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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 24, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

This week's poll aggregate finds early signs of a shift in favour of Tony Abbott and the Coalition in the wake of the MH17 disaster.

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Three new polls this week provide an early indications of a slight revival in the Coalition’s fortunes after the MH17 disaster and, some might claim, the carbon tax repeal. However, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate result differs only slightly from the one I published a week ago, for two reasons. The first is that a data entry error led an undercooked Labor lead last week of 53.5-46.5, which should have been 54.1-45.9. The second is that this week’s polls only imperfectly capture the effect of a news event which Australia woke up to on Friday morning. The earliest of the three was Nielsen, conducted from Thursday to Saturday, which showed no change to the recent trend in having Labor leading 54-46. Then came this week’s Essential Research sample which was surveyed from Friday to Monday, and caused the fortnightly rolling average to move a point in the Coalition’s favour. Most timely of the three was Monday night’s ReachTEL poll, which was the Coalition’s best result from the pollster since late March. After a fairly flat period since the budget, this makes next week’s Newspoll of particular interest.

Going off a corrected result for last week, this week’s seat projection has the Coalition up one in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, but down one in Queensland. The last federal poll we will ever get from Nielsen provides this week’s only new contribution on leadership ratings, and it’s enough to produce an upward tick for Tony Abbott for the first time since the budget, and also to narrow the gap on preferred prime minister. Bill Shorten meanwhile maintains a slow descent that has been evident since a spike in the wake of the budget. Full results as always on the sidebar.

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967 comments

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geoffrey
Guest

bludgers

is it possible the incompetent punk abbott with his grandstanding over ukraine and slap at russia could provide a war in response.

he is wrecking the australian economy (talk to any retailer about when current decline began), he wants to wreck health, education, national and international climate measures – and now russia, always way above his weight

slothy
Guest
psyclaw @ 947 [He says that this is poisoning our society, just as happened in preWW2 Japan,] Wasn’t there a poll a week or so ago in which nearly 30% thought the government was still not being hard enough on asylum seekers? So the poisoning seems to be well under way with both the LNP and Labor complicit. I suspect this race to the bottom will only end when the international community steps in and things will get far, far worse before that happens. […One must be very apprehensive as to what actions Morriscum can conjure up and implement, to… Read more »
Rossmcg
Guest

Er, Nick Davies ….

Rossmcg
Guest

The guardian is serialising a new book on Murdoch by Nick Davis, the journalist who broke the phone hacking scandal wide open

First episode on their site,worth a read.

Bushfire Bill
Guest

He’s gone f**kin’ mad:

[PM Tony Abbott deploys troops to eastern Ukraine to protect Australian Federal Police officers
PRIME Minister Tony Abbott has ­confirmed troops will be deployed to eastern Ukraine to protect Australian Federal Police officers working on the crash site investigation.

The Saturday Telegraph understands they will be deployed through the ­United Arab Emirates, which was the operating base for Australian ­deployments to Afghanistan.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/pm-tony-abbott-deploys-troops-to-eastern-ukraine-to-protect-australian-federal-police-officers/story-fni0cx12-1227002084162 ]

And what’s with this “PM Tony Abbott” style splashed everywhere?

Bushfire Bill
Guest
Not sure if anyone’s made this point, but in Simon Benson’s story today in the Tele he said that Abbott had “stiffened Obama’s spine.” Being published in a Murdoch rag, written by a Murdoch hack, about how glorious and brave Tony Abbott really is… and having ample experience of Murdoch’s Fox News in the USA… Obama will put 2+2 together and get the picture: the coward Abbot heckles only from afar, plus has publicly, and rather seriously insulted the US President. Obama won’t give a rat’s arse that Abbott didn’t actually write the story, or make the “spine stiffening” claim… Read more »
Rossmcg
Guest

Ctar1

Turnbull is a puzzle. He obviously lacks Keating’s courage.

He also knows that the Tory ruling clique would rather be in opposition than turn to him.

paaptsef
Guest

[ Why doesn’t he just go a sit on the back-bench and see what happens? ]
Because he’s still as dumb as a box of hammers #utegate #rainman

CTar1
Guest

rossmcg – The one that gets me is Turnbull.

Why doesn’t he just go a sit on the back-bench and see what happens?

