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Federal Election 2016

Jun 28, 2014

Seat of the week: Maribyrnong

Bill Shorten's electoral home in Melbourne's inner north-west extends from marginal Essendon and Moonee Ponds in the east to rock-solid Labor St Albans in the west.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bill Shorten’s electorate of Maribyrnong has covered a shifting area around Essendon in Melbourne’s inner north-west since its creation in 1906. It presently extends westwards from Essendon through Niddrie and Avondale Heights to St Albans. Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1969, prior to which it was held for the Liberals for 14 years by Philip Stokes. Stokes had emerged a beneficiary of the Labor split ahead of the 1955 election, at which preferences from the ALP (Anti-Communist) candidate enabled him to unseat Labor’s Arthur Drakeford by 114 votes, in what was only Labor’s second defeat since 1910. The seat finally returned to the Labor fold at the 1969 election when it was won by Moss Cass, who secured enough of a buffer through successive swings in 1972 and 1974 to survive Labor’s electoral winter of 1975 and 1977. In 1983 he bequeathed a double-digit margin to his successor Alan Griffiths, who enjoyed a 7.4% boost when the 1990 redistribution added St Albans, which remains a particularly strong area for Labor. Griffiths was succeeded in 1996 by Bob Sercombe, who chose to bow out at the 2007 election rather than face preselection defeat at the hands of Australian Workers Union national secretary Bill Shorten.

Shorten came to parliament with a national reputation after positioning himself as the public face of the Beaconsfield mine disaster rescue effort in April-May 2006, and wielded great influence in the Victorian party factional system as a chieftain of the Right. However, Shorten was known to be hostile to Kevin Rudd, and rose no higher than parliamentary secretary for disabilities and children’s services during Rudd’s first term as Prime Minister. Shorten then emerged as one of the initiators of the June 2010 leadership coup, together with Victorian Right colleague David Feeney, and interstate factional allies Mark Arbib in New South Wales and Don Farrell in South Australia. After the 2010 election he was promoted to the outer ministry as Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation, and he then won promotion to an expanded cabinet by further taking on the employment and workplace relations portfolio in December 2011. Nonetheless, Shorten’s political stocks were generally thought to have been depleted by the political travails of Julia Gillard, whom he crucially abandoned in June 2013 to facilitate Kevin Rudd’s return. For this he was rewarded with a portfolio swap of financial services and superannuation for education.

After the 2013 election defeat, Shorten and Anthony Albanese of the Left emerged as the two candidates for the first leadership ballot held under the party’s new rules, in which the vote was divided evenly between the party membership and caucus. Albanese proved the clear favourite of the membership, in part reflecting the taint Shorten was perceived as carrying from his involvement in successive leadership coups against sitting prime ministers. However, Shorten’s 55-31 victory in the caucus vote was just sufficient to outweigh his 59.92%-40.08% deficit in the ballot of approximately 30,000 party members, the combined result being 52.02% for Shorten and 47.98% for Albanese.

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1141 comments

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Fran Barlow
Guest
Bemused defined ‘effective opposition’ as follows [One capable of forming a government and actually doing stuff. N.B. Not the Greens.] I’d say that an effective opposition was one that could manage to prevent things getting done. The opposition to the 43rd parliament met your test, but failed mine. We Greens are obviously not yet an effective opposition but that’s not to say we won’t be one day. Sometime after that, we may even get to lead a government. Whatever we do though, we will do the most important thing — stand four-square alongside those fighting for social justice and fair… Read more »
bemused
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1099 It is not misandry to point out that wars are and always have been instigated, carried out and financed by men. Men plan the wars, make the armies, take the resources to fund armaments, and destroy people, animals, habitats and thousands of years of infrustructure in their wars. Women and kids are involved but that is all. In addition men use wars to steal goods, rape women and kids and torture non-combatants. Additionally or maybe purposely wars allow men to relate to each other in ways considered as a sign of homosexuality in civil life. Now… Read more »
bemused
Guest

zoidlord@1093

@bemused/1090

Define effective opposition?

One capable of forming a government and actually doing stuff. N.B. Not the Greens.

