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Federal Election 2016

Jun 7, 2014

Seat of the week: Maranoa

Covering Queensland's south-western interior, Maranoa has been in National/Country Party hands without interruption for over 70 years, current member Bruce Scott having assumed the seat in 1990.

Teal numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal National Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria.

Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.

Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.

The seat’s present long-serving incumbent is Bruce Scott, who served in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, losing the position when the Nationals’ weak electorate performance in 2001 reduced its share of the spoils. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.

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2772 comments

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Diogenes
Guest

34 Essendon players issued with infraction notices.

Ouch.

This is going to take years.

CTar1
Guest

Tikrit taken.

It’s all rosey after the democratic election in Iraq.

Boerwar
Guest

For the Wesst, the preferred solution to hold Iraq together is a dictator with a vicious nasty streak who hates islamists.

But they are a bit scarcer than they used to be.

Phil Vee
Guest

File under the heading of useless information;
When I was taught how to play golf in the early Seventies, my Scottish instructor gave me a club called a jigger. It was between a putter and a 1 iron to be used when your ball was on the edge of green. I remember using it a lot.

Thanks to briefly for his concise demolition of Hockey’s nonsense .

sprocket_
Guest

Murdoch organs have gone into peak Abbott government hagiography mode, following Rupert’s pleasure at 2.5 hr arse kissing by our supplicant PM in NY.

Abbott’s Uni pal and fellow Bob Santamaria disciple Greg Sheridan leads the way, able to merge the Abbott global triumph with a smack down of Fairfax and the ABC

http://t.co/mHjmUmDiJ4

absolutetwaddle
Guest
I don’t know what some of you people gain by going out of your way to watch pressers and doorstops by the likes of Joe Hockey. “Oh look, there’s Joe Hockey lecturing the poor on how entitled they are again. Oh boy, I do hope he starts talking about dole bludgers and the parasites on the DSP, that would cement even more cholesterol to my dangerously narrowed, stress-damaged arteries! What’s that? Cory Bernardi, Andrew Bolt, Sophie Mirabella, Francisco Franco and Sarah Palin are tonight’s guests on Q&A? SOMEONE PASS THE REMOTE!” You’ll be a happier person just reading the headline… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Boerwar,
I have never heard that word used for any sporting equipment in all of my life. In fact I have rarely heard it used at all for anything. I think we had our own homegrown racist terms without need for USA ones, to be honest about it. I vaguely recall some old product labels and of course those rag dolls called gollywogs. I think the lolly cigerettes we bought as kids, the licorice ones, not the sugar ones, had a gollywog on the label. Other than that the only time i heard it was on tv in American movies.

B.C.
Guest

The other name for the Jack is Kitty. Hence the lawn bowl joke about Kitty and Jack

Otiose
Guest

Nett_News++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 @rupertmurdoch tells #abbott “Just Do it”, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1jkvzM2

leon
Guest

A jigger is a cue rest used in billiards and snooker. It should not be confused with a thingomajigger which is not used in billiards or snooker.

imacca
Guest
[ Gawd just seen Hockey at the Sydney Institute on Lateline. ] You wont do that again in a hurry will you?? 🙂 [ Lecturing the poor and middle income people on their obligation to help balance the budget. Sheer. Bloody. Hypocrisy. ] I think he is following on from his leaders theme on selling the budget. You know the one where Tony told us if we were not so fwarking stupid we would have known that they were going to screw over every body except the rich?? I can see that working for them really well in the polling… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Gov going wrong way on Piracy: iiNet

http://delimiter.com.au/2014/06/11/govt-going-wrong-piracy-path-says-iinet/

” suspect most Australians will find it hard to disagree with Dalby that the solution to the Internet piracy issue needs to be a commercial one — not a regulatory one. Pretty much all attempts to regulate the Internet have failed over the past there decades. I am amused and saddened that the attempts keep coming. Many people, it seems, still don’t understand the depth and importance of the technological revolution which Earth is permanently engaged in now.”

Which is part of the Anti-Technology, Anti-Science, Anti-Socialism, Anti-welfare.

It’s all about Profitism for this Government.

imacca
Guest

[ Sorry bout that. I sorta went all Showsy. ]

Don’t think you have anything to apologize for. Trying to get your head around some of the lies and spin JoHo tires to peddle will do that to people.

Probably better to just assume that if his mouth is moving he’s talking crap that only the blue kool aid addicts will swallow. On his current form you stand a remarkably good chance of being correct.

kezza2
Guest

Sorry bout that. I sorta went all Showsy.

Then again that could just be a champagne argument.

kezza2
Guest

Hey, Joe Hockey
[The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]

Heard of holiday pay, douchebag?