Rossmcg
Guest
Hockeys biography underlines just how unprepared the Tories were for government. They spent six years in opposition, the first three in denial and the second three screaming abuse, without doing any work on policy Then they found themselves in government. Their problems are exacerbated by the fact that even allowing for my bias, I have never seen a less talented cabinet in my 40 years as a voter. When you have people in important policy areas like Hockey, Pyne, Dutton, Cormann, Truss, Joyce … How do these people even get endorsed, let along elected, let alone elevated to the ministry… Read more »
CTar1
Guest

[Troy Buswell, former WA treasurer, agrees to pay for ministerial car damage]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-25/buswell-agrees-to-pay-for-ministerial-car-damage/5625570

Keyman
Guest

Dr Bonham,

Your inputs are one of the reasons I visit this site but disagree with you on Abbotts positives. Could I suggest, like the Daleks, Abbott has no empathy (sorry mercy) and no matter how programmed (sorry scripted) will fail when confronted with intelligence. But, like the Daleks, he may well be a negative ( well I guess not for the BBC) for some time yet.

CTar1
Guest

[Wikipedia blocks ‘disruptive’ page edits from US Congress]

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-28481876

paaptsef
Guest

[ I’m sure that can become the plot of a bad science fiction movie – “The Attack of the Radioactive Space Lizards” ]
staring with the rocket stage that ‘burned up’ over Australia..

CTar1
Guest

S777

[I’m sure that can become the plot of a bad science fiction movie ]

Right along the lines I was thinking – “They’ll come back as supergecko’s and wipe out life as we know it”.

Reptoids!

😀

guytaur
Guest

Oops sorry in regard to Abbott Government AS policy at 950.

I will say goodnight.

guytaur
Guest

Dramatically unravelled. Policy turnaround. Two phrases used in tomorrow’s Age

guytaur
Guest

Psyclaw

Its good Flanagan has made the list for that Man Booker prize

guytaur
Guest

@AgnessMack: Joe Hockey opens the book on a misfiring government @latingle unpaywalled. http://t.co/5jLdo5TBG1

BlindFreddy
Guest
Guytaur Snap. I was going to comment about Richard Flanagan but thought I’d wait till tomorrow. But since you started it now, here goes! 🙂 Flanagan’s book, Narrow Road to the North (aprox words) is about the Burma railroad, inspired by his dad’s involvement. He recently went to Japan and met one of the cruelest guards, “The Lizard”, now an old man. His conclusion was that the man was not evil; he was a product of evil. Flanagan then said that particular public figures in Japan had poisoned the society for decades before the war, and created the soldiers and… Read more »
Steve777
Guest

Satellite full of sexually experimental geckos adrift in space, Russia loses control of mission

I’m sure that can become the plot of a bad science fiction movie – “The Attack of the Radioactive Space Lizards”.

CTar1
Guest

Rossmore – Cormann just detailed, I guess, to try to fulfill a promise HoJo made to his mates in the Finance Industry.

Hopefully, absolutely none of it will get past the Senate.

Jolyon Wagg
Guest

And the Tigers cheat their way to a win with a coward’s punch.

Rossmore
Guest

Tony Abbott’s turn back the clocks government. Sleepwalking on cuban cigars and petty history wars while the country goes backwards.

Rossmore
Guest

CTari Cormann’s backslide on the FoFA reforms was a disgrace, but showed where the LNPs real interests lie.

pedant
Guest

Dee@ 910: Sounds like a case requiring the attention of the “Freedom Commissioner”.

CTar1
Guest

Rossmore

[that the Federal budget is a dismal failure.]

HoJo copping a flogging but no one mentions Cormann (he’s in the US).

Very strange that both would have O/S trips when they should he here trying to convince people that the ‘know’ what they’re doing. Clowns, both of them.

CTar1
Guest

!!!!

[Satellite full of sexually experimental geckos adrift in space, Russia loses control of mission ]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/russia-loses-control-of-satellite-full-of-geckos-9628002.html

guytaur
Guest

@peterjukes: Two public officials admit to misconduct over sale of stories to Sun and Mirror newspapers http://t.co/j8OWLOS9M2

Will this trigger US legal action?

Rossmore
Guest

In political terms, the most significant development of the week was the Press Gallery’s consensus view that the Federal budget is a dismal failure. Even the Oz concurred. That is a damning indictment for the LNP government.

guytaur
Guest

Richard Flanagan speaking sense on Lateline.

Even with his comments about Japan in WW2 and Australia with AS.

It starts with public figures making out some people are less and that anything is then justified.

CTar1
Guest

Darren – The Desktop/Laptop ABC Web takes notice of where you’re from. Possibly the ‘Ap’ version.

That the ‘black box’ has been found now story 3.

