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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 30, 2014

Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a slight improving trend for the Abbott government in recent weeks, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result has it back to its worst.

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The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.

Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.

UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:

• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).

• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.

On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.

The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.

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