest

The ALP candidate for Prahran was at Toorak station this morning handing out flyers informing commuters that under Naptime’s rail plan the Frankston line will no longer be going to either Richmond or Flinders St.

I expect Prahran will be quite interesting on election night as the Greens usually poll well (just under 20% in 2010).

Rocket Rocket
Guest
lefty e I usually commute “against the flow” on the Eastern Freeway so I see the “carnage” first hand. If the contracts are signed before the election by the LNP surely what Labor has to say is “We will renegotiate the contract to include a light rail down the middle which goes to Doncaster Rd and then up Doncaster Rd to Westfield Doncaster Bus interchange.” I believe the Kwinana light rail in Perth has been a success, and I now think a Doncaster light rail would be worthwhile (and I didn’t always think so). I also spend time in the… Read more »
Leroy Lynch
Guest

This twitter pic shows the whole of the Saturday 31 May article which mentions the internal Vic Lib polling. Worth a read.

https://twitter.com/SpringStSauce/status/473001689046212608/photo/1

max
Guest
hmm, i wonder if Smith is just trying to get Shaw’s goat… and if it’s all talk. i guess he might be really bitter and twisted at having had to give up the Speakership, but so far as I know he hasn’t sounded off at Napthine so far. Shaw is gone for all money in less than 6 m months anyway… More generally polls are looking good – looks like around 50-51 ALP seats in the Lower House based on this poll – and this seems to have been the picture for a while now. Not sure that the Libs… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

24

Since the report by the Privileges Committee has been released, I would think that the vote would be soon. The Legislative Assembly sits on the 10th, 11th and 12th of June and I would think the vote would be then. I suspect that the Liberals are going to try their best to persuade Smith to vote with them.

If Shaw is expelled the week after next, I would think it a little to long to leave the seat vacant. The Liberals and ALP already have candidates, so the by-election could be held fairly quickly.

Raaraa
Guest

Seeing we’re not too far off from an election, could the Libs then hold off a Frankston by-election until the whole state goes to the polls?

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
21 For there to be an early election, either of the following sequence of events would have to happen. Smith votes with ALP (successfully) to expel Shaw, a Frankston by-election is called, the ALP win the by-election, the ALP pass a vote of no confidence in the government, the speaker resigns, neither side provides a speaker and thus confidence in the new ALP government cannot be established and thus a new election has to be called for before the end of November and thus the next term of parliament is shortened to just over 3 years. (possible but no all… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

20

Yes. Heavy rail is needed because it needs to be able to compete on the whole of the journey, into the city with no interchanging, not just the city end of the Eastern Freeway. Light rail would be too slow on the other sections.

deblonay
Guest
Vic polls The CFMEU had a poll conducted recently in Latrobe amd came up with a 60-40 pp vote I feel that that is likely given the hatred of the Budget/Abbott/Hockey etc…and this must tarnish Napthine’s unremarkable record Essential Info is always on the careful side in it’s predictions but I seem to recall that Neilson recently had a 61-39 PP figure in Vic for the Feds I doubt that anything could save Napthine,and Abbott will be a weight around his neck as he struggles to keep his head above stormy waters Andrews is a decent leader but most voters… Read more »
lefty e
Guest

[In order to be time competitive with driving, heavy rail is needed to Doncaster.]

Competing with cars that basically dont move at early peak hour inbound, and not that great late outbound ?

Leroy Lynch
Guest
That article that mentions Lib internal polling Louis Davis discussed is actually in today’s Herald Sun, not The Age. The main details are as Louis described, but I couldn’t find any link. It seems to be a small hard copy article only, I think it was on page 2 or 3 (I browsed through it earlier today). Its farly common for the HS to have small articles in the hard copy which are not reproduced online. James Campbell of the HS discussed some of the same Vic Lib issues using Newspoll polling a week ago, see his earlier May 21… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

On LNP advertising, every station on the Frankston line has placards trumpeting improvements to transport under the LNP.

Meanwhile my Metro app continues to alert me to daily cancelations and delays in peak hour on the Franga line.

The ALP should get some screen shots of those alerts and put them in a montage for their election advertising. Would be quite devastating.

You heard it here on PB first

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

14

In order to be time competitive with driving, heavy rail is needed to Doncaster.

bug1
Guest

Another way to put it is that Victorian state voting has ALP 1% above Federal voting levels.
Essential has it at 52-48 the whole month federally.

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