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Federal Election 2016

Jun 28, 2014

Seat of the week: Maribyrnong

Bill Shorten's electoral home in Melbourne's inner north-west extends from marginal Essendon and Moonee Ponds in the east to rock-solid Labor St Albans in the west.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bill Shorten’s electorate of Maribyrnong has covered a shifting area around Essendon in Melbourne’s inner north-west since its creation in 1906. It presently extends westwards from Essendon through Niddrie and Avondale Heights to St Albans. Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1969, prior to which it was held for the Liberals for 14 years by Philip Stokes. Stokes had emerged a beneficiary of the Labor split ahead of the 1955 election, at which preferences from the ALP (Anti-Communist) candidate enabled him to unseat Labor’s Arthur Drakeford by 114 votes, in what was only Labor’s second defeat since 1910. The seat finally returned to the Labor fold at the 1969 election when it was won by Moss Cass, who secured enough of a buffer through successive swings in 1972 and 1974 to survive Labor’s electoral winter of 1975 and 1977. In 1983 he bequeathed a double-digit margin to his successor Alan Griffiths, who enjoyed a 7.4% boost when the 1990 redistribution added St Albans, which remains a particularly strong area for Labor. Griffiths was succeeded in 1996 by Bob Sercombe, who chose to bow out at the 2007 election rather than face preselection defeat at the hands of Australian Workers Union national secretary Bill Shorten.

Shorten came to parliament with a national reputation after positioning himself as the public face of the Beaconsfield mine disaster rescue effort in April-May 2006, and wielded great influence in the Victorian party factional system as a chieftain of the Right. However, Shorten was known to be hostile to Kevin Rudd, and rose no higher than parliamentary secretary for disabilities and children’s services during Rudd’s first term as Prime Minister. Shorten then emerged as one of the initiators of the June 2010 leadership coup, together with Victorian Right colleague David Feeney, and interstate factional allies Mark Arbib in New South Wales and Don Farrell in South Australia. After the 2010 election he was promoted to the outer ministry as Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation, and he then won promotion to an expanded cabinet by further taking on the employment and workplace relations portfolio in December 2011. Nonetheless, Shorten’s political stocks were generally thought to have been depleted by the political travails of Julia Gillard, whom he crucially abandoned in June 2013 to facilitate Kevin Rudd’s return. For this he was rewarded with a portfolio swap of financial services and superannuation for education.

After the 2013 election defeat, Shorten and Anthony Albanese of the Left emerged as the two candidates for the first leadership ballot held under the party’s new rules, in which the vote was divided evenly between the party membership and caucus. Albanese proved the clear favourite of the membership, in part reflecting the taint Shorten was perceived as carrying from his involvement in successive leadership coups against sitting prime ministers. However, Shorten’s 55-31 victory in the caucus vote was just sufficient to outweigh his 59.92%-40.08% deficit in the ballot of approximately 30,000 party members, the combined result being 52.02% for Shorten and 47.98% for Albanese.

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1141 comments

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Fran Barlow
Guest
Bemused defined ‘effective opposition’ as follows [One capable of forming a government and actually doing stuff. N.B. Not the Greens.] I’d say that an effective opposition was one that could manage to prevent things getting done. The opposition to the 43rd parliament met your test, but failed mine. We Greens are obviously not yet an effective opposition but that’s not to say we won’t be one day. Sometime after that, we may even get to lead a government. Whatever we do though, we will do the most important thing — stand four-square alongside those fighting for social justice and fair… Read more »
bemused
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1099 It is not misandry to point out that wars are and always have been instigated, carried out and financed by men. Men plan the wars, make the armies, take the resources to fund armaments, and destroy people, animals, habitats and thousands of years of infrustructure in their wars. Women and kids are involved but that is all. In addition men use wars to steal goods, rape women and kids and torture non-combatants. Additionally or maybe purposely wars allow men to relate to each other in ways considered as a sign of homosexuality in civil life. Now… Read more »
bemused
Guest

zoidlord@1093

@bemused/1090

Define effective opposition?

One capable of forming a government and actually doing stuff. N.B. Not the Greens.

Darn
Guest
[Puff, the Magic Dragon. Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK Centre You sound like those people who say all politicians are as bad as each other. You did not address my claim that women are responsible for the wars that have plagued this planet since groups of humans met each other around a waterhole. In this modern times they are not responsible for the way the world’s resources are used because they don’t bloody well control them. Nor do we control the decisions men make have wars. Refute it if you can. And stop hiding behind… Read more »
Sustainable future
Guest
45:55 trending away from abbott – a beautiful set of numbers. I wonder how long he’ll be able to convince the party room than switching the elected leader is electoral suicide. my guess is the powers in charge of him will use his unpopularity to ram through a hard right agenda and booby-trap the budget for the returning labor government in 2016, or ditch abbott six months out from the election know that anybody will be more popular. the neutered and spineless turnbull might even be given the job just so he can get the ‘PM’ title in history books… Read more »
Norwester
Guest

So Abbott net approval -31.

Perhaps the 7 percent undecided are not as we might suspect all fluffyheads, but could plausibly include some respondents who were so speechless with rage at the interviewers question that they became catatonic.

guytaur
Guest

confessions

I am not claiming that. The whole post makes it plain I see it as equal opportunity.

Its just males have more opportunity to be in power.

Moving on to next thread.

Dingbat The First
Guest

You might be onto something Guytaur. It would certainly explain a lot, behaving like children, incapable of control, self-centred. Good reason to keep them away from pointy things and things that go bang.

confessions
Guest

guytaur:

Yeah, but not on a scale that says men who fuck up can lay blame with their mothers.

pedant
Guest

FarQU @ 1123: As it happens, I agree with your statement, which is slightly more measured than PTMD’s. I simply make the point that Mrs Thatcher led the UK during the Falklands War. (And of course Golda Meir led Israel during the Yom Kippur war.)

Centre
Guest

Why is it necessary to categorise between men and women?

Sheesh, if Gillard was a Liberal PM she would have been crowned Saint Mother Thatcher The 2nd by Rupe and his butt cleansers.

I’m moving on!

guytaur
Guest

confessions

You think mothers do not give ethics and values to their children?

confessions
Guest

[If nothing else woman are responsible for raising the men and giving them values that means they go and start wars.]

Jesus guytaur, whose arse did you pluck that shit from?

Rossmore
Guest

55:45 I’ll take that at this stage of the electoral cycle.

Ratchets up the pressure on the LNP nicely … Its plea for fiscal austerity is clearly falling on deaf ears …

zoidlord
Guest

Oh and ABC finally reports polling too btw, but only on QLD:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-30/qld-government-trails-labor-in-newspoll/5558682

guytaur
Guest

pedant

I would not be surprised if Palmer was on the phone to him as we speak

pedant
Guest

guytaur @ 1112: Mr Palmer should be on the phone to him straight away to get him as a PUP candidate for the Victorian election.

Dingbat The First
Guest

Pedant and Centre,

When the overwhelming majority of the world’s violent crimes are no longer committed by men, you will have a point. Women are not as bad as men. They are not even close.

As for 1118 – FMD.

Centre
Guest

Puffy

Oh don’t worry, if they had equal power in the past they would have been just as bad, believe me, and you probably know it.

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