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Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll's latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott's approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

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CTar1
Guest

[Kate McCann’s son asked her about her role in the disappearance of her daughter Madeleine in 2007, telling her: “Mr Amaral said you hid Madeleine”.]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/kate-mccann-told-by-her-son-mr-amaral-said-you-hid-madeleine-9590763.html

I’m finding it harder to believe that they don’t know somewhat more than they are telling.

Amanda Knox same.

daretotread
Guest

Greens do not do as well (usually) as polling predicts because:

1. Once at the polling booth people revert to form ie chickening out on a vote change and voting the way they always have

2. Because they are often younger I assume quite a number fail to turn up or actually are not properly enrolled

3. Influence of booth workers ie more ALP and LNP

4. Possibly a polling artefact ie proportionally more greens are contacted by phone

However over time these factors will fade as “green” voting becomes the norm for many.

citizen
Guest

[guytaur
Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 2:58 pm | PERMALINK
“@gabriellechan: The High Court’s Justice Crennan refers the Tamil asylum seeker case to the full court. #politicslive http://t.co/fbyN1YfnV8 via @guardian” ]

So the 153 asylum seekers are on an Australian government vessel somewhere, have not yet been been given to the Sri Lankan navy and are enjoying a diet of vegemite sandwiches for the foreseeable future.

Is Morrison obliged to let their legal representatives contact them?

zoomster
Guest

Astro

‘sample size’ is part of MOE – that is, a smaller sample size leads to larger MOEs.

guytaur
Guest

zoomster

If there is a difference in polling aand an election result it means the polling is wrong

zoomster
Guest

Astro, it isn’t a theory at all. It’s an observation. You can, of course, build on observations to arrive at theories…

poroti
Guest

mikehilliard

Nothing new there .Where I was working in the very early 2000’s they had the bloody local red neck radio on permanently. Calls suggesting the navy should blow a couple of AS boats out of the water so as to stop the boats was on “high rotation”. The shock jocks were all “I can understand how you feel” not condoning but wink wink.

zoomster
Guest

Astrobleme

I would have thought that the hypothesis – the Green share of the vote declines the closer one gets to an election – is pretty sound, given the results in the lead up to the last two elections.

Of course, the test of a theory is whether or not it can be used to predict future events, so we’ll wait and see…

Astrobleme
Guest

Zoomster

“Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.”

This is also a different theory to the first one. You were saying that the Greens would do worse than they did in 2013…

Bushfire Bill
Guest

Talking head #1 on ABC-24 says social media is the best way to follow the High Court Hearing.

Talking Head #2 say the Court has adjourned for a “wee” break.

Social media says the case has been forwarded to the Full Court.

Go figure.

Astrobleme
Guest

Zoomster

“Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.”

MoE?

Astrobleme
Guest

Zoomster

That’s not really a theory that can be used to project forward. It’s simply an observation that the Greens vote changed in relation to what was happening.

Raaraa
Guest

759

[I guess that means sinking them. So much hate is hard to understand.]

That explains why they’re so eager to get those F35 JSFs.

Jackol
Guest
I very much doubt the Greens will do worse than they did in 2013 – at the 2013 election the Greens were largely seen as being ‘in government’ with the very unpopular (at the time) ALP, and I imagine the Greens vote was (additionally) depressed as a result. Not to mention that a lot of the public seemed determined to vote the ALP out, and that kind of mood tends to translate (as zoomster has argued before) as pushing people to the opposite extreme rather than letting people stop off in minor party half-way houses or protest parties. The next… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

“@gabriellechan: The High Court’s Justice Crennan refers the Tamil asylum seeker case to the full court. #politicslive http://t.co/fbyN1YfnV8 via @guardian”

Rex Douglas
Guest
guytaur
Guest

“@KarenMMiddleton: The Govt, via legal reps in the #highcourt153 case, has promised to give 72hrs notice of handing asylum seekers to Sri Lankan authorities”

zoomster
Guest

…and the same pattern is obvious in the lead up to 2010, with the Greens polling 12-14% in the lead up to the election, with a final result of 11.8%.

Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.

guytaur
Guest

Lambie

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