Darn
Guest
[Puff, the Magic Dragon. Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK Centre You sound like those people who say all politicians are as bad as each other. You did not address my claim that women are responsible for the wars that have plagued this planet since groups of humans met each other around a waterhole. In this modern times they are not responsible for the way the world’s resources are used because they don’t bloody well control them. Nor do we control the decisions men make have wars. Refute it if you can. And stop hiding behind… Read more »
Sustainable future
Guest
45:55 trending away from abbott – a beautiful set of numbers. I wonder how long he’ll be able to convince the party room than switching the elected leader is electoral suicide. my guess is the powers in charge of him will use his unpopularity to ram through a hard right agenda and booby-trap the budget for the returning labor government in 2016, or ditch abbott six months out from the election know that anybody will be more popular. the neutered and spineless turnbull might even be given the job just so he can get the ‘PM’ title in history books… Read more »
Norwester
Guest

So Abbott net approval -31.

Perhaps the 7 percent undecided are not as we might suspect all fluffyheads, but could plausibly include some respondents who were so speechless with rage at the interviewers question that they became catatonic.

guytaur
Guest

confessions

I am not claiming that. The whole post makes it plain I see it as equal opportunity.

Its just males have more opportunity to be in power.

Moving on to next thread.

Dingbat The First
Guest

You might be onto something Guytaur. It would certainly explain a lot, behaving like children, incapable of control, self-centred. Good reason to keep them away from pointy things and things that go bang.

confessions
Guest

guytaur:

Yeah, but not on a scale that says men who fuck up can lay blame with their mothers.

pedant
Guest

FarQU @ 1123: As it happens, I agree with your statement, which is slightly more measured than PTMD’s. I simply make the point that Mrs Thatcher led the UK during the Falklands War. (And of course Golda Meir led Israel during the Yom Kippur war.)

Centre
Guest

Why is it necessary to categorise between men and women?

Sheesh, if Gillard was a Liberal PM she would have been crowned Saint Mother Thatcher The 2nd by Rupe and his butt cleansers.

I’m moving on!

guytaur
Guest

confessions

You think mothers do not give ethics and values to their children?

confessions
Guest

[If nothing else woman are responsible for raising the men and giving them values that means they go and start wars.]

Jesus guytaur, whose arse did you pluck that shit from?

Rossmore
Guest

55:45 I’ll take that at this stage of the electoral cycle.

Ratchets up the pressure on the LNP nicely … Its plea for fiscal austerity is clearly falling on deaf ears …

zoidlord
Guest

Oh and ABC finally reports polling too btw, but only on QLD:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-30/qld-government-trails-labor-in-newspoll/5558682

guytaur
Guest

pedant

I would not be surprised if Palmer was on the phone to him as we speak

pedant
Guest

guytaur @ 1112: Mr Palmer should be on the phone to him straight away to get him as a PUP candidate for the Victorian election.

Dingbat The First
Guest

Pedant and Centre,

When the overwhelming majority of the world’s violent crimes are no longer committed by men, you will have a point. Women are not as bad as men. They are not even close.

As for 1118 – FMD.

Centre
Guest

Puffy

Oh don’t worry, if they had equal power in the past they would have been just as bad, believe me, and you probably know it.

Norwester
Guest
As a long term unpaid carer for a person on a disability pension I find it difficult to restrain myself from wishing similar misfortune on the likes of Andrews and his cronies. So I then give myself a lecture on not wishing misfortune on their family members – who may not all agree with their views anyway. Doesn’t stop me from visualising 1792 era justice for Andrews and his mates. This really is heading (yeah no pun) close to 1930’s stuff and it is going to make life just about unbearable for a lot of people. This is policy that… Read more »
lyndajcla
Guest

Hello Puff…well said

confessions
Guest

[Now if misandry is the abuse i have to cop every time I make a criticism of any male or males as a group, this sociologist is going to leave this site for somewhere else. I already cut back my visits here because I find every time I mention Julia Gillard I am targeted. ]

Puffy:

Do as I do and just breeze through it. I take the view that if there are commenters who want to pitch a fit about my views on Old White Men or JG, then they can go fuck themselves.

guytaur
Guest

Puff

If nothing else woman are responsible for raising the men and giving them values that means they go and start wars.

Most of the time you are spot on but on this one I think you are not as I think the values that start wars are an equal opportunity fault. Its just seems like men because they are the ones generally in power in patriarchal societies

Wakefield
Guest

Describing the Abbott Hockey budget as tough fiscal action is way off the mark. The wealthy will contribute little if anything. The battlers are being targetted. Nasty fiscal action is the correct description. And it is going down a treat with the recipients.

