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BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor's post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there's no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.


A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.


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1,488 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

  1. Smaug

    It would be in testing to see the Nationals split out from the coalition numbers.
    If this keeps up the Libs will need the PUP to form government. I suppose or first real chance to see how PUP will affect things will be either Victoria or Qld. I expect the Vic elections week be anything but typical so Qld next year.

  2. Smaug

    It would be interesting to see the Nationals split out from the coalition numbers.
    If this keeps up the Libs will need the PUP to form government. I suppose or first real chance to see how PUP will affect things will be either Victoria or Qld. I expect the Vic elections week be anything but typical so Qld next year.

  3. meher baba

    So PUP continues to emerge as a force for change and renewal on the right side of politics: IMO a far bigger threat to the existing L-NP than the Greens are to Labor. A sort of Joh for Canberra on steroids.

    The Liberal Party today is increasingly dominated by a clique of socially-conservative Catholics who have come to embrace a rather extreme small government agenda. Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, Andrews, Robb, Loughnane and his missus Credln, even Joyce of thr Nationals to some extent. All devout Catholics (ie, people who would have struggled to rise to high office in the Liberal Party a couple of generations ago) and all rather extreme in their other political views.

    Not really clubabble people: be it at the city clubs favoured by Libersl luminaries of the past

  4. guytaur

    Good Morning

    Regarding theNationals allegedly being hoodwinked.

    Damage is done as the leaks did not come from Labor. I am looking forward to what Clive Palmer and the Greens have to say.

    Also J Bishop claiming their is a Labor Green Coalition just looks silly.

    The opinions that count are those voters in National seats of course 🙂

  5. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Because SBY didn’t throw Abbott out the door into a pile of monkey doo-doo, our beloved MSM traitors are reporting the doorstop visit as a glowing Abbott success. Meanwhile we get to see our PM publicly crawling like a bug to the Indonesians over the ‘few difficulties’ he created with SBY.

    Yeah, right roaring diplomatic genius is our PM Blood Oaf,

  6. meher baba


    or the yacht clubs favoured by white shoe types like Clive.

    PPL, targeted by Clive, is the sort of weird, Catholic policy that has no appeal in traditional conservative circles. It seems to be designed to encourage “women of calibre” to do their duty and get out of the workforce and give a chance to some of those souls waiting to be born. It uses up a lot of money that both Clive and the more establishment chaps would rather see spent on tax cuts or industry subsidies, as used to happen in the good old days.

    Turnbull – albeit a Catholic too, but culturally a very different sort of one to his colleagues – is much more your old-style conservative politician. Have no doubt: the rampant ineptitude of the past few weeks have seen Turnbull’s star rising in the boardrooms and club lounges of our major capitals. Chaps were prepared to give Tony and his bunch left-footers a go for a bit: they made the right noises and ran a great campaign against that red-headed witch. But they aren’t really our sort of people and they do have some rather odd ideas, you know.

  7. meher baba

    It sounds to me that Abbott went ok with SBY.

    But he’s only going to be a player for a few more months.

    SBY might be around a little while longer…:-)

  8. Psephos

    [Have no doubt: the rampant ineptitude of the past few weeks have seen Turnbull’s star rising in the boardrooms and club lounges of our major capitals. ]

    I think most of them would prefer Bishop. She’s a Protestant Thatcherite, more conservative than Turnbull, very well-connected with the WA business elite, and not as obviously incompetent as Abbott and Hockey. As I said before – Bishop for PM, Morrison for Defence, Turnbull for Treasurer, Robb for Foreign Affairs.

  9. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Our letter on educating girls: what the world can & must do http://t.co/5kQ03NvHM5 PM Thorning-Schmidt @Erna_solberg @BarrosoEU @APiebalgsEU— Julia Gillard (@JuliaGillardGPE) June 4, 2014

  10. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Central Park in NYC in 1933 pic.twitter.com/0dnw9km5do— Historical Pics (@HistoricalPics) June 4, 2014

  11. guytaur


    No matter what they prefer if a leader change happens it has to be to a popular leader. So it will be Turnbull. Those that prefer J Bishop will grit their teeth and keep up their agenda in cabinet.

    Of course I think they are not going to change unless forced to. Only the public humiliation of the senate rejecting the budget will do that. Until then clutching the straw that PUP will let things pass is what they are hanging on to

  12. CTar1

    People like Kevin Andrews, the much dissembling Hunt and the totally craven Turnbull are not helping.

    The claim that Turnbull, Palmer, Martin Parkinson, someone from the Liberal Party Administration and another unknown person all meet for dinner when they know most of the Libs/Nationals are at a Minerals Council dinner and don’t discuss the Budget are ludicrous.

  13. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    but none of that can overcome her major fault: she is Julie not John.

  14. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    They discussed bread sticks.

