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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 16, 2014

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll shows Labor down a point on two-party preferred for the second poll in a row, and a narrowing of Bill Shorten's lead as preferred prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

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1250 comments

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BlindFreddy
Guest

Rua n Nappin

Any of the Common Law (eg negligence, from which duty of care derives) can be legislated away, in part or full as the parliament sees fit.

Statute Law (by Parl) trumps Common Law (“judge made” or “case law”)

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

The LNP is saying the Commonwealth will NOT invest in even the most important works for the nation, if the State does not privatise something!!!!

Its Abbott saying to the Sates “Sell your siht to my corporate mates and sponsors or else I’ll not give you any Fedeal money!!”

It’s blackmail

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Letter from Abbott

comment image

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Really, the average NRL game is watched by far fewer than the average AFL game, just how often is an NRL game played in front of 40 or 60k

Not often.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

So far this year:
Total RL T V (FTA & Cable) viewers 52,031,000 Average 477,000
AFL total 50,714,000 Average 437,000

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

In honour of the Socceroos courageous performance against The Netherlands, I am going to stop roughing up our Aussie Rules fans. 🙂

At least for a while. :devil:

Dan Gulberry
Guest

[Rugby League easily defeats the AFL on all TV ratings.]

wRONg.

briefly
Guest
zoomster
Guest

Brilliant game so far….

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Zoidy Of course the Saudis would but the irony of it as they are financial backers of groups like ISIL and Al Queda

mexicanbeemer
Guest

The MCG is the best place for the ALP grand final with all its history, it adds to the significances of winning the premiership.

Interstates are able to win the right to a home final and due to the regular traveling, the interstate sides are more than able to adjust to playing on the G in the granny.

stevieboy
Guest

Puff, the A-League Champions earn a spot in the Asian Champions League (as does the Premiers if they’re not the same team) and the numbers show the finals system is popular. The fear is as Australians won’t accept a league without finals and that interest would wane towards the end of the season when the title face comes down to one or two teams. The numbers show the finals are popular with the decider doing the biggest number of any game on FTA and pay and 50k attending the big game. Might not be traditional but it is helping to sell the game in this country and it’s working.

zoidlord
Guest

Google, Facebook legal to be intercepted:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-27887639

Reuters Iran ‏@ReutersIran 2h

Saudis give apparent warning to Iran: don’t meddle in Iraq http://reut.rs/1lU6tIy

fukumimi之助 ‏@fukumimi 5h

Korean owned LINE comms being intercepted by Korean intelligence? No surprises there. One reason I don’t use it.

Otiose
Guest

Nett_News++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #abbott, Goes All in w’ the #Senate, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1jyN0su

deblonay
Guest

Why would anyone want to hold the Grand final in Canberra…an over large(nice) country town?
Might as well hold the grand final in Townsville or Towoomba
or Ballarat

The MCG is after all the one great stadium in the nation of world standard….only in Marvellous Melbourne…the national sport capital btw

zoidlord
Guest

Oil prices would be a concern for the Coalition Party goverment.

Yale University ‏@Yale 42s

RT @YaleGlobal: Iraq in meltdown, #oilprices rise, China is largest foreign investor while the US sends troops: http://tinyurl.com/mp27wvr

swamprat
Guest

lefty

[First double dissolution trigger.

Come on Tony – spend your poltical capital.]

haha. I don’t think Abbot has any real interest in BEING a PM. It was just the aim to get there.

I think if he “got” a knighthood (and enough money to be a rich north shore Sydney bludger) he would be happy to leave.

The damage to the original, and fast fading, ideal of a Fair country, is not done by Abbot, he is just a silly puppet.

The corporate elite that have bought the LNP (and some members of the ALP) are the real powers in Australia now.

Our country desperately needs an electoral system that allows REAL alternatives to the corrupt corporately owned LNP and the sheltered workshop which is the ALP.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I vote for Everyone Else of all codes v Collingwood. 🙂

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Things may have changed with us joining Asia, but I assume our Champion still goes off to play the Asian clubs to try to qualify.

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