Centre
Guest

55/45

Not bad.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

typo
“women are not responsible for the wars”

pedant
Guest

LL @ 1107: If Newspoll is favouring the ALP in the TTPV 55:45, that represents an 8.5% swing since the election, not 7.5% as stated by Mr Hudson.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Centre
You sound like those people who say all politicians are as bad as each other.
You did not address my claim that women are responsible for the wars that have plagued this planet since groups of humans met each other around a waterhole. In this modern times they are not responsible for the way the world’s resources are used because they don’t bloody well control them. Nor do we control the decisions men make have wars.

Refute it if you can. And stop hiding behind the equivalency argument.

guytaur
Guest

@abcnews: From @qanda: One-time @LiberalAus candidate challenges @SHendersonMP over Government’s mandate on welfare changes http://t.co/f6euxlOvIz

Wakefield
Guest

Puff – I appreciate your input and mostly agree, including the debate on Gillard. Letting certain posters get under your skin though is not a good idea. The volume of talking is well recognised to be unrelated to the quality of contribution – some contributors need to be mostly passed by to avoid giving them oxygen.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 10s

#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 31 (+1) Disapprove 62 (+1) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

s

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 59s

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-2) ALP 55 (+2) #auspol

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-2) ALP 55 (+2) #auspol”

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-government-continues-to-struggle-newspoll-figures-show/story-fn59niix-1226972945884 [Abbott government continues to struggle, Newspoll figures show The Australian June 30, 2014 10:49PM Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra SUPPORT for the Abbott government is now 10 points below its election-winning vote nearly 300 days ago, with the Coalition not making any headway since the budget in selling its tough fiscal message. The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows voters have shifted to the Greens, Labor and independents. For the fifth consecutive Newspoll, Labor is ahead of the Coalition in two-party terms and would comfortably win if an election were held today. Based on preference flows from… Read more »
pedant
Guest

PTMD @ 1099: Mrs Thatcher and the Falklands?

Kinkajou
Guest

Morrison being given the immolated Tamil as his own responsibility by a friend of the dead man. Pick the bones out of that

Centre
Guest

Typo

Should read: There are women in the Liberal Party who support Abbott, Morrison, Hockey and Andrews @ 1102.

guytaur
Guest

Its going to be hard for Abbott to ignore calls for the Child Abuse RC to be funded and extended as Lateline regards its creation as a result of their stories and will keep pursuing it if Abbott tries to derail it.

Centre
Guest

Puffy

Therte are women in the Labor Party who support Abbott, Morrison, Hockey and Andrews.

Give me a break, women are not perfect, they’re just as bad as men!

zoidlord
Guest

Interestingly:

Oxford University ‏@UniofOxford 9m

Shaming people won’t get them off welfare, concludes new research in forthcoming book by Oxford prof Robert Walker:http://tinyurl.com/n8cvmf3

Rossmore
Guest

Stiglitz should be good on Lateline.

BTW Where’s Newspoll tonight?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
It is not misandry to point out that wars are and always have been instigated, carried out and financed by men. Men plan the wars, make the armies, take the resources to fund armaments, and destroy people, animals, habitats and thousands of years of infrustructure in their wars. Women and kids are involved but that is all. In addition men use wars to steal goods, rape women and kids and torture non-combatants. Additionally or maybe purposely wars allow men to relate to each other in ways considered as a sign of homosexuality in civil life. Now if misandry is the… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

“@forthleft: “When did your party perceive the need to attack these people in this way” is replied with sputum & second-hand vomit from Henderson #qanda”

Centre
Guest

Well Sarah Henderson had to get the last say didn’t she with her reckless Labor spending?

Disgusting!

guytaur
Guest

Labor and Greens should make that a slogan.

Mr Abbott when did you get a mandate to attack the disabled the aged the unemployed?

guytaur
Guest

“@Gordeauz: Did Sarah Henderson jut try and claim NDIS as theirs #qanda?”

guytaur
Guest

Good people in this QandA crowd

zoidlord
Guest

@bemused/1090

Define effective opposition?

Martin B
Guest

When I think of barriers to people with episodic mental illness gaining meaningful work I think ‘clearly it is the fault of the social security system and the way payments are structured’.

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