  15. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    China might put a cap on its carbon pollution http://t.co/mTW3EklpfU— Smithsonian Magazine (@SmithsonianMag) June 4, 2014

  16. meher baba

    Psephos: I agree that Turnbull is carrying some baggage which will make it hard for some to back him, but I still think that – now Hockey has revealed to all that he’s barely up to being a Cabinet Minister, let alone leader (the mystery being why anybody ever thought any differently) – Turnbull’s the only viable contender.

    It’s always hard for a woman to impose herself on Australian politics: Gillard did so, which is why she won the leadership in a party room coup (is she perhaps the only female political leader ever to do this?).

    Bishop has not imposed herself in this way. She comes across as professional, pleasant and competent. Not enough for a leader IMO (although, after the likes of Rudd and Abbott, some competence at the top would be a really refreshing change).

    If Abbott can’t turn things around soon (and I doubt that he can) Bishop’s name will emerge as the “anyone but Malcolm” option. I don’t think she can get there but, if she does, then for the sake of stability Malcolm can’t be Treasurer. He will have to be somehow forced to leave politics altogether. Otherwise, Bishop will go through a similar experience with Malcolm as Gillard did with Kevin.

    Meanwhile, Abbott will have shot through to revel in the large pension which has sometimes seemed to be to be his main motivation for wanting to become PM.

  17. guytaur

    I have to say congratulations to Mark Simkin on getting cabinet members to leak. He did so with the toppling of Rudd and now with the game playing of this leak about fuel excise games.

  18. CTar1

    Ptmd – And banana splits.

  19. guytaur

    If it had been Ken Henry at the dinner the discussion would have been wombats.

  20. meher baba

    guytaur@19: you are hereby sentenced to 10 years in the mines of Kolyma for failing to present the official PB dogma.

    Simkin is a Liberal Party mouthpiece on “their ABC”.

    Now please repeat after me…

  21. sprocket_

    If not already, people should follow this guy on twitter. Live tweets Alan Jones every morning, sometimes Ray Hadley.

    His live tweeting of today’s interview with Malcolm Turnbull is hilarious

    [@IH8SHOKJOKS: AlanJones says I’m not abusing you Malcolm.]

  22. CTar1

    US Politics:

    [EPA coal plant proposal is the right step

    Even for people who don’t believe in it, climate change just got real. It’s about time.]


  23. victoria

    Morning all

    Jonathan Swan fairfax journo tweeted this yesterday

    [My prediction is that @TurnbullMalcolm will not be doing Alan Jones tomorrow morning. Today’s interview was a terrible idea.]

    And this

    [Odd that “senior Liberals” would brag to a journalist about “playing” Nats at a time when govt under such pressure. abc.net.au/news/2014-06-0…]

  24. victoria

    This is the twitter feed sprocket is referring to. If these tweets are for real, why on earth did Turnbull go on his program!


  25. sprocket_

    Might actually be worth listening to the replay of Malcolm and The Parrott later, they are on to Chris Kenny’s canine rogering skit

    [@IH8SHOKJOKS: AlanJones wants Turnbull to sack the Chaser guys.]

  26. victoria


    Is this interview for real. Sounds unhinged to me

  27. victoria

    Goodness me. These people are vipers and bullies

    [AlanJones plays Turnbull hanging up after the call was over. Laughs & says what do you think that was about. Get back on the team Malcolm]

  28. CTar1

    Barnaby on 24 sounding like the idiot he is.

  29. confessions

    Morning all.

    Seems everyone is lining up to diss this govt. Even Howard has taken a few shots at Abbott and his team!

  30. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Dear old Johnny derides Abbott’s reliance on slogans.
    This hearing will be worth watching.
    Big call Tone.
    More pressure on households’ disposable income.
    To not go after these leeches is indefensible and questions must be asked of the ATO and the Ministers in charge.
    The value of Senate Estimates hearings demonstrated again. Where’s the Cambodia AS resettlement money in the budget?
    Mark Latham explains the Clive Palmer show.
    More lawyers to be added to Morriscum’s blacklist?
    Surely Abbott’s red tape reduction would allow the market to get away with this. Green lights everywhere.

  31. confessions

    I feel so sorry for the next generation heading off to university. How will they ever get into the housing market when they’ll be saddled with education debt?

    [Universities Australia said it could take engineers up to 33 years to clear their HECS debt – longer than it takes to pay off their home. Under changes, universities will be able to set their own fees for degrees, Federal funding for courses will be cut 20 per cent, the income threshold for repayments lowered to $50,638 and student debts indexed to the 10-year Treasury bond rate, capped at 6 per cent, instead of the consumer price index. Universities Australia modelling on the impact of the changes on engineering and nursing students reveals their debts will at least double and take up to 15 years longer to repay.

    Under the current system, an engineering graduate has a $37,319 debt after their four-year degree. Based on a $56,000 starting salary, rising to $90,000 after eight years full-time work, it will take them 14 years to pay off $46,701 in debt and interest.]

  32. victoria


    As i posited yesterday, the relevations from New matilda re the changes to funding etc. should form part of Labor’s attack on Abbott, Pyne and Co. I dont know why Labor are being silent to date

    [More links are emerging between private ‘for profit’ colleges and the Liberal Party, amid growing concerns at Abbott Government reforms to higher education which will shift almost $1 billion of public funding into the private sector.]


