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Queensland Politics

Jun 29, 2014

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

After a polling dark age for Queensland Labor going back to 2010, Newspoll's latest quarterly state voting intention result finds it taking a narrow lead, with the Liberal National Party bleeding support to Palmer United.

Newspoll’s latest quarterly reading of state voting intention in Queensland has turned in a big result, showing the Labor opposition with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred – only Labor’s second lead in this series since the 2009 election, barring one aberrant result in the immediate aftermath of the floods crisis in early 2011. The primary vote results show Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government suffering an alarming eight-point slump on the primary vote to 32%. Since Labor is also off two to 34% and the Greens are steady on 8%, it may be presumed that a surge for the Palmer United Party has cost the LNP heavily. The two-party preferred result compares with a 52-48 lead to the LNP in the previous poll of January-to-March. Leadership ratings and such presumably to follow shortly. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of The Australian. Campbell Newman’s already unspectacular personal ratings have copped a further hit, his approval down three points to 33% and disapproval up three to 57%. However, Annastacia Palaszczuk has suffered an even bigger reverse from a far better base, her approval down three to 35% and disapproval up seven to 37%. Newman’s lead as preferred premier is down slightly, from 41-35 to 39-35. Hopefully I’ll find time to put up a poll trend chart tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: Here’s a poll trend chart which I’ve put much labour into to cover the gaps being left by various pollsters, most conspicuously in relation to Newspoll – from which, perversely, we are still not getting a primary vote result for Palmer United, unlike the dead-in-the-water Katter’s Australian Party (represented in the chart by the dotted purple line). According to The Australian, the hike in Newspoll’s “others” rating from 15% to 24% owes more to independents than Palmer United. If I had hard numbers to include in my calculations which reflected that, the surge to them recorded in the chart would be somewhat more modest.

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50 comments

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Rocket Rocket
Guest

I just read the absolutely-totally-completely unbiased Editorial in today’s “Courier-Mail”

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-latest-poll-figures-fail-to-tell-the-real-story-behind-newman-governments-achievements/story-fnihsr9v-1226972904793

And there you have it – the current Queensland people in these polls are unfairly punishing Campbell Newman’s Governmnet, so what Queensland obviously needs is a new, different lot of people who WILL vote for him

Raaraa
Guest

48

Polling for the Greens is strangely missing or left out? Admittedly the Greens probably wouldn’t do as well as PUP but surely better than Katter.

zoidlord
Guest

@GG/44

That must be different reachtel poll:

AAPJune 30, 2014 11:53AM
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/national/lnp-loses-support-after-qld-budget-poll/story-fnjbnvyf-1226958584895

LNP Primary 37%
Labor 33%
PUP 12.3%
KAP 2.8%

1671 respondents

Public Service Union Together

zoidlord
Guest

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/deputy-premier-jeff-seeney-says-new-poll-results-showing-poor-performance-is-sobering-for-lnp-government/story-fnihsrk2-1226972845900?nk=3a32445d15e1af75e0a8f22d479f71d5

“Describing the result of the latest poll as “sobering”, the Deputy Premier yesterday said the Government might have been over-eager to reform and must now convince Queenslanders about the merits of its decisions.”

Must be hard to admit 😉

I thought LNP don’t comment on polls?

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/new-poll-shows-lnp-at-risk-of-losing-election-20140409-36ci1.html

““We don’t comment on polls and I don’t live in a world of hindsight. It is about doing actions, working hard for the people of Queensland.””

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Did see a comment in the Oz dead tree edition suggesting the “others” were more Ind than PUP in this poll, but not sure how robust that comment is – or result if true!

Raaraa
Guest

39 ruawake

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/state_colleagues_curse_abbott/

This mumble blog is guessing that those who picked PUP first said others.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Apparently, Clive is losing local support while he launces himself on the National stage.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/reachtel_poll_palmer_loses_a_third_of_his_vote_in_fairfax/

John Ryan
Guest

Just on Palmer the mans a carpetbagger he shown he is as good a liar as Abbott dont trust him

John Ryan
Guest

The OZ like all NEWS CORP Papers only tell you what they want you to hear,truth to NEWS CORP does not exist unless its Murdochs version

Ross
Guest

BoP, thanks. I wasn’t aware that Judge had been preselected in Kawana, though it’s a pity he has no previous affiliation there. Game on!

Bird of paradox
Guest

Ross at 31: the PUP candidate in Kawana is Carl Judge, the current member for Yeerongpilly (who defected from the LNP a couple of years ago). Palmer’s definitely giving it a shake.

http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/PUP-candidate-denies-abandoning-Brisbane-kawana/2199821/

ruawake
Guest

[It’s hard not to conclude that what we’re seeing here is The Oz’s pettiness at work once again.]

Is it The Oz or Newspoll? Did Newspoll ask the PUP question and it was not reported or were they asked not to ask the PUP question?

deblonay
Guest

Is is me or is there something odd in this poll

Why haven’t Newspoll given the vote for PUP in Qland ???
_____________________________________
They list a small vote for Katter’s Party but what must be a large Palmer vote is simple placed with the almost 25% which is given to”others””
Is it the endless OZ campaign by Murdoch against Palmer ,following over from the editorial and news pages of the Murdoch press
If there is a great leap in Palmer’s vote it is surely a news(NEWS)story? but no !

I do not want to seem paranoid,but it seems odd.as PUP must have a bigger vote then the Greens…so why no list it here ????

Martin B
Guest

It’s hard to imagine an electoral environment more conducive to PUP than next year’s Qld election (is currently looking to be).

zoidlord
Guest

Wrong thread suppose to be in main thread!

zoidlord
Guest
Centre
Guest

When are right wing extremists going to get it?

The Australian people DO NOT want your ideological extreme policies.

The only reason that the far right wingers get elected is because of media support from Murdoch – that is all!

It’s not democracy – PROVEN by the results of this poll.

People wake up! The Liberal Party is not the Liberal Party of the past, they’re American Tea Party style.

Ross
Guest

The A-G’s seat of Kawana on the sunny coast may be vulnerable to a PUP challenge if Clive wants to put in a lot of resources. I reckon Clive regards Bjeijie as a young upstart and a threat to his plans to corporatise Queensland. Although the margin of 26% may seem formidable, it is soft when you factor in the 17% won by PUP plus the 3% won by Katter at the 2013 federal election in Fisher. It will be softer still if labor goes to sleep – as it usually does. Bleijie is sure to suffer some opprobrium from the recent judicial kerfuffle and perhaps for his bikie laws.

Failing all that, we the people could conscript Tony Fitzgerald to run as an Indy.

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