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Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

An uneventful weekly reading on voting intention from Essential Research, aside from a weak result for Palmer United, livened up a little by poor personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:

• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.

• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.

• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.

• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.

After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:

Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.

• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.

Finally, a couple of links worth noting:

• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.

• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.

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881 comments

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Sustainable future
Guest

Brent must be looking for a redundancy package – although I guess the lunar rights anger at Brandis probably saw an article mitchell would usually spike to get through.

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php#itm=taus%7Cnews%7Caus_homepage_content3_dinkus%7C2%7Cdinkus_headline%7Cstory%7CPM%20interrupted%20by%20protesters&itmt=1407478482595

Pyne is equally conceited – his effort on 7.30 this week where he basically said that critics needed to get pre-selected, elected and become education minister before their view had any legitimacy and he’d listen to them was astoundingly arrogant – reminded me of the Mitchell and Webb skits ‘and who has the captain’s hat?’ see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df-uemc-e3w

paaptsef
Guest

Davidwh, fair enough, cheeers

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #abbott, Farcebook Team Australia by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1qWYVJq

Norwester
Guest

Interesting Brian Loughnane email at ICAC.

Maybe his name won’t be mentioned again.

And speaking of our government, is this, or is this not, the most poorly informed, incompetant, ideologically driven, bigoted lot we have ever seen?

When the tradies start realising that Brandis is after their metadata, the libs are cactus.

Laocoon
Guest

PtMD

What is an optimist today? Counting down the next 27 months? 🙁

Sustainable future
Guest

I see Savva has taken up comedy

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/talentstarved-labor-must-expand-its-gene-pool/story-fnahw9xv-1227015926187#

anybody who thinks the LNP has a depth of talent compared to labor would be betting on Melbourne to win the premiership wouldn’t they?

you’d think a LNP supporter would not dare talk about ‘gene pools’ given some of the seemingly inbred upper class twats such as Downer and Pyne and back-block hillbillies such as Christenson (who looks as though he has a few spare chromosomes and recessive genes)

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Lacoon.
I see you are an optimist.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

thanks Davidwh

Laocoon
Guest

Here is a very clear explanation of meta-data that I suspect even George Brandis could understand (toward the latter part of the 1min:38 clip)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FRVvjGL2C0

I too wonder if GB has ever actually used the internet

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

But I come from a long line of wanderers who do not think they have any connection to anything by right of history. It could be a deficit but I tend to think it is a blessing.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

DTT
Well, I am an Aussie. Lines on the ground dividing people up into different countries is something I don’t get. I know it as a concept, but the reality of it surprises me when I encounter it. So the whole idea of some lines on a ME map having any meaning that people kill for and die for, makes no sense to me. Hence as I say, pox on both their houses.

I would leave Victor Harbor and move to FNQ. I am not that enamoured of any patch of dirt.

jules
Guest

DTT Your story aside – in some ways Australia is much like Israel – Israel in 150 years if it keeps up the genocide.

davidwh
Guest

2012 in QLD. Basically I have voted for a few political parties over 40+ years but more often Liberal than other parties. Personally I don’t believe in giving any political party 100% loyalty. I haven’t come across one who deserves that level of loyalty.

daretotread
Guest
Puff Here is the story: – But I am using adelaide and SA instead of Israel – and Abramist instead of Jewish to avaid racist connotations. It could have happened ie tracts of australia used for a Jewish homeland it was seriously discussed. In the early 20th Century the British`government handed over half of Adelaide and 1/3 of SA as a Abramist homeland. The existing residents (about 500,000) in were forced to leave. Some of the wealthier landowners (like the Downers were paid compensation, but most had to settle in temporary refugee accommodation in Victor Harbour. There was not enough… Read more »
paaptsef
Guest

How far back does your support go?

davidwh
Guest

Not much lately paaptsef. In fact it would be drawing a longbow to say they have my support at present.

paaptsef
Guest

davidwh as a supporter of the Liberal party can you outline what they have done to deserve your support?

davidwh
Guest

Some would say ignorant but magical.

Diogenes
Guest

Psyclaw

I couldn’t quite understand how BC got done for murder if the jury wasn’t even told that she was murdered. I would have thought that was a prerequisite.

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