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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 10, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll's quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it's otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.


A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.


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1,240 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

  1. mari

    Good morning Poll Bludgers from York, unfortunately won’t be climbing the city walls this time with these silly legs of mine

    The figures are getting better and better for ALP which is great

  2. ruawake

    Typo alert

    [This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and Queensland]

    Queensland lost and gained?

  3. sprocket_

    Greg Sherdian in the Government Gazette busy polishing, comments on his Lying Friar pal licking Abe’s boots and why it’s a diplomatic triumph.

    [THE friendship between the two nations should not hurt relations with Beijing.]

    No link is necessary.

  4. poroti


    Sheridan is quite right BUT the Abbott Oaf Factor means it could easily do so.

  5. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    What is this judge on?
    If you’re in the ADF it’s clear. Don’t rock the boat!
    Born to rule types think they can rule.
    This looks to be a bit of a shambles.
    Mark Kenny on the “hung Senate”.
    How this government will force the young adults into a life of debt.
    Michelle Grattan – the new Senate will deliver a win for Abbott but a loss for Australia.
    More budget blows from the Senate.
    The Dishonourable Scott Morrison continues his wall of silence.
    This is what Erica Betz tried to hose down with weasel words in the Senate yesterday.

  6. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    The NSW government threatens the future of domestic violence shelters.
    More scorn constructively poured onto Abbott’s CC stubbornness.
    It’s not just some of the new Senators that are strange. Bernardi is a champion in that respect.
    Come on Abbott and Co – do something right for a change!
    What did this country do to deserve such a ridiculous excuse for an MP as George Christensen?
    Tony Wright on how the first week of the new Senate didn’t go the way Abbot had trumpeted it would go.
    David Marr examines the legalities of the current AS situation.
    The fallacy of the government’s Newstart direction.

  7. billie

    The video in this link is Joseph Stiglitz talking about the economy with a respectful interviewer

  8. BK

    And from the Land of the Free –

    Is America politically mature enough for single payer health care?
    The American Tealiban.
    Rachael Maddow blasts the conservative media.
    Duty of care Kentucky style.
    Family values Tennessee style.
    Sore losing Mississippi style.
    Empirical evidence of how availability of birth control drastically reduces teen pregnancies and abortions. Suck it up Repugs!
    Family dispute management North Carolina style.
    I hope this goes all the way up to the SCOTUS.
    And let’s hope this legislation gets up.
    One of FoxNews’s (compulsory) blondes has had enough of Bill O’Reilly.

  9. zoomster


    I realise that here you are as God and all things are possible to you, but are you sure you can have a gain of two seats to Queensland and a loss of one at the same time?

  10. zoomster

    Wouldn’t it be refreshing if some journo manned up and said, “Look, we let youse all down in the lead up to the election. Whoops.”

    Instead we get —

    [The uncomfortable truth about the unrivalled verity of election 2013 is that the promise to scrap the carbon tax is more costly than was ever explained.

    And that is quite apart from whether its abolition is sound policy – which it clearly is not.]

    Who never explained this? I certainly can remember a chorus of Labor party Ministers, MPs and candidates trying to spell it out.

    [‘Axe the tax, stop the boats, end the waste, repay the debt.” It seemed pretty simple.]

    Yep, it did, didn’t it?

    Never seemed to occur to any of his mob that nothing in life – and nothing in politics – is that simple, and that glib answers to questions shouldn’t just be accepted.

    But hey, having written a couple of paras about how mysterious it all is that nobody running up to the election apparently noticed any of this, I’m sure this journo thinks he’s absolved himself…

    [Even the boats policy is under a new cloud with the government forced into an embarrassing legal limbo by the High Court..]

    EVEN the boat policy?

    Listen, mate – when something is shrouded in secrecy and the Minister refuses to ask questions, that’s a sign that something’s dodgy and needs investigating, not that everything is jolly and we’ll just leave it at that.

    One of the reasons that ‘even the boat policy’ is being investigated is that at last someone has got their hands on some evidence – not that somehow something has gone wrong just in the last week or so.

