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Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll's latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott's approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

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CTar1
Guest

[Kate McCann’s son asked her about her role in the disappearance of her daughter Madeleine in 2007, telling her: “Mr Amaral said you hid Madeleine”.]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/kate-mccann-told-by-her-son-mr-amaral-said-you-hid-madeleine-9590763.html

I’m finding it harder to believe that they don’t know somewhat more than they are telling.

Amanda Knox same.

daretotread
Guest

Greens do not do as well (usually) as polling predicts because:

1. Once at the polling booth people revert to form ie chickening out on a vote change and voting the way they always have

2. Because they are often younger I assume quite a number fail to turn up or actually are not properly enrolled

3. Influence of booth workers ie more ALP and LNP

4. Possibly a polling artefact ie proportionally more greens are contacted by phone

However over time these factors will fade as “green” voting becomes the norm for many.

citizen
Guest

[guytaur
Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 2:58 pm | PERMALINK
“@gabriellechan: The High Court’s Justice Crennan refers the Tamil asylum seeker case to the full court. #politicslive http://t.co/fbyN1YfnV8 via @guardian” ]

So the 153 asylum seekers are on an Australian government vessel somewhere, have not yet been been given to the Sri Lankan navy and are enjoying a diet of vegemite sandwiches for the foreseeable future.

Is Morrison obliged to let their legal representatives contact them?

zoomster
Guest

Astro

‘sample size’ is part of MOE – that is, a smaller sample size leads to larger MOEs.

guytaur
Guest

zoomster

If there is a difference in polling aand an election result it means the polling is wrong

zoomster
Guest

Astro, it isn’t a theory at all. It’s an observation. You can, of course, build on observations to arrive at theories…

poroti
Guest

mikehilliard

Nothing new there .Where I was working in the very early 2000’s they had the bloody local red neck radio on permanently. Calls suggesting the navy should blow a couple of AS boats out of the water so as to stop the boats was on “high rotation”. The shock jocks were all “I can understand how you feel” not condoning but wink wink.

zoomster
Guest

Astrobleme

I would have thought that the hypothesis – the Green share of the vote declines the closer one gets to an election – is pretty sound, given the results in the lead up to the last two elections.

Of course, the test of a theory is whether or not it can be used to predict future events, so we’ll wait and see…

Astrobleme
Guest

Zoomster

“Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.”

This is also a different theory to the first one. You were saying that the Greens would do worse than they did in 2013…

Bushfire Bill
Guest

Talking head #1 on ABC-24 says social media is the best way to follow the High Court Hearing.

Talking Head #2 say the Court has adjourned for a “wee” break.

Social media says the case has been forwarded to the Full Court.

Go figure.

Astrobleme
Guest

Zoomster

“Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.”

MoE?

Astrobleme
Guest

Zoomster

That’s not really a theory that can be used to project forward. It’s simply an observation that the Greens vote changed in relation to what was happening.

Raaraa
Guest

759

[I guess that means sinking them. So much hate is hard to understand.]

That explains why they’re so eager to get those F35 JSFs.

Jackol
Guest
I very much doubt the Greens will do worse than they did in 2013 – at the 2013 election the Greens were largely seen as being ‘in government’ with the very unpopular (at the time) ALP, and I imagine the Greens vote was (additionally) depressed as a result. Not to mention that a lot of the public seemed determined to vote the ALP out, and that kind of mood tends to translate (as zoomster has argued before) as pushing people to the opposite extreme rather than letting people stop off in minor party half-way houses or protest parties. The next… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

“@gabriellechan: The High Court’s Justice Crennan refers the Tamil asylum seeker case to the full court. #politicslive http://t.co/fbyN1YfnV8 via @guardian”

Rex Douglas
Guest
guytaur
Guest

“@KarenMMiddleton: The Govt, via legal reps in the #highcourt153 case, has promised to give 72hrs notice of handing asylum seekers to Sri Lankan authorities”

zoomster
Guest

…and the same pattern is obvious in the lead up to 2010, with the Greens polling 12-14% in the lead up to the election, with a final result of 11.8%.

Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.

guytaur
Guest

Lambie

guytaur
Guest

Senator Wong just showed again she is smarter than Senator Abetz responding to Senator Lambi

Roger Miller
Guest

Greens are up so high in WA because state Labor has been hopeless. First losing to a clearly dysfunctional coalition in the state election, then putting up a terrible candidate at the top of the ticket for the senate rerun, against a really good campaign from Senator Ludlam.

guytaur
Guest

2.45pm AEST
Merkel is relying on the 2010 case M61/2010 v Commonwealth to support his submissions on the issues surrounding procedural fairness for asylum seekers. Here’s the judgment summary (which is not the judge’s reasons) from that earlier case, which related to the assessment processes for asylum seekers on Christmas Island:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/asylum-seeker-high-court-challenge-against-handover-to-sri-lanka-live#start-of-comments

zoomster
Guest
An analysis of Newspoll polls going back to the election in 2010 demonstrates why I don’t think present Green polling will be replicated at the next election. In 2010, the Greens garnered 11.8% of the votes. They had an immediate post election bounce in Newspoll, consistently scoring 14% for the rest of 2010 and peaking at 15% in October 2011. Throughout 2012, they scored 11-12%, and 9-11% in 2013, with 9% as their final pre election polling figure. At the actual election, their vote was 8.7%. So the Greens consistently polled higher than their final vote, and the closer they… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