The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working one month full time each year just to pay for “their own fucking break”

GIVE US A BREAK

FROM YOUR LIES

briefly
Guest

grrr..one-twelfth of the economy was distributed as welfare…

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

Joe wants to see tent cities surrounding suburbs..which he will get once the new recession gets under way.

Dingbat The First
Guest

So half of it is bullshit from the beginning.

And if you take away the portion that the average income earner gets back in welfare, we’d be down to something less than a fortnight. 10 or 12 days so that most of us can live in something reasonable. Joe Hockey would destroy that so a few people can get even richer.

Dingbat The First
Guest

Income tax

Just Me
Guest

[2744
zoidlord

sortius ‏@sortius 11m

.@littlesteve @mansillo it’s becoming clear this budget is designed to essentially kill off low income earners/unemployed]

It’s a cull.

briefly
Guest
Hockey claims… [The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian.] In 2012/13, according to the Treasury budget papers and the ABS, the combined social security and welfare provision was $131.9 billion, including Family Tax Benefits. This was 8.6% of GDP, which totaled $1,525 billion. The wages share of the economy was estimated by the ABS at 53%. So while one-eighth of the economy was distributed to welfare of all kinds, just over half of this can be… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@FarQU/2748

IS that including GST in goods? or excluding GST goods?

deblonay
Guest
For those interested in Cantor defeat in Primary ballot He rode the Tiger…and was devouried +++++++++++ Cantor is/was no favourite of the US Conservative Mag/site His defeat brings a warning for Repubs who flirt with the Tea Party as he seems to have done.earlier…only to be defeated by an even more extreme right-winger in the primary They say he “rode the Tea Party Tiger…which devoured him in the end ” Far from being a “moderate”: Repub(whatever that may look like,he was linked to peoploe like Sheldon Adelson who runs the Repub Jewish Coalition(“The richest jew in the US”as he boasts,and… Read more »
Dingbat The First
Guest

[“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]

The average cleaner earns about $36,000 pa, $3,000 per month and pays about $300 per month tax.

The one at my work earns less than that. I’m not sure whether Jo thinks these people earn too much and need to have their incomes cut.

liyana
Guest
I have been trying to get my head around the Abbott- climate change bloc speech in Canad-ia, all day.. But I can’t see any sense in it at all. If China and the US sign up for Carbon pricing, then surely an anti carbon pricing stance will risk Australia becoming a pariah, and then inevitably there will be penalties and perhaps boycotts on our products? How on earth can Abbott be so reckless? Hasn’t he considered these points? Is he really so beholden to big coal? There is no need to espouse a belief in climate change to recognise the… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Video of Harry Waxman congressman interviewed by SFerguson on 7.30 re climafe change policy

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/waxman-on-abbotts-climate-stance-ahead-of-obama-meeting/5515702

Night all

Thomas. Paine.
Guest
Hokey is an interesting case study of somebody growing into a deluded world of self-importance. You can see the transformation…manicured hair for image, pin stripe suits, cigars, pompous, bombastic, arrogant and thoroughly out of touch with reality. He really is like one of those banksters depicted in Yes Minister. I can imagine he is conned along by his corporate mates who must meet and ring him all the time to pat him on the back, and play to his self importance, make him feel ‘one of them’, all the while laughing at the ease in which he is made a… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

sortius ‏@sortius 11m

.@littlesteve @mansillo it’s becoming clear this budget is designed to essentially kill off low income earners/unemployed

Dingbat The First
Guest

[“The publicly funded health system must be sustainable.

“By introducing a co-payment for Medicare we are able to build a $20 billion Medical Research Future Fund that in the next decade will double medical research funding in Australia.

“This is fair.”]

A 20 Billion dollar research fund is going to make medicare sustainable?

It’s not a question of fair or unfair, Joe, it’s a question of stupidity.

Laocoon
Guest

mikehilliard @ 2665

[“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”

Really, is there some trickery in Hockey’s statement here?]

So “over” 8.3% of full time work

So 35(+) minutes per day for a 35 hour week?

And more efficient than the 10% Church tithe…

lefty e
Guest

One of the better articlesIve read in months: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/09/french-public-debt-audit-illegitimate-working-class-internationalim

Basically argues that debt has been growing without state expenditure rising:itsall about tax cuts, the state paying higher interest to (increasongly unknown) external creditors: both of which were simply political choices.

Debt that “grew in the service of private interests, and not the wellbeing of the people” is illegitmate, and should be treated as such (indeed,is,by small number of states). Austerity is its intended product – and its been deliberately inflated.

Calls for debt audits, and disclosure of creditors.