    Once upon a time, there would have been a concerted media campaign devoted to finding out what it was that Morrison wasn’t talking about, and the glory of exposing the whole thing would be going to some investigative journo somewhere.

    Nowadays, you just tell them it’s an ‘onwater operational matter’ or don’t let them have a visa to Manus and it’s apples.

    [”Axing the tax” applied to Labor’s two most ”pernicious” imposts, the carbon and mining taxes. The former worked so well it became the economy’s job-killing wrecking ball and python squeeze all at once. The latter raised virtually no revenue to pay for billions in new spending justified against its projected growth.]

    And then, after all that ‘who knew?’ stuff, he goes back to just trotting out what the Liberals have been telling him.

    [It will go soon even if that spending will not, thanks to the new populist bent of the Senate.]

    Apparently ‘it’ is the mining tax. We already know that PUP is threatening to block its repeal – given yesterday, I’m surprised this journo is so cheerfully predicting this.

    [As for ditching the carbon tax – which the government says will occur on Thursday – the process has been heavily compromised.]

    Not yesterday, as Abbott declared at lunchtime.

    This journo still doesn’t seem to have twigged that you can’t rely on what the government’s saying as a guide to anything.

    [Thanks to Clive Palmer’s Senate trio and his on-off bloc including the surprising motoring enthusiast Ricky Muir, major pieces of that architecture will remain.]

    I’d like to know what’s surprising abotu Ricky Muir. That he’s a motoring enthusiast? That he’s not blindly following Clive’s orders (when there’s no particular reason he should)?

    Why aren’t Madigan or the Lib Dem guy surprising? Because they’re not ‘motoring enthusiasts’?

    [The dominant characteristic of the new Senate is unpredictability. Fault lines run in every direction. If the path of these clearly mandated changes is so contested, what can we expect in the case of budget nasties like the GP tax that were never even mentioned?]

    We can expect that they won’t get up. It’s not unpredictable at all. As it wasn’t mentioned at the last election, none of the new Senators have locked themselves into a position on it, and it was clear long ago that no one outside of the government wants their name associated it.

    Can I have a job in the press gallery, please?

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/upper-house-unpredictability-leaves-coalition-stalled-20140709-3bncm.html#ixzz370l0VWuw

  11. Boerwar

    Thank you BK. And here is a little giftie in return: fear and loathing in Liberal Land.

    Not only are they bastardising everyone except spivs, bankers, JSF sellers, and roman catholics out in the real world, they are sticking it to each other with enthusiasm behind closed doors.

    We all know that Savva detests Credlin and that Savva has Credlin well and truly in her sights, see below. But the real issue is what the Monster Raving Loonie Prime Minister doing with a COS who, IMHO, is a vindictive, micro-managing vicious ratbag out of her policy deopth? It was alright while she was managing his stunts in opposition but doing government is a whole other thing entirely. And doesn’t it show.

    So, some very truly excellent news for Bludgers everywhere brought to you by Nikki Savva in today’s ‘The Australian’. I trust that William will forgive me this rare foray into very extensive quotation:

    ‘EVERY now and again, rumours percolate that Malcolm Turnbull is thinking of not running at the next election. Turnbull dismisses them with a joke. He will be there, he reckons, happy to serve until Wyatt Roy becomes prime minister. Very funny.

    Except that what has been happening within or around the government is neither funny, nor productive, nor even grown-up. Turnbull’s deflection, denial, prediction — whatever — about his future, is not nearly as amusing when you consider that, the way things are going, the 24-year-old Roy could well be the next Liberal prime minister. LOL if you dare.

    The government has a common purpose — to implement its policies as best it can and secure re-election — but love does not run deep or wide within its ranks. It is not tightly bound or bonded, its management skills remain sadly deficient and its communic­ations strategy is mystifying to say the least.

    Carbon tax repeal will provide only temporary respite from the grind. As soon as one battle appears won, lest victory be sav­oured, another erupts on a different front. Clive Palmer rolls hand grenades like Maltesers down the corridor outside the Prime Minister’s office morning, noon and night, spending our money as if it were his own. Then the High Court, which killed off Julia Gillard’s Malaysia Solution, drops a potential depth charge.

