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Queensland Politics

Jun 8, 2014

ReachTEL: LNP 41, Labor 34, PUP 14 in Queensland

A post-budget poll of voting state voting intention in Queensland is in line with other results of the last six months in finding the government on track to be returned with a comfortable but substantially reduced majority.

The Sunday Mail carries a ReachTEL automated phone poll of state voting intention, conducted two days after Tuesday’s budget from a sample of 1800, which finds primary vote support for Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government at 40.9%, with Labor on 34.0%, the Palmer United Party on 13.6% and the Greens on 5.2%. No two-party preferred result is provided, and the emergence of Palmer United has made determining one rather tricky, but it comes out as 53.6-46.4 on a formula that has half the minor party vote exhausting and the rest allocated as per preferences at last year’s federal election. The poll also finds strong opposition to proposed asset sales, with 24% rating the budget as good or very good and “about the same number” rating it average, while “more than 46%” thought the budget poor or very poor.

UPDATE: Docantk relates in comments: “Channel Seven news has ReachTEL Newman performance ratings: Very poor 30%, poor 19%, satisfactory 20%, good 15% and very good 15%. Palaszczuk performance: Very poor 18%, poor 20%, satisfactory 30%, good 15%, very good 11%, don’t know 6%.”

UPDATE 2: Full results from ReachTEL.

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25 comments

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Socrates
Guest

Campbell Newman seems determined to overtake NSW Labor as Australia’s most corrupt government. This story adds to his already impressive CV.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-23/karreman-quarries-escapes-prosecution-for-illegal-quarrying/5543896

The illegally extracted gravel would be worth at least $5 million per year. That does not count the additional costs to the state of the downstream sedimentation. Newman has the cheek to complain about a budget problem.

roger bottomley
Guest

William,or anyone. Has Newman formally set the date for the Stafford by election yet?

caf
Guest

If, as these polls are indicating, Newman’s Government does lose a swag of city and coastal seats at the next election, will that destabilise the Government as the losses fall disproportionately on the “Liberal” members, leaving the ex-Nationals in a much stronger position in the party room?

WeWantPaul
Guest

So 30% of Queenslanders think Newman is good or very good. Wow that is a lot of people with sunstroke or really really low standards & iq

teh_drewski
Guest

Seems a little odd to have more respondents against the budget than in favour of it, and more respondents against assets sales than in favour of them, yet the Libs still relatively comfortably in front on TPP.

ruawake
Guest

The next Qld election will be fought on the need to sell off assets, if you look at the ReachTel results for support of asset sales, the ALP, PUP, Greens and others all overwhelmingly oppose the measures.

This may give an insight into preference flows. ~75% against the LNP.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Full ReachTEL results

https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7news-sunday-mail-queensland-the-state-were-in-2014-costofliving
[8 June 2014
7 News / Sunday Mail Queensland – The state we’re in – Cost of Living

ReachTEL conducted a survey of 1,820 Queensland residents on the night of 5th June 2013.]

Note, for a baseline comparison, there are no official 2012 election TPP results, but see these estimates.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/05/post-election-pendulum-for-2012-queensland-election.html
[May 18, 2012
Post-election Pendulum for 2012 Queensland Election.

The results of the 2012 Queensland Election held on 24 March are now final and it is time to summarise the overall result and provide the new and rather lop-sided electoral pendulum.

…………..

In 2009 Malcolm Mackerras produced an estimated statewide Labor 2PP of 50.9% using the approach of distributing Cunningham’s preferences and viewing Gladstone as a Labor seat. I adopted the approach of another Queensland political observer, David Fraser, in treating Cunningham’s two-candidate vote as the non-Labor two-party vote, which gave a Labor state-wide vote of 50.6%.

On the 2012 results, using the Mackerras method and distributing Cunningham’s votes as preferences, the state-wide LNP two-party preferred is 62.8%. If you use the approach of treating Cunningham as the non-Labor total, the state-wide LNP two-party preferred is 63.1%. Either way, both methods produce a state-wide two-party preferred swing of 13.7%, with the 0.3% difference between the two state-wide vote estimates created entirely by which method you prefer in dealing with Gladstone.]

Note Galaxy use the first Mackerras method on 2012 as a baseline.

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/21-22-2014/

Graeme
Guest

“Since NSW and Qld have in effect reverted (or regressed) to first-past-the-post voting, the whole concept of the two-party vote becomes rather meaningless.”

Somewhat true on a statewide extrapolation. But that’s also a factor of Qld having 3+ party politics at regional level. OPV will be anything but FPP in those seats where Palmer, Katter or Independents run second but are elected on staunch Laborites dutifully following their how to vote card. The consideration, more than the argy bargy at the last by-election, is exercising Bleijie as he considers banning canvassing around polling booths…

docantk
Guest

Palaszczuk performance: Very poor 18%, poor 20%, satisfactory 30%, good 15%, very good 11%, don’t know 6%

docantk
Guest

Channel 7 news has reachtel Newman performance ratings: Very poor 30%, poor 19%, satisfactory 20%, good 15% and very good 15%

teh_drewski
Guest

graham

In Queensland state elections, you do not have to complete your ballot for it to be formal. So if all of the candidates you have numbered are excluded in the count, your vote “exhausts” and has no further effect on who wins.

For example, if there are 4 candidates (LNP, Lab, PUP and GRN) and you vote 1 PUP, 2 GRN, and do not number any further candidates, if both PUP and GRN candidates are excluded, your vote cannot be used to determine who wins out of the remaining candidates.

Rational Leftist
Guest

bug1, this is a QLD political thread. William usually has state politics or issue-specific threads stay on those topics, whereas the current political thread, usually a recent poll or a “seat of the week”, is for more general political discussion and certainly for the breakdown of bludgertrack. I believe “Seat of the Week: Maranoa” is the current thread for federal and general discussions.

As for this topic, I can see a decent campaign putting Labor in a good position for the following election. While I know oppositions should always aim for the win, but it’s a bit unfeasible when you’ve only got 8/89 seats in parliament (9, if Stafford goes Labor.)

I do think Ashgrove will be an interesting battleground though and I wouldn’t be surprised if Newman relocates to a safe seat for the next election.

spur212
Guest

Possum apparently will be posting something on Queensland very soon. Stay tuned

graham white
Guest

what does it mean for a vote to “exhaust”?

feeney
Guest

My State Labor MP lost his seat in 2012 due to OPV.

The Greens vote exhausted and defeated Labor.

There are too many variables to accurately predict the outcome of the next election.

Work To Rule
Guest

Not sure if a 2pp in entirely meaningless under optional preferential voting (OPV).

I would have guessed, in this case OPV and the significant rise in PUP is likely to hurt the LNP.

Assuming the majority of PUP voters would be leaking from the LNP – then OPV would prevent some of them finding there way back via preferences.

bug1
Guest

Toorak Toff, i was referring to the state breakdown of the federal poll aggregate on the right column, it has SA at 58.9% to ALP.
(apologies for getting off topic so fast)

Toorak Toff
Guest

Oh, and third, Isobel Redmond has just had to apologise to parliament for saying the state electoral commissioner, Kay Mousley, “is utterly corrupt”.

Toorak Toff
Guest

bug1, what South Australian 2PP do you refer to?

If the Lib vote is collapsing, it’s because one former Lib leader, Martin Hamilton-Smith, has joined the Labor Cabinet, and another, Iain Evans, has announced he’ll be quitting parliament within the year.

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