Bring it on.

zoidlord
Guest

On same night Hockey dumps on equity & equality, US Tsy Sec Lew says income inequality in US is “ultimate test” http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-usa-economy-jacklew-idUSKBN0EM17X20140611?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 5m

Imagine Hockey saying: The ultimate test for all of us will be how inclusive tomorrow’s economy becomes & how widely our economic gains flow

Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m

Imagine Hockey saying: “The crisis we face today is need to make sure the economy is expanding fast enough to support a growing middle class

Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m

The US Treasury Lew was responsible for those last two quotes.

deblonay
Guest
Iraq on the boil___ ____________ A former Iraqi PM said from Singapore tonight that the only way of defeating the El-Queida like ISIS movenment now,after the capture of most of the niokrth,including Mosul, is by outside intervention …possibly from the US or Turkey….well that seems unlikely given Obama position on such troop[ moves…so what has all the intervention achieved Will the Iraqis have the gall to ask Abbott for help…after all Howard did send troops…..but I guess that that would arouse enormous oppossition here now…despite the real threat to the Iraqi regime The war was unpopular when Howard sent troops…now… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

Gawd just seen Hockey at the Sydney Institute on Lateline.

Lecturing the poor and middle income people on their obligation to help balance the budget. Sheer. Bloody. Hypocrisy.

victoria
Guest

Night boerwar

Boerwar
Guest

Time for bed. Good night all.

Boerwar
Guest

[victoria
Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

Boerwar

How much of other people’s money is paying for Hockey and his cronies to stuff up fhe country?
And how much of other people’s money is going to pay for his generous pension and superannuation entitlements when he is finished stuffing up the country]

That is different.

Boerwar
Guest

b @ 2732
Yep.

Boerwar
Guest
[Fulvio Sammut Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink Well, I’m 64, and I’ve been up against it since I arrive in this country at the age of three and a bit, and most viciously from sadistic bitches in nuns’ uniforms at the age of four and five. But there are enough real battles out there to be fought against bigots and racists without taking up arms against thoughtless geriatrics over what they call a small white ball. I don’t doubt your sincerity and I admire your consistency and courage, but sometimes I think we need to… Read more »
bemused
Guest
zoomster@2727 “He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement. Ah, that would be the safe Labor seat of Melton that Bill Shorten gained preselection for — right about this time. I think the seeds of Mr Kernohan’s grudge against Shorten might lie there… Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KZF5yzl I am rather disconcerted that people can be ‘lined up’ for safe Labor seats without a pre-selection… Read more »
Fulvio Sammut
Guest

Well, I’m 64, and I’ve been up against it since I arrive in this country at the age of three and a bit, and most viciously from sadistic bitches in nuns’ uniforms at the age of four and five.

But there are enough real battles out there to be fought against bigots and racists without taking up arms against thoughtless geriatrics over what they call a small white ball.

I don’t doubt your sincerity and I admire your consistency and courage, but sometimes I think we need to more carefully chose our battlelines.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

matt31@2722

It’s certainly been a quiet week on the poll front! Next week should bring Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, and surely we must nearly be due a Reachtel?

Last ReachTEL was conducted on Thursday 8 May and released the day after so if the monthly schedule is being adhered to I’d expect another within days.

The second-last ever Nielsen shouldn’t be far away either.

victoria
Guest

Boerwar

How much of other people’s money is paying for Hockey and his cronies to stuff up fhe country?
And how much of other people’s money is going to pay for his generous pension and superannuation entitlements when he is finished stuffing up the country

Boerwar
Guest

FS

I have been fighting against racism for forty-five years.

We (as in Australians) have made some excellent progress in that time – progress we can all be proud of – but there is a bit to go.

Naturally there is discomfort, hostility and outright aggresion in response from time-to-time, but if we all work together on it we will get there in the end.

zoomster
Guest

[“He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement.]

Ah, that would be the safe Labor seat of Melton that Bill Shorten gained preselection for — right about this time.

I think the seeds of Mr Kernohan’s grudge against Shorten might lie there…

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KZF5yzl

Atticus
Guest

Adding to BK’s comment,
One assumes that a great majority of folks receiving “welfare” either have spent decades paying taxes for others previously or will be paying income taxes for decades in future employment.

Henry
Guest

That was only at happy hour on a tuesday i might add.

Henry
Guest

Used to enjoy the occasional bevvie at Greenlees Mad Dog.
$2 schooners back in the day.
You could get pissed for $10.

Boerwar
Guest

Hockey is pursuing the meme of all government expenditure representing ‘other people’s money’.

He might have considered the following:

How many days a year do people work in order to pay for the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and for purchase of klutzfighters.

(The war in Vietnam is costing us, at a minimun, 32,000 times a disability pension per year, for example.)

Hockey is basically saying there is no virtue in supporting a society.

There is only virtue in getting out of the way of greed-is-good spivs.

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