    The government’s ability to deal with issues, combined with how much of what it proposes it actually succeeds in getting passed by the Senate, will ultim­ately determine its fate.

    As one of the more realistic participants puts it, it is futile to predict or bank on what will happen in the Senate, so the government has to take it one day at a time, one bill at a time, one vote at a time. Ricky Muir rammed it home yesterday by voting with Labor and the Greens to keep debate going on the carbon tax.

    For good or ill, the new Senate looks more like Australia than any Senate has for decades, replete with all the diversity and dysfunction that implies, so it will need a lot of time, a lot of patience, and a lot of grovelling by the government to get anything done.

    Speaking of dysfunctional, although it was not required, Turnbull’s quarantining from the appointments (theoretically made by the head of the Prime Minister’s Department, Ian Watt) of Neil Brown and Janet Albrecht­sen to the panel which recommends candidates for the ABC and SBS boards was more bad politics and revealed a lack of trust.

    Regardless of the merits of the appointments, or the merits of the ABC, Turnbull does have a right as a senior cabinet minister with responsibility for communications to be consulted, as well as a right to be peeved when he is not, because he — like everybody else — knows that few decisions are made without the say-so of the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, and through her the Prime Minister.

    Think Jimmy Carter as president deciding who can use the White House tennis courts and you get the picture.

    The appointments have been cast as payback for Turnbull’s “honesty” about the problems besetting the government, along with his failure to tell anyone that he had, even if by accident, dined with Clive Palmer and the Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson.

    Turnbull has been naughty, no doubt about it. Not naughty enough to be disciplined or sacked, but enough to remind everyone he is still there, not going anywhere, ready to serve in whatever capacity people desire. Unlike Sri Lankan boatpeople, he cannot be disappeared.

    Along the way he oh-so-subtly concedes the other thing we all know, which few people inside the government are game to admit: that the government is up the creek without a GPS or paddle.

    While his superiors and others play down the problems, Turnbull refuses to sing like the other budgies from the daily hymn sheet about how, despite the difficulties, everything is going according to plan, or will be back on track before negative perceptions get set in that bucket of cement Jacqui Lambie — who makes Clive Palmer appear rational — keeps hurling at the Prime Minister.

    If we want to talk about payback though in this political guer­illa war, we have to go back a ways.

    We could go to Turnbull’s loss of the leadership by a vote, the days he let loose in an unprecedented fashion against his colleagues for their desertion, or the day he voted against them and with Labor in the parliament on Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme.

    There are serving Liberals who will never forgive him for all that. Others, more pragmatically, including those instrumental in his demise, keep their options open. Liberals would ignore him, the most popular in their ranks by far, at their peril if Abbott was to fall or get pushed under a bus.

    It’s also pertinent, if we talk about payback, to go back to just after the election last September when sources say Credlin refused to allow Turnbull to appoint the person he wanted as his chief of staff.

    According to sources at that time, it turned into a screaming match which climaxed when Credlin (on his staff at the time) told Turnbull one of the reasons he lost the opposition leadership was because he ran a bad office. Those who saw Turnbull soon after reported that he was visibly shaken by the “conversation”.

    Yesterday, Turnbull’s office did not deny that had occurred, saying only that the account of the conversation was not correct. They would not say which bits were not correct. Asked if Turnbull’s original choice of chief of staff was rejected by Credlin, the Prime Minister’s office gave a carefully worded response which did not quite answer the question: “The chief of staff proposed by the minister was approved by the government staff committee.”

    A spokesman denied that there had been a vigorous exchange and directed questions about the Albrechtsen/Brown appointments to Watt.

    Even in opposition, there were niggles about Abbott’s office. The sheer volume and complexity of the decisions that need to be taken daily, or even hourly, combined with an extremely hostile operating environment, guarantee that pressures will only intensify.

