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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 19, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United's recent dip in the polls.

The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

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1296 comments

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jules
Guest
[…even a very superficial look at the article shows it to be absolute tripe. Unfortunately some people without a scientific background will believe it and the debate on nuclear energy will be prevented by someone willing to deliberately deceive to push their agenda.] O C – Can you please explain why this statement is valid? Less than 2% of kids are usually found to have thyroid nodules yet in this study nearly 50% had them. Ok so allowing for the increase in kids tested and the more sensitive testing methods … are you suggesting its normal for nearly half of… Read more »
Fran Barlow
Guest
Psephos [Even if Fukushima in the long run does kill 2,000 or 20,000 or 200,000 Japanese, that is still less than the number who will die if we don’t stop burning carbon. ] True, and one might add that if Fukushima had not opened in 1964 then Japan would absolutely have emitted somewhere between 30 and 50 times the CO2 it emitted from the Fukushima complex operation during those years. Fortunately, it’s most unlikely that as many as 200 people will die prematurely in the long run as a result of the disruption to the plant complex. The problem with… Read more »
mari
Guest
Briefly The Greek islands are wonderful (this time of year especially or in September) before and after the heat and crazy tourists. Unfortunately nor enjoying as much as I usually do with my pulled back muscle, the families I stay with are wonderful, organising to take the suitcase on and off the ferry,here in Milos he has a taxidriver mate in Athns who will come up to the ferry and take me to the Hilton then 2 days later will take me out to the airport. Even more important I won’t be ripped off. BTW not bad 2 bedroom unit… Read more »
swamprat
Guest

night all may you rest peacefully in Murdohcia

swamprat
Guest

briefly

The ALP is not accountable to me at all.

I have yet to meet a human that was.

But in a duo ploy where the electoral system is so unequal, who can we complain about?

Its either the increasibly right wing LNP or the increasingly right wing ALP

swamprat
Guest

Although, sadly the ALP is a shadow of its former self.

Maybe Mar’in Ferguson should have been the ALP Leader

briefly
Guest

Hi Mari….Greece sounds idyllic… 🙂

swamprat
Guest
Everything Right Wing [This delusion you have the the Liberal party is out there to hurt as many Australians as it can is quite strong.] Haha what a joke. In my 60+ years of life my experience of the Liberal Party is began with the Vietnam war where it was compulsory to go and die for the Liberal Party whether you wanted to of not. I knew young men of 18 who were forced to go and kill in your Liberal War ands they were in fact killed though they were desperate no to go bt they had no choice.… Read more »
briefly
Guest

1284
swamprat

I think Labor should take real measures to further democratise itself, and this means unions will have to relinquish some of their power. Your language simply makes you appear hostile to Labor and unions…which rather begs the question why you might think they should be accountable to you or those who hold similar views?

zoidlord
Guest
briefly
Guest

1280
Everything

The data is quite the contrary from that which you assert…Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal Government….the proof is there if anyone cares to look.

Fraser…terrible recession, mismanaged the budget…Hawke/Keating rebuilt the economy, expanded the social wage, cut taxes….Howard cut social incomes and policies, implemented tax policies that worsened inequality, buggered up public finances and attempted to impose Wrok Choices…all aimed at harming the incomes of average households…

Abbott….intent on wrecking the post-war social compact, destroying meaningful energy and environmental policies, stuffing up education, welfare, retirement incomes, minimum wages…on and on and on…

What’s not to object to…!!

swamprat
Guest

briefly

I am very pro unions.

I am very anti ALP MPs being chosen because of stitch-ups.

The fact that two people in WA can agree to appoint a person to winnable sense position regardless of his Liberal loyalties is to me illustrative of the meaningless and valueless of the ALP.

The fact that intellectuals like you consider that this is normal is very sad to me.

briefly
Guest

swamprat…

Anti-labor bigotry is usually a Liberal character fault. What did unions ever do to you that make you want to climb on the same platform as Hockey, Andrews, Robb, Abbott, Joyce…et al?

swamprat
Guest

The LNP is essentially a Mafia… any corporatist interest can buy and own them;

The coal industry
international mining
international finance and banking
USA Christian fundamentalists

The only group that does not own ten are ordinary Australians

The only defence ordinary Australians have is the ALP

poor fellow my country………

Utopia
Guest

Yes, I scroll past them too….

Utopia
Guest

Not a silly question at all.

You seem to feel better when you are able to vent your hatred of the Liberal party.

This delusion you have the the Liberal party is out there to hurt as many Australians as it can is quite strong.

The data that Australians have done quite well under Liberal governments, doesn’t sit well with you apparently.

mari
Guest

Today for the first time for agesI read some of Mod Lib comments, why does anyone answer them? he(after reading some comments today has to be a he) is just hoping for attention?

Anyway will go back to the usual scrolling past

Lovely evening here on Milos for my last evening, not a cloud in the sky and 28 celsius at coming up to 6pm

briefly
Guest

[1275
Everything

Is this reassuring for you?]

Is that a silly question? The LNP are involved in the daily betrayal of the country’s best interests. They are a disgrace. They should be thrown from office for deception, treachery and contempt.

swamprat
Guest

Briefly: 1271

[John Curtin?
Ben Chifley?
Bob Hawke?

Great unionists and great leaders.]

Bullock
Thomson
Ferguson
et al.

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