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BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor's post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there's no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

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1488 comments

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ShowsOn
Guest

[Again
Does anybody know why Hawke said this?]
Because it is TRUE!

What the polls say this far out from an election are a terrible guide to what the election outcome will be like.

People who want Abbott to lose the next election need to remind themselves of this fact constantly.

Boerwar
Guest

Four Corners is distressing. Topic is rape, etc, in ADFA.

Paul
Guest

QUESTION

Does anybody know why Hawke said

while the Abbott government was ”not travelling well” and could be beaten if an election were held now, he did not think this would last and predicted the ”the polls will change somewhat”.

I know Hawke is aging and he has been writing for the Australian.
Whether either of these facts are relevant I don’t know.

Again
Does anybody know why Hawke said this?

Fran Barlow
Guest
TaxiLurker
Guest

I think the Canooks are in as bad political doo doo as we find ourselves so I sent this blog to the 24 Percent Majority website:TaxiLurkerJune 4, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Dave, Orstralia calling here. Just wanted to give you the hands up that our recently elected PM is winging his way towards your bonza country on what can only be fact finding mission on the wonders of conservative government in Canada. Now Tony Abbott is the leader of the Liberal party of Australia but don’t be confused because that’s our version of the conservative party in Oz ( might be because we live in the opposite hemisphere).
Unfortunately for Tonnes his recent budget hasn’t gone down to well with the general public. Those lower class types are getting upperty about inequality between the rich and the other ninety percent of the population. Even the septic tanks south of your boarder have made fun of him : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3IaKVmkXuk
Now if Mr Harper could just show him some of the nuances on how to rule within a conservative framework, just some pointers well….it would be much appreciated. Having said that he does have a handy guide put together by the Institute of public affairs of Australia, a prestigious group of Bankers, Miners, Captains of industry all thought to be under the guiding hand of our very own Rupert Murdoch.
http://ipa.org.au/publications/2080/be-like-gough-75-radical-ideas-to-transform-australia
Even though Rupe has gone on to bigger and better things ( now an American citizen by crickey ) I like to think he still reminisces of his early days at the Adelaide Advertiser. Just wondering if your fair country is lucky enough to have any News corp publications or is it just us with wall to wall Murdoch media. Anyhow I better get out of your way now. Oh! If you do run into Tonnes he’s the kind of laconic bloke who will feel right at home with a cheeky greeting of ‘ Cheers big ears ‘.

Replies

DaveJune 4, 2014 at 1:13 PM

Come back! This is way more entertaining than anything I’ve ever written…

I’ll have to check out those links. I may give you some time in next weeks post

paaptsef
Guest

Does Abbott’s PPL still officially outgreen the greens?

lefty e
Guest

Maybe Slimaj. But he’s right this time.

US is moving on climate change. China too.

Game over for Abbott.

lefty e
Guest

Couple of well-placed comments Shorto. Thats all it needs.

silmaj
Guest

1474
The author loves sinking the boot in in local environmental issues. His educated involvement in international issues will be noted as CRAP.

lefty e
Guest

I support the US-AUS alliance.

THerefore I oppose Abbott.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-ties-at-risk-over-climate-20140606-39omo.html

Death blow. Its all over for the PM.

lefty e
Guest

Just saying, dont miss this opportunity. Dont miss the significance of it.

This way lies victory.

lefty e
Guest

Seriosuly, FLOOR THE LIBS with this one.

Pick up the SWORD ALP.

lefty e
Guest

Abbott risks major rift in US-AUS relationship etc lol

COME ON STICK THE BOOT IN.

lefty e
Guest

Is Abbott the dumbest shitstain in Australian political history?

Serious question. The US-AUS relationship is supposed to be a no-brainer.

He’s creating a major rift in it.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-ties-at-risk-over-climate-20140606-39omo.html

silmaj
Guest

1472
How much has gillard commented. Not much. Windsors comments are designed to try and justify his view when he wouldn’t put it to the test. If abbot comes good I doubt Windsor will tweet much. The self serving process will no longer work.

teh_drewski
Guest

silmaj

Is Windsor no longer entitled to an opinion about politics because he no longer wished to engage in it? Seems an odd position for a commenter on a politics blog…

WarrenPeace
Guest

Look forward to waking up tothe next Lib stuff up night all you night owls.

Roger Miller
Guest

re Ireland
800 babies dying of starvation in the care of catholic nuns is just the start. This will not be an isolated case.

silmaj
Guest

Windsor
He never took his judgements to the next poll. Now he is continuing to promote them with no recompense. If abbot goes all the way to the next poll he is one up on Windsor.

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