    One senior MP, an old mate of Abbott’s, suggested privately that he needed someone who could manage issues.

    That would be a good start.’

    Thank you Ms Savva. Good stuff. Much better than yet another Sheridan hagiography of Saint Mad Monk in the same edition. Here’s a consideration for Sheridan: most real people get the beatification treatment only after they die. It is sound policy because, in general, you don’t know exactly what people like Abbott will do while they are still alive.

  12. zoomster

    [Think Jimmy Carter as president deciding who can use the White House tennis courts and you get the picture.]

    Except it’s worse than that – think Jimmy Carter’s COS, who hasn’t been elected by anyone to anything, dictating to those who have been elected by someone what they should do.

    Yes, these guys have advisors, but – at the end of the day – the elected MP makes the decisions and knows they’ll be accountable for them at the ballot box.

    There’s a world of difference between that and someone who doesn’t have that accountability making decisions.

  13. victoria

    Morning all

    Ms Savva’s contribution is definitely good stuff, and not surprising. What is surprising is that she has spelt it out very clearly

  14. victoria


    [Except it’s worse than that – think Jimmy Carter’s COS, who hasn’t been elected by anyone to anything, dictating to those who have been elected by someone what they should do.]

    Good point.

  15. Tom L

    Jesus. Are we already at the point in the electoral cycle where Mark Kenny and Michelle Grattan tell their readers that they (readers) should have paid more attention to how terrible the coalition’s policies were before the election? The failure of self-reflection is sickening.

  16. confessions


    Nice critique of Mark Kenny’s article.

  17. victoria

    Mark kenny and Michelle Grattan were too busy at the time telling us all that Ms Gillard and Labor had to go

  18. Bird of paradox

    7 out of 15 in the west? I’d like to see that. Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling… considering there’s only six WA Labor MP’s from either house at the moment, that’d be a hefty dose of fresh blood.

    Any chance of a post about the upcoming WA redistribution? (And NSW too, I guess.) It’d be a good excuse for a state-based thread, considering the complete absence of polling here most of the time.

  19. victoria

    On twitter

    [Another day another stuff-up!
    Bishop BARKS at China via media after Abbott’s “admiration” remark. They’re barking mad-we’re stuffed!

  20. victoria

    Argentina win against the Netherlands in penalty shoot out.

    They will play in final against Germany

  21. Greensborough Growler

    That Savva piece demonstrates that the Turnbull leadership train has left the station and is building up steam. Abbott’s Budget is in tatters, his popularity is through the floor and The Clive has greenlighted his approval of Malcolm.

    After one week of the new Senate, the Libs are in total dissarray with many of their supposed hard nosed operators assuming the foetal position, sucking their thumbs and calling for their “mummies”.

    It’s only a matter of time until the conductors in the Liberal Party room chuck Abbott off the train for carrying the wrong ticket.

  22. victoria


    Do you have a time frame in mind?

  23. Rossmore

    What Savva writes is generally what the moderate Libs are thinking. Interesting she’s gone public with that Oz piece. First clear sign of internal disunity in the Libs

  24. Bushfire Bill

    I was going to write something on the breathtaking lack of self-awareness in Kenny’s article, but Zoomster’s excoriating critique was so perfect, it should stand through the ages as a prime example of the genre.

  25. victoria

    This quote from the Savva piece is curious

    [Then the High Court, which killed off Julia Gillard’s Malaysia Solution, drops a potential depth charge.]

  26. guytaur

    Good Morning

    Two long and excellent posts this morning. On Savva its interesting to note she refers to the disappeared. So it appears besides Credlin she has no love for Morrison.

    The Canberra Press Gallery is waking up to the reality that exists outside the Murdoch dominated bubble.
    They are starting to realise social media was right and they have been wrong.

    Even #bustthebudget has come about thanks to senate voting and we have not got to the real hostility over education, health and welfare.

