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BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor's post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there's no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

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A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

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1488 comments

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ShowsOn
Guest

[Again
Does anybody know why Hawke said this?]
Because it is TRUE!

What the polls say this far out from an election are a terrible guide to what the election outcome will be like.

People who want Abbott to lose the next election need to remind themselves of this fact constantly.

Boerwar
Guest

Four Corners is distressing. Topic is rape, etc, in ADFA.

Paul
Guest

QUESTION

Does anybody know why Hawke said

while the Abbott government was ”not travelling well” and could be beaten if an election were held now, he did not think this would last and predicted the ”the polls will change somewhat”.

I know Hawke is aging and he has been writing for the Australian.
Whether either of these facts are relevant I don’t know.

Again
Does anybody know why Hawke said this?

Fran Barlow
Guest
TaxiLurker
Guest
I think the Canooks are in as bad political doo doo as we find ourselves so I sent this blog to the 24 Percent Majority website:TaxiLurkerJune 4, 2014 at 11:13 AM Dave, Orstralia calling here. Just wanted to give you the hands up that our recently elected PM is winging his way towards your bonza country on what can only be fact finding mission on the wonders of conservative government in Canada. Now Tony Abbott is the leader of the Liberal party of Australia but don’t be confused because that’s our version of the conservative party in Oz ( might… Read more »
paaptsef
Guest

Does Abbott’s PPL still officially outgreen the greens?

lefty e
Guest

Maybe Slimaj. But he’s right this time.

US is moving on climate change. China too.

Game over for Abbott.

lefty e
Guest

Couple of well-placed comments Shorto. Thats all it needs.

silmaj
Guest

1474
The author loves sinking the boot in in local environmental issues. His educated involvement in international issues will be noted as CRAP.

lefty e
Guest

I support the US-AUS alliance.

THerefore I oppose Abbott.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-ties-at-risk-over-climate-20140606-39omo.html

Death blow. Its all over for the PM.

lefty e
Guest

Just saying, dont miss this opportunity. Dont miss the significance of it.

This way lies victory.

lefty e
Guest

Seriosuly, FLOOR THE LIBS with this one.

Pick up the SWORD ALP.

lefty e
Guest

Abbott risks major rift in US-AUS relationship etc lol

COME ON STICK THE BOOT IN.

lefty e
Guest

Is Abbott the dumbest shitstain in Australian political history?

Serious question. The US-AUS relationship is supposed to be a no-brainer.

He’s creating a major rift in it.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-ties-at-risk-over-climate-20140606-39omo.html

silmaj
Guest

1472
How much has gillard commented. Not much. Windsors comments are designed to try and justify his view when he wouldn’t put it to the test. If abbot comes good I doubt Windsor will tweet much. The self serving process will no longer work.

teh_drewski
Guest

silmaj

Is Windsor no longer entitled to an opinion about politics because he no longer wished to engage in it? Seems an odd position for a commenter on a politics blog…

WarrenPeace
Guest

Look forward to waking up tothe next Lib stuff up night all you night owls.

Roger Miller
Guest

re Ireland
800 babies dying of starvation in the care of catholic nuns is just the start. This will not be an isolated case.

silmaj
Guest

Windsor
He never took his judgements to the next poll. Now he is continuing to promote them with no recompense. If abbot goes all the way to the next poll he is one up on Windsor.

mimhoff
Guest

[I don’t think it helps for people who get out to then continuously carp from the outside. If you wish to get back in do it.]

Some people are entitled to an “I told you so.”. It’s not like he hid his views at the time.

Roger Miller
Guest

Anger over the budget will subside as soon as the debt and defecit go down.
What, they’re not going down? I thought this budget was to fix the debt and deficit crisis.
Why do we have this crap budget if it doesn’t fix the problem we need to have a tough budget for?

deblonay
Guest

Actually we should remember that The Soviet Union played the major role in terms of deaths and defeats inflicted on the Nazi armies in the East …years fore and after D=Day

So Putin is there to represent thast fact of histiory

There is a degree of historical revisionism going on here to
forget the Russians contribution

Gen Montgomery of the UK once said there were three rules of war that MUST always be remembered by everyone

I>>Never march on Moscow
2..Never get involved in a land war in Asia
3..Never March on Moscow

There is no doubt that Hitler’s great error was to”March on
Moscow”

silmaj
Guest

1463
I don’t think it helps for people who get out to then continuously carp from the outside. If you wish to get back in do it.

teh_drewski
Guest

I’ve got a lot of time for Windsor.

WarrenPeace
Guest

silmaj 1452
I would welcome Winsor and any quality independents to contest safe Lib or Nat seats.

silmaj
Guest

1457
I guess I shouldn’t believe what I read.

silmaj
Guest

Good to see the old veterans saying to the powers that be directly WTF re Putin.

WarrenPeace
Guest

When I was about six I was sitting in the back seat of the old bomb we called a family car, I was reading the headlines of the Sunday papers out load, my Mum turned around and said son don’t always believe what you read in the paper.
Perhaps the best advice I ever got.

