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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 17, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

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2046 comments

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Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Qld councils which were quick to pass on the carbon tax to ratepayers were now baulking at handing the money back.

In 2012-13 Brisbane City Council said the tax was responsible for about $22 on the average bill; Ipswich City Council said it accounted for about $30 a year; and Redland City Council said it was a minimum of $17.50. This year, Gold Coast City Council said it was worth $14.60 on its bill.

Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale said his city’s rates would not be reduced this year as a result of the tax being scrapped, despite council’s costs coming down as a result.

Then we get to old “absorbing costs” chestnut, we will be seeing a lot of this one. Woolies and Qantas have already pulled it out of the bag of tricks

a $17.50 hit to ratepayers from the carbon tax, Redland Mayor Karen Williams said her council had absorbed most of the extra costs for two years

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Is it just me or are others having trouble finding anything in the Murdoch press about the by-election?

pom
Guest

Putrid and the admin behind him is no different to other international war lords. They fail to do comprehensive What ifs before embarking on their games. In six months time the world will have moved on to more important money matters.

Raaraa
Guest

Another night, another CF of crazy comments.

To those who asked why Malaysian Airlines flew that route, here is an infograph showing the flights prior to the crash

comment image

I wonder if ICAO by now have shut that corridor above 32000ft, but I’m sure many commercial airlines have stopped flying there.

The BUK missiles is from the Soviet-era and I believe fly no faster than mach 3. The SR71 used to evade it by flying faster than it. Of course a commercial airliner has no hope against it. Neither did the pilots have seen it. It was probably fired from the rear of the aircraft, and the radar, meant for ground and weather, is facing the wrong way.

The BUK launchers on the other hand have the ability to target aircraft by radar so the operators are no ameteurs but identification of target aircraft requires the supplementary support of either visual or radio identification.

In 1988, the Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus 300 due to the misidentification of transponder codes and also miscommunication with the aircraft. Having identified the aircraft as “unindentified Iranian aircraft” flying at 350 knots, the crew of the Iranian aircraft thought the Americans were referring to another Iranian aircraft in the area as they were actually flying at 300 knots.

This goes to show that even when competent crew was present and procedures followed, accidents happen.

Nevertheless, this doesn’t make the death of nearly 300 people any less tragic.

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1

Centre
Guest

B.C.

Yep, you could be spot on?

They should have used binoculars 😯

B.C.
Guest

Centre Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 12:58 am @ 2037
[I have arrived at a conclusion as to whom is to blame for bombing that Malaysian plane?

Putin.

Nobody else would have the guts to act without his authority to bring down a passenger plane. Putin would have their marbles on a plate 😎
]
That might be the case if we assume they knew that they were shooting at a passenger jet. However, the intercepts released by the Ukrainian Government suggests that they thought it was a Ukrainian military plane. They’ve already shot down a number of those. I doubt they obtained Putin’s authorisation for each of the previous cases.

All the indications seem to be that this was a massive cockup by the rebels.

Centre
Guest

deblonay

Firstly, some were quite intelligent. Much more in touch with reality than the many L-OO-NS here.

Secondly, they wouldn’t have had a clue or give a rats about some irrelevant local election somewhere or other.

Hilarious, the Greenies are pleased with a performance in a barrier trial and they think they’re on track to get into government.

Peak Puny, not long now 😎

Centre
Guest

I have arrived at a conclusion as to whom is to blame for bombing that Malaysian plane?

Putin.

Nobody else would have the guts to act without his authority to bring down a passenger plane. Putin would have their marbles on a plate 😎

deblonay
Guest

2035
))))))))Centre

tbey seem easily amused

Qhat did they think of great (3% swing) to the Greens in Gland today…have a laugh did they ?

Centre
Guest

Just got home from a 50th b’day party. It was great to see many from family and friends and yes, we spoke heaps about politics which I think can give me some sort of guide as to how the electorate in general may be thinking.

The following were my findings:

1. They all thought it was hilarious when I referred to Abbott as the Monkey.

2. They thought the carbon tax beat up was all a load of shit.

3. They all thought that the Greens are lunatics, yes, some chuckles when I referred to them as the Full Mooners.

4. Guess what, they all, every one, likes Clive Palmer. Main reason given….they like the way he tells others off.

So there you have it!

Focus group done 😎

guytaur
Guest

Davidwh

I want the LNP to lose government. It will demonstrate that the tough budget in the first year and then electoral bribes in the election year do not work any more.

davidwh
Guest

Bugger Bleijie is in one of the safest seats. No chance of him losing.

davidwh
Guest

Anyway regardless of who wins next year I think we will have a new premier. I can’t see Newman holding Ashgrove if he is still premier leading into the election. Hopefully the A-G will lose his seat as well.

bemused
Guest

davidwh@2029

Bemused I’ll wait and see how many of the old Labor team get pre-selected before getting serious. Fraser may make a return yet.

Fraser is an idiot. He should go join the LNP where he would have plenty of company.

slothy
Guest

psyclaw @ 2019

[Not if they’re rank amateurs, recent recruits, or ill disciplined volunteers tending to rabble, even allowing your view that the two varieties of planes are distinguishable by sight at 33k feet even by lay persons.]

I doubt that these were rank amateurs. Despite the claims made in the article Leroy Lynch links to below, I do not think the local milkmen were operating the equipment. It would require more experience than that to operate the 3 vehicle system, according to some reports about 6 months training.

Even if it can’t discriminate between aircraft on size, the altitude and especially speed of MH17 should have alerted the crew that the target wasn’t a AN-26.

davidwh
Guest

Bemused I’ll wait and see how many of the old Labor team get pre-selected before getting serious. Fraser may make a return yet.

silmaj
Guest

2018
Yes that tweet would gel with the other report. These are unlikely to be people that Russia will be able to stand behind.

bemused
Guest

davidwh@2026

Not a cop out. I still remember well the previous government and they deserve more than one term in opposition.

Well Bligh and much of her cabinet is gone, including that arrogant twerp she had as a treasurer.

I kinda think the point has been made.

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