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Federal Election 2016

Jun 1, 2014

Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O'Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor's sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year's election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

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1728 comments

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Rod Hagen
Guest

Doesn’t Neilsen pulling out of Aus political polling deserve a thread of its own? http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/nielsen-ends-40-years-of-public-polling-20140602-39djv.html

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
meher baba Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink AA@1631: it’s crazy crap whoever says it, be that Joh Bjelke, Peter Beattie, Bob Katter, Kevin Rudd, Barnaby Joyce, Tony Abbott or whoever. I can’t think of a better way to waste taxpayers’ money than on the Northern Myth. From Port Essington to the Ord River to the Alice to Darwin railway. Waste, waste, waste. Still waiting for dual carriageway bridges over a LOT of the rivers. Roads still impassable when it rains. It will cost billions upon billions. But then as Tony has shown with so many… Read more »
Albert Ross
Guest

What is Rowan Dean?

Wasn’t he on that olden days TV comedy show “Laugh In”? You know the one with Goldie Hawn, Lily Tomlin and Jud Strunk.

scorpio
Guest

Looks like that last question came straight from Liberal Party Headquarters! 😉

deblonay
Guest
Meher Baba ________ Your summary re swinging voters and fairness is very true,and I fully agree with all your excellent points Another problem for the Libs on these matters is that unlike the USA there is a long history here ion Oz of Govt involvement in all aspects of the nationasl economic life In the US the Tea Party zealots are full on re their hatred of “governmemnt and the state” and this is a very American view of society,formed from a very different history…and geography to ours I think this is a great problemns for the Libs in trying… Read more »
sohar
Guest

So NP essentially unchanged, apart from a 1% swap between Labor and Green. The real problems for Tony and co will start when the uni fees bills are delivered to students and pensions are cut and people have to pay more for medical care, unemployment increases, etc. This is when the real big drop in Tory support will occur.

The Lorax
Guest

Krauss and Turnbull are the only ones worth listening to. Jones should gag the others for the rest of the show.

Boerwar
Guest

Bernardi has just confirmed that the Government is committed to the renewable targets!!!!

I don’t think so.

Utopia
Guest

[imacca
Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:16 pm | PERMALINK
This Rowan Dean guy is more of a kool aid sucker than Mod Lib]

I never imbibed.

poroti
Guest

Rowan Dean is a very high rotation guest on Paul Murray’s Sky Channel program. That is all one needs to know.

zoidlord
Guest

Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

Dear dear dear dear dear dear dear … Rowan Dean. So much confidence with his views, so little substance #qanda

imacca
Guest

This Rowan Dean guy is more of a kool aid sucker than Mod Lib. Notice how he seems to be playing the same tactic as JoHo. Just speak LOUDER and FASTER!!!

J341983
Guest

@1712 – told you!!!

Boerwar
Guest

Bernardi plays the victim. The 42% of Liberals represented in the audience are not all that enthusiastic for a guy who is not really a member of the Government.

rummel
Guest

Australia has acted on climate…… Move on and enjoy the tax or direct action

Rex Douglas
Guest

Retweeted by Political Alert
Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 3m
Tomorrow’s Newspoll 2PP Coalition 46 ALP 54. Primary: Coalition 36 (Unchanged); Labor 37 (-1); Grn 12 (+1) Others 15 (Unchanged) #qanda

rummel
Guest

What a QandA lol

BK
Guest

Between Dean and Bernardi the Tea Party is fully on display.

shellbell
Guest

BK

[Actually Lucy Turnbull has made a lot of sense tonight.]

Tom Hughes AO QC’s genes help.

J341983
Guest

Look at Bernardi and Dean… ladies and gentlemen, here is conservative cognitive dissonance made plain.

zoidlord
Guest

Kouk makes a point:

Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 22m

Again @qanda lots of economic issues discussed without an economist on the panel. #qanda

gloryconsequence
Guest

There we go again. Debt, pink batts from Dean.

The Lorax
Guest

Pink Batts! FFS! Rowan Dean has me throwing things at the TV.

BK
Guest

Rowan Dean is a disgrace!

Utopia
Guest

Are you guys enjoying Rowan Dean?

Boerwar
Guest

Dean really is thick.

sohar
Guest

Next Tony will say he is not part of the government.

zoidlord
Guest

SMH Poll now 30k:

Total votes: 30177.

gloryconsequence
Guest

Rowan Dean completely ignores all questions and goes straight to DEBT BAD in his response.

Every time.

Ask him his favourite ice cream and he will mention debt.

Boerwar
Guest

p
I think he was trying to say that because he was not in Cabinet he was not bound by Cabinet solidarity.

But who really knows what goes on in his head? The chap’s a religous nutter.

The Lorax
Guest

Why does Jones let Rowan Dean speak?

Utopia
Guest

Cory not being part of the government would make all our dreams come true!
🙂

bemused
Guest

confessions@1595

zoomster:

F*ckers could pitch the mother of all ever-loving fits for all I care. I want to hagiograph or whatever about Abbott’s govt, then no Liberal boxhead will prevent me from doing so.

Sorry if that offends some, but just throwing that out there in light of the conversation.

Well that post establishes one thing quite clearly. You haven’t got a clue what hagiography is.

poroti
Guest

Boerwar

[Bernardi does not consider himself part of the Government?

Que?]
Another LNPer deploying a barge pole to keep Tones at an appropriate distance ?

rummel
Guest

So Cory is not part of the Government lol… And I thought this morning was a train wreck.

gloryconsequence
Guest

Bernardi said he isn’t a part of the Government.

WTF is he on.

BK
Guest

Actually Lucy Turnbull has made a lot of sense tonight.

Boerwar
Guest

Bernardi drifts off to the Emissions Trading Scheme.

The Lorax
Guest

Bernardi is not part of the government!

Boerwar
Guest

Bernardi does not consider himself part of the Government?

Que?

poroti
Guest

Another great point from Krauss.

BK
Guest

Let’s have Krauss on QandA every week. He doesn’t get much time, but boy, does he make the most of it!

bemused
Guest

BK@1585

I’m happy to talk about a political death for Abbott but that’s where it stops.

I prefer the Harold Hold Chinese Submarine option. 😉

But I doubt they would want him.

Steve777
Guest

Shutup Bernadi!

Boerwar
Guest

r
Bernardi and the Mad Monk are both religious cranks?

sohar
Guest

What is Rowan Dean?

nappin
Guest

It appears Abbott is spooked by the bad publicity for his budget and wants to be popular.

I guess we are all allowed to dream. I think he’s lost his chance ML. It’s hard to recover when you’ve made such an impression you get John Oliver taking pot shots – not the popularity I think he was looking for.

Boerwar
Guest

Ms Turnbull trying to make Mr Turnbull sound reasonable.

rummel
Guest

What is going on! Why would the libs let Cory onto QandA…….

wpDiscuz

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