  33. confessions


    Agreed. There are so many ways the opposition can lay into the govt on education alone.

  34. victoria

    Just saw excerpt of Barnaby Joyce being asked about the “dudding” of Nationals re fuel excise. He looked quite flat and said wtte that he trusts his colleagues. He did not sound too convincing.

  35. Chris Hartwell


    Makes me glad my HECS-based engineering learning is long past!

  36. AussieAchmed

    So for a new Liberal leader we are looking for someone who is the least obviously incompetent?

  37. Psephos

    [It’s always hard for a woman to impose herself on Australian politics: Gillard did so, which is why she won the leadership in a party room coup (is she perhaps the only female political leader ever to do this?).]

    Thatcher rolled Ted Heath in 1975. It wasn’t a coup in the sense of an ambush, but she challenged him and won.

  38. pedant

    I was talking recently to a friend in her mid 50s with children in their 20s, and she made the cogent point that the HECS changes are unfair because families have made financial decisions based on reasonable assumptions that the rules will be stable. In her case, she didn’t feel the need to help her daughter pay her HECS debt as a way of getting a start, and instead put more into her own super. Now that money is locked away, and her daughter will need help that her parents can no longer give.

    There’s a basic unfairness here: if you get a mortgage, you know the interest rate will be variable, and accept that risk. Not so with HECS up until now. In that sense, the HECS changes are clearly retrospective, and should be opposed, at least for those who already have debts, for that reason alone.

  39. AussieAchmed

    While everyone is having a say on the increase in University fees and the almost doubling of the interest rate applied, little is being said about the 20% cut in University funding.

    I well remember the howls and yelps from the Abbott opposition and Universities when Labor was cutting the annual funding increases, not cutting the funding just the annual increases. And that money was going to help fund better secondary and primary education.

    But now the Liberals are slashing the actual funding it is being allowed to go through without comment

  40. Tom Hawkins

    [Just saw excerpt of Barnaby Joyce being asked about the “dudding” of Nationals re fuel excise. He looked quite flat and said wtte that he trusts his colleagues. He did not sound too convincing.]

    Probably hung over as usual.

  41. AussieAchmed

    JOE Hockey has defended the government’s record on stopping the boats, arguing there are now “no children floating in the ocean” between Australia and East Timor.

    I wonder how he defends his statement that unaccompanied children in detention would only happen “over my dead body”.

  42. confessions


    That’s the kind of reasoning I was thinking parents with teenage children might be coming to.

  43. sprocket_

    A rare appearance by the evil ones henchman Chris Mitchell is revealing

    [In a rare public appearance to mark the Australian newspaper’s 50th anniversary, Mitchell said the broadsheet newspaper was worth $50m in “cover price revenue” alone and it was too soon to walk away from print. However, he appeared to differ from Murdoch’s point of view when he told a session at the Mumbrella360 conference there “will be a time when print won’t be viable”.

    Mitchell, who admitted his newspaper ran at a significant loss – $30m a year – said Fairfax’s Sydney Morning Herald had declined in quality since its best days under the legendary editor John Alexander in the 1990s.

    “I think it is a bit sad that the Herald is reverse publishing Twitter now, and I am not the only one who’s made that assessment,” Mitchell, who has been the editor-in-chief for 11 years, said.

    “I would like strong competitors in the media. I think the conversation is happening in kind of a left echo chamber.”

    He said he didn’t have a Twitter account and wouldn’t be getting one but he did “follow and look carefully at the tweets of my own staff”.

    “Sometimes I think people get too political in their tweets and they engage in too much banter on Twitter with their opponents and I discourage that. I’d like to see them use Twitter to market their stories.”

    Mitchell admitted he was a campaigning editor and said his comprehensive coverage of billionaire Clive Palmer was in the national interest.

    “We’re having a bit of a campaign about Clive Palmer at the moment and I would argue that that is in the national interest,” Mitchell said.

    “Here we have a man whose senators may control the balance of the Senate and not many Australians know much about Clive. We are not campaigning to hurt Clive, we’re trying through pretty rigorous reporting led by Hedley Thomas to look at Clive’s real business interests and his real views.”]


  44. Psephos

    [I wonder how he defends his statement that unaccompanied children in detention would only happen “over my dead body”.]

    Hockey’s patently phony grandstanding at the time of the Malaysia debate is (in my opinion) the thing that has most discredited him. I can respect people on both sides of this debate who have strong views and stick by them and cop the flak accordingly. I have nothing but contempt for Hockey’s crocodile tears, no shown to be completely bogus.

  45. victoria

    Tom Hawkins

    I did think he may have been hungover

  46. victoria

    Has the govt taken into account that the shift from public to private debt re higher educafion costs, is going to affect the wider economy?
    Simply put if the next generation are needing to allocate most of their funds into repayment of student loans and housing costs, what is left for them to contribute to the wider economy?


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