“@oliverlaughland: Gleeson, acting for Morrison, says vessel was intercepted in Aus contiguous zone and all have been moved to high seas #highcourt153”

So they made it to Australia then

guytaur
Guest

“@annajhenderson: Greens @SenatorSurfer asks whether Former CBA CEO David Murray has a conflict in reviewing calls for Royal Commission into the bank #auspol”

fredex
Guest

Oops I forget the gender split.
Greens are up, since the election, by 2.8% [male] and 3.9% [fem].

guytaur
Guest

2.24pm AEST
We’re now hearing the first news from the court proceedings trickle through. There are between 21 and 29 minors on board, with the youngest just two years old. Only eight minors are involved in the current action.

fredex
Guest
The Greens vote is increasing from the election in every category in Newspoll quarterly. 18-34 … + 5.4% 34-49…. + 3% 50+ ….. + 1 -> 2% Non-capitals …. + 3-> 4% 5 Capitals …….. + 3% As is the ALP. But the total Greens increase is greater than the total ALP increase, 2.7% compared to 3.3%. Any optimism about the ALP increasing its vote by the next election has to, going on the poll numbers, include optimism for the Greens doing equally as well or even marginally better. Basically the Greens vote is outperforming, slightly, the ALP vote. And… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Tom Hawkins

Indeed

daretotread
Guest

MikeH

Hate and tribalism are deep in the human psyche. Anyone who thinks that Germany between the wars could not happen here is delusional. The best we can do is avoid fanning the flames and lead by example to less xenophobia.

sohar
Guest

Essential is weird, as usual; it is hard to believe the combined Lib/Lab vote is 79%. While Greens and PUP might be close enough, I think others is higher than 6%.

Tom Hawkins
Guest

Essential is indication enough to me that Shorten is playing the game correctly.

mikehilliard
Guest

Keane & Crikey

[…nearly a fifth of voters continue to want even more draconian measures adopted against asylum seekers]

I guess that means sinking them. So much hate is hard to understand.

victoria
Guest

Judith Sloan and Andrew Bolt separated at birth!

https://mobile.twitter.com/KieraGorden/status/486147297995010049/photo/1

gloryconsequence
Guest

When was the last Essential with a 40 ALP primary? That’s significant.

BK
Guest

Michaelia Cash is giving a stunning bogan queen performance at Senate QT.

daretotread
Guest

Looking at the Morgan cumulative figures again it seems that:

1. Labor needs to target MALES. There is a 5% difference in greens plus ALP

2. Labor needs to target Queensland – try to get to even there

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

ooh, an ALP primary starting with a “4”.

Rare birds, those ones.

Benji
Guest

Essential primaries:

ALP 40% (+2)
LNP 39%(-1)
Greens 9% (0)
PUP 6% (0)

daretotread
Guest

Look if the current polling is true AND the WA senate election holds, the Green vote is already pushing 17% in some states.

My feeling is that Greens vote will steadily rise as a goodly share of the under 30s stick to their green votes, even as they grow older.

Has anyone notices the REMARKABLE Male female differences. the coalition and Green vote adds to 50% for both but a full 5% of women vote green rather than coalition. That is a “helluvalot” of Drs Wives.

BK
Guest

Cameron was saying the extremists are in control of the government and the Nats have sold out.

BK
Guest

Doug Cameron going right off in the Senate. Get on to it.

zoidlord
Guest

@Bk/748

Of course it’s old people again.

Those most likely to think it has been good were Liberal/National voters (76%) and aged 55+ (54%).

BK
Guest

But look what this government has done to our collective attitudes towards asylum seekers.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/07/08/essential-approval-rises-for-asylum-seeker-policy/

citizen
Guest
PUP is certainly adding a level of complexity to the Senate debates: [The Palmer United Party is finalising details of its emissions trading scheme and expects to bring an extraordinary 300-page amendment to the Senate next week. The amendments will halt the abolition of the Climate Change Authority (CCA), allocate new money to the agency and put it in charge of monitoring climate action by Australia’s five major trading partners. And as key details of the scheme emerge, Palmer United leader Clive Palmer has warned the government not to try to pull the wool over the eyes of his inexperienced… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Interesting that Esssential:

Q. A recent Government report suggested that the Disability Support Pension should only be paid to those with a permanent disability and those with a disability who have current or future capacity to work should receive a lower level of benefit. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

The proposal was most strongly supported by respondents aged 55+ (59%).

Old people more concerned with Age Pension then Disabled Pension, and prefer the disabled get knocked off.

Typical old farts.

guytaur
Guest

“@safimichael: About 15 people in the court but more expected ahead of 2:15 start. Link to Syd has been tested. “Let the roadshow begin,” says a registrar”

zoidlord
Guest

Two Party Preferred: 8 July 2014
Labor
53+1
Coalition
47-1

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

[In hindsight, I wish someone’s has had the foresight to have done something like that. Shame we chose to have a sovereign fund with only non-commodities.]

Labor in Qld did, it’s called the QIC.

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