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Queensland Politics

Jul 23, 2014

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove

In the wake of the Stafford by-election fiasco, a ReachTEL poll finds Campbell Newman down but maybe not quite out as he girds himself for the contest in his neighbouring electorate of Ashgrove.

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A ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted last night for the Seven Network, encompassing what for a state electorate poll is a pretty large sample of 805, finds Campbell Newman trailing 53-47 on two-party preferred in his Brisbane electorate of Ashgrove – a swing approaching 9% off the 2012 state election, but a one-point improvement for Newman on the last such poll conducted in March. The primary votes are 43.5% for Newman (51.8% at the election), 43.2% for an as yet unspecified Labor candidate (38.9% for defeated member Kate Jones in 2012), 7.8% for the Greens (9.2%) and a rather unimpressive 4.1% for Palmer United, which perhaps offers some insight on their reluctance to field a candidate at Saturday’s Stafford by-election. The ReachTEL poll also encompassed motivations for vote choice, preferred LNP leader (39.6% for Newman versus 25.8% for second-placed Lawrence Springborg), this week’s policy reversals, and whether the LNP deserves to be re-elected (52.1% no, 41.7% yes).

The impetus for this poll was of course the Stafford by-election, for which my paywalled post-match report for Crikey can be viewed here. We have also seen in the past few days a ReachTEL poll commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE: And now the WorkCover Protection Coalition releases another ReachTEL result, this one statewide from 1177 respondents on Monday night, showing the LNP on 37.4%, Labor on 34.6%, the Greens on 6.1%, the Palmer United Party on 13.4% and Katter’s Australian Party on 3.4%. The order of parties just listed is reflected in results to a second question on how committed respondents are to their vote choice, i.e. LNP voters most committed and Palmer United voters least committed. Other results that can be seen through the link relate to workers compensation, Crime and Corruption Commission appointments, bikie laws and whether the removal of Campbell Newman would influence likelihood to vote LNP (31.5% more likely, 24.2% less, 44.3% unchanged).

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