Who knows! (I could speculate that a cookie keeps track of what stories you read and serves and sorts based on that).

imacca
Guest

[ Re Slothy @925: the purpose of the Government’s asylum seeker policy is to trick racist bogans into voting for radical market reforms that will hurt them and their families. ]

[ Steve777 @ 929

Ah, okay. I’d thought Abbott’s and Morrison’s chest beating on the issue was a small dick syndrome thing. ]

Both make sense on the available evidence.

BlindFreddy
Guest

Bishop has now changed her lyrics.

The task at the crash site is now ” difficult” whereas yesterday it was “gruesome”.

Is it possible she is learning, or has there been a focus group and new instruction from the boss, Peta.

slothy
Guest

[Meanwhile, there has been another air disaster over Africa,]

Sailors say big waves come in threes. Let’s hope this is the last for a while.

slothy
Guest

Steve777 @ 929

Ah, okay. I’d thought Abbott’s and Morrison’s chest beating on the issue was a small dick syndrome thing.

guytaur
Guest

@MGliksmanMDPhD: .@LawyerAdamHouda I’m the child of #Holocaust survivors. Not in my name either, #Israel.

Steve777
Guest

Re Slothy @925: the purpose of the Government’s asylum seeker policy is to trick racist bogans into voting for radical market reforms that will hurt them and their families.

guytaur
Guest

@NUJofficial: Israeli forces must be held accountable for attacks on journalists in Gaza, says @IFJGlobal http://t.co/tcCv35G0Ov #media #unions @InfoPJS

CTar1
Guest

The three air accidents in close time proximity also got a mention on 24 during the day – they had someone on to discuss that more people have been killed so far this year on commercial passenger A/C than in all of last year (210 I think was last years number).

Darren Laver
Guest

CTar1

Interesting.

My ABC ap seems to have Morrison, MH17, a Qld Lib wanting to be Labor, Euthanisiaists killing kids, and an SA road rage case.

With Air Algérie buried under all that stuff.

slothy
Guest
The Age’s political editor give Morrison a serve Costly, cruel, futile: the price of Scott Morrison holding 157 asylum seekers on floating prison [Now answer the question: what more has the government achieved than if it had opted in the first instance for what Morrison calls the “backstop measure” of taking the asylum seekers to Christmas Island before consigning them to indefinite detention on Nauru or Manus Island? Would the deterrent have been any less? What drove this insanity is not difficult to fathom because Scott Morrison kept reminding us of it in the final week of Parliament, even as… Read more »
CTar1
Guest
Darren Laver
Guest

[Women who take the pill choose partners who share a similar genetic profile causing them to lose interest in sex and become more likely to be the victim of violent assault and murder.
It is just one of the unconventional theories of Dr Angela Lanfranchi, an American pro-life campaigner who also pushes the debunked link between abortion and breast cancer.
]

A little loony, but at the end of the day, condoms are best for both contraception and prevention of disease, with almost zero risk of side effects.

If it is not on, it is not on!

Darren Laver
Guest

[I am having a lovely stopover during me and my Mum’s trip to Victoria. I am staying with the wonderful PBer, Lizzie.
]

Yes, also pass my regards to Lizzie!

It is amazing you are having a mini tour of some of PB’s favourites in that part of the world, zoomster and Lizzie!

slothy
Guest
Ministers to join pro-lifer who believes the ‘pill kills’ at World Congress of Families [Women who take the pill choose partners who share a similar genetic profile causing them to lose interest in sex and become more likely to be the victim of violent assault and murder. It is just one of the unconventional theories of Dr Angela Lanfranchi, an American pro-life campaigner who also pushes the debunked link between abortion and breast cancer.] [Dr Lanfranchi is set to speak at next month’s “World Congress of Families” event in Melbourne where she will share the stage with federal Social Services… Read more »
Darren Laver
Guest

Meanwhile, there has been another air disaster over Africa, largely ignored by the Anglo-Saxon press.

France is sending troops into the crash site, which were already in Mali.

[Le Monde.fr – Vol AH 5017 : des soldats français arrivent sur la zone du crash

Les débris de l’appareil, avec 51 Français à bord, ont été identifiés au Mali. Il n’y aurait aucun survivant, selon le gouvernement, qui privilégie la piste des « conditions météorologiques ».

http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/07/25/l-epave-du-vol-ah-5017-d-air-algerie-a-ete-retrouvee-au-mali_4462551_3210.html
]

Darren Laver
Guest

Israel has a right to defend itself.

Islamic extremist terrorism is never ok and never justifiable.

victoria
Guest

Puffy

Pass on my regards to lizzie and your dear mum. 🙂

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