Martin B
Guest

Surely interpretive dance about nazis has to be against some convention.

deblonay
Guest

Re Ireland
_______
I understand thatIreland ,unlike the UK had no worthwhile health scheme until a rather slight one started some years ago…a that has been swept away by the GFC which has hit Ireland very hard

In the inter-war years Ireland was a sad poor place…which somebody once called” A Christian Brothers Republic” …dominated by the narrow views of the Churc

North and South …religion has been a terrible blight to Ireland…though I understand that that is changing and the powers of the churches are on the decline…as many of the young are opting out

zoidlord
Guest

@silmaj/1455

Then you be making the same mistake as alot of others have done.

Plenty of other people on PB have made that claim before, and I will give the same answer over and over.

Truth is, Tony Winsor has wiser words than most on PB.

deblonay
Guest

from Confessions

You know exactly what I was referring to
————
No I don’t actually

\but I’ll take Bemused advice anyway see 1447

silmaj
Guest

1453
Zoid I could say you are die hard labor. Let’s examine our last hundred posts and see whose closer to the truth.

WarrenPeace
Guest
Sorry I I left out the point I was trying to Make will write it in capitals I don’t know what brought it to my mind but back in the 70′s when I was living in Pott’s Point, and working in the city, I was waiting for a bus there where about 20 people in front of me, not sure if the next bus went Watsons Bay or Rose Bay. A older woman covered in furs came up and went straight to the front of the queue, (born to rule I suppose.)EVERYONE IN THE QUEUE HOWLED HER DOWN AND she… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@silmaj/1452

Sounds like to me you are a liberal supporter.

silmaj
Guest

1448
Windsor is reducing his integrity continuously by tweeting these comments. Perhaps he should stand again. His continuos comments could be used as an election campaign.

zoidlord
Guest
imacca
Guest
[ Perhaps our American friends will….ahem…nudge things along a little.. ] We can live in hope. 🙁 Will be interesting to see the spin that gets put on the Obama / Abbott meeting. I suspect there will be a lot of compare and contrast done between Obama’s reaction to Abbott, and his reaction to Gillard which seemed to be genuinely warm and easy-going. And any of that is going to be in the context of Hilary Clinton being a likely candidate for being the next US President and Gillards ongoing good relation ship with her. I expect Abbott is going… Read more »
liyana
Guest

Laurie Oakes article linked on here re Abbott not meeting legarde and others, plus leaving climate change off g20 agenda suggests some disturbance in US circles…

zoidlord
Guest

Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 1m

Getting the picture as to why Mr Abbott was not up to the job in 2010 .Three years on and still unaware of what the job is-embarrassing

bemused
Guest

deblonay@1445

Bemused////I have been most pleased at the bizarre appearnaces on TV and Radio this week of Kennett in Abbot’s defence

My wife says she can’t even watch him…but he has a certainly manic quality these days which I find amusing ,and he seems rather desperate…. which I like to see

Yes, Kennett has a severe case of relevance deprivation. I think it is severe enough for him to be hospitalised in a secure ward.

Oh, another thing, don’t get bothered by confessions, she is not worth it and is almost invariably wRONg anyway.

Goodnight all!

silmaj
Guest

1444
So when will the anger peak?

deblonay
Guest

Bemused////I have been most pleased at the bizarre appearnaces on TV and Radio this week of Kennett in Abbot’s defence

My wife says she can’t even watch him…but he has a certainly manic quality these days which I find amusing ,and he seems rather desperate…. which I like to see

liyana
Guest

I don’t think budget anger has peaked…I think everybody is waiting to see what will happen….some have placed their faith in the senate..and I think many are in denial….anger may simmer for a while, but once these changes start hitting the hip pocket, the anger will boil over

WarrenPeace
Guest
I don’t know what brought it to my mind but back in the 70’s when I was living in Pott’s Point, and working in the city, I was waiting for a bus there where about 20 people in front of me, not sure if the next bus went Watsons Bay or Rose Bay. A older woman covered in furs came up and went straight to the front of the queue, (born to rule I suppose.) she walked off in a huff. Around the same time I saw Sonia McMahon shopping in Myers on the corner of George and Market Streets,… Read more »
deblonay
Guest
Re the Horror story from Ireland and the 800 dead babies _______________________ In a way it mirrors the recent Judy Dench film…”Philomena”…but this story is terrible…being a story of so many small kids and babies dying of hunger/neglect and disease…while in the “care ” of the Catholic Church On top of the terrible stories of sexual abuse of kids in Ireland,this story may help to finally break the power of the Church in that country where it has for so long ruled peoples lives,over and above Govts It seems to me that where religion occupies a dominant role in any… Read more »
Martin B
Guest

So is Abbott to the (stage) right of Putin?

cud chewer
Guest

Is Abbott offending the yanks now? I really can’t keep up!

cud chewer
Guest

I would loved to see some informed and insightful comment on whether or not the current polls actually mean anything. Whether enough minds have been changed, or whether the sheeple will simply forget.

wpDiscuz

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