  27. victoria

    On twitter

    [Gee. So thats now woolworths, Qantas, and electricity companies who say prices wont reduce because of carbon tax removal #auspol #suckers]

  28. victoria

    [Laurie Ferguson
    Boral executive whinges we don’t have restrictions on unions as strong as in the USA. After all they help keep the minim wage down to $7]

  29. Rossmore

    Its taken nine months, but seems all the chickens are coming home to roost on the folly of political campaigns based on three word slogans.

  30. victoria


    Actually 10 months. 🙂

  31. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Live: The Prime Minister @TonyAbbottMHR is speaking in Perth. Watch http://t.co/TTkTJ5G5Ba #ABCNews24 #auspol”

  32. guytaur

    Hey Abbott see Qantas Woolworths statement on carbon “tax” price reduction

  33. confessions

    [Its taken nine months, but seems all the chickens are coming home to roost on the folly of political campaigns based on three word slogans.]

    They haven’t transitioned into govt, they’re still playing at settling scores and running ideological flags up poles and haven’t really turned attention to the business of government.

  34. BK

    Thanmkyou for the gift from an unexpected source.
    I would have responded quicker but we got called out to a milk truck on fire in ther main street. All OK.

  35. victoria


    Never a dull moment. 🙂

  36. Greensborough Growler


    Timetabling for such things are always difficult.

    The loss of $40bill from the Budget revenue side should be a trigger. But, probably wont.

    I’d look out for lots of public announcements that his job is safe and that Turnbull is unpopular in the Party Room. Tony may become unwell and unable to continue.

    At the moment Tony is being protected from the adoring public with carefully stage managed speaches in formal occaissions amongst friends. Sooner or later he’ll have to venture out in to the voting world. I expect that may focus a few marginal seat Memebers somewhat.

  37. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 4m

    Now the carbon tax has gone, I’m turning up the heater an extra degree.

  38. guytaur

    “@MichaelPascoe01: Just watched “Strop” Abbott’s presser – the clichés, the chants, how long can he keep them without causing mass dementia?”

  39. victoria


    Abbott always looks unwell!

  40. citizen


    On twitter
    Another day another stuff-up!
    Bishop BARKS at China via media after Abbott’s “admiration” remark. They’re barking mad-we’re stuffed! #auspol]

    The story – she was interviewed by Fairfax. Essentially we’ve now got Abbott’s goodies (Japan) vs the baddies (China).

    [Australia will stand up to China to defend peace, liberal values and the rule of law, says Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.

    In the Coalition government’s clearest statement yet on how to handle China, Ms Bishop said it had been a mistake for previous governments to avoid speaking about China for fear of causing offence.

    “China doesn’t respect weakness,” Ms Bishop told Fairfax Media, marking a break from the policies of previous governments whose reticence, she said, had only caused confusion.

    Ms Bishop said the experience in November of speaking out against China’s unilateral declaration of an Air Defence Information Zone – which led to the Chinese foreign minister famously tearing strips off her in Beijing with cameras rolling – had fortified her view that it was better to be frank than misunderstood.]


  41. guytaur

    Reply should be good

    “@lyndalcurtis: Sen. McDonald accused Sen. Wong of making imputations against Senators and the PM.”

  42. rossmcg


    I caught a glimpse on news of Abbott in the Pilbara last night . That walk is a worry. The arms don’t seem to move in synch. He strikes me as a man in a state of perpetual nervousness.

  43. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: There are climate change protesters in the public gallery – applauded by Greens Senators”

  44. guytaur

    “@political_alert: Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek will hold a short doorstop in Sydney at 11.15am to discuss comments by the Foreign Minister #auspol”

  45. guytaur

    “@danielhurstbne: Govt carbon urgency motion set to pass with only Madigan & Xenophon voting against the gag. Other six crossbenchers on govt side of division”

  46. guytaur

    @SenatorLudlam: final #senate vote on the carbon price will be put at 1150am – http://t.co/BgKyjXaF5O #yourchoiceourfuture

  47. guytaur

    “@political_alert: Plibersek presser revised to 11.45am in Sydney #auspol”

  48. victoria

    Fran kelly was just on ABC774. Shorter. Abbott is doing okay balancing relationships with japan and China.


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