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Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

An uneventful weekly reading on voting intention from Essential Research, aside from a weak result for Palmer United, livened up a little by poor personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

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The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:

• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.

• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.

• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.

• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.

After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:

Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.

• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.

Finally, a couple of links worth noting:

• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.

• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.

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881 comments

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Sustainable future
Guest

Brent must be looking for a redundancy package – although I guess the lunar rights anger at Brandis probably saw an article mitchell would usually spike to get through.

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php#itm=taus%7Cnews%7Caus_homepage_content3_dinkus%7C2%7Cdinkus_headline%7Cstory%7CPM%20interrupted%20by%20protesters&itmt=1407478482595

Pyne is equally conceited – his effort on 7.30 this week where he basically said that critics needed to get pre-selected, elected and become education minister before their view had any legitimacy and he’d listen to them was astoundingly arrogant – reminded me of the Mitchell and Webb skits ‘and who has the captain’s hat?’ see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df-uemc-e3w

paaptsef
Guest

Davidwh, fair enough, cheeers

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #abbott, Farcebook Team Australia by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1qWYVJq

Norwester
Guest

Interesting Brian Loughnane email at ICAC.

Maybe his name won’t be mentioned again.

And speaking of our government, is this, or is this not, the most poorly informed, incompetant, ideologically driven, bigoted lot we have ever seen?

When the tradies start realising that Brandis is after their metadata, the libs are cactus.

Laocoon
Guest

PtMD

What is an optimist today? Counting down the next 27 months? 🙁

Sustainable future
Guest

I see Savva has taken up comedy

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/talentstarved-labor-must-expand-its-gene-pool/story-fnahw9xv-1227015926187#

anybody who thinks the LNP has a depth of talent compared to labor would be betting on Melbourne to win the premiership wouldn’t they?

you’d think a LNP supporter would not dare talk about ‘gene pools’ given some of the seemingly inbred upper class twats such as Downer and Pyne and back-block hillbillies such as Christenson (who looks as though he has a few spare chromosomes and recessive genes)

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Lacoon.
I see you are an optimist.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

thanks Davidwh

Laocoon
Guest

Here is a very clear explanation of meta-data that I suspect even George Brandis could understand (toward the latter part of the 1min:38 clip)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FRVvjGL2C0

I too wonder if GB has ever actually used the internet

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

But I come from a long line of wanderers who do not think they have any connection to anything by right of history. It could be a deficit but I tend to think it is a blessing.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

DTT
Well, I am an Aussie. Lines on the ground dividing people up into different countries is something I don’t get. I know it as a concept, but the reality of it surprises me when I encounter it. So the whole idea of some lines on a ME map having any meaning that people kill for and die for, makes no sense to me. Hence as I say, pox on both their houses.

I would leave Victor Harbor and move to FNQ. I am not that enamoured of any patch of dirt.

jules
Guest

DTT Your story aside – in some ways Australia is much like Israel – Israel in 150 years if it keeps up the genocide.

davidwh
Guest

2012 in QLD. Basically I have voted for a few political parties over 40+ years but more often Liberal than other parties. Personally I don’t believe in giving any political party 100% loyalty. I haven’t come across one who deserves that level of loyalty.

daretotread
Guest
Puff Here is the story: – But I am using adelaide and SA instead of Israel – and Abramist instead of Jewish to avaid racist connotations. It could have happened ie tracts of australia used for a Jewish homeland it was seriously discussed. In the early 20th Century the British`government handed over half of Adelaide and 1/3 of SA as a Abramist homeland. The existing residents (about 500,000) in were forced to leave. Some of the wealthier landowners (like the Downers were paid compensation, but most had to settle in temporary refugee accommodation in Victor Harbour. There was not enough… Read more »
paaptsef
Guest

How far back does your support go?

davidwh
Guest

Not much lately paaptsef. In fact it would be drawing a longbow to say they have my support at present.

paaptsef
Guest

davidwh as a supporter of the Liberal party can you outline what they have done to deserve your support?

davidwh
Guest

Some would say ignorant but magical.

Diogenes
Guest

Psyclaw

I couldn’t quite understand how BC got done for murder if the jury wasn’t even told that she was murdered. I would have thought that was a prerequisite.

davidwh
Guest

Puff you may not know much but you are a very wise dragon 🙂

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Anyway, that is all I am going to say on the subject. It sickens me.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I don’t think there will be progress until people stop assigning victim/persecutor/rescuer roles to the players in this conflict. Both sides are fulfilling all these roles, not just those held in their own and their supporters minds.

Like I said, all sides deserve the opprobrium for not working this out decades ago. To contemplate killing innocent civilians including kids, which both sides have done, for some nationalistic cause is disgusting. I repeat: a pox on both their Houses.

jules
Guest

What happened at Bondi is terrible.

There has always been real anti-semitism* in Australia. Its never gone away, it just isn’t that comfortable showing its face since WW2. Scratch most of those Muslim hating anglos hard enough tho and you’ll find they don’t like Jews much either.

*As opposed to legitimate criticism of Israel, which isn’t.

bemused
Guest

Goodnight all.

bemused
Guest

Puff, the Magic Dragon.@853

bemused,
I could learn everything there is to learn about it, and I would still know bugger all. Other than adults are killing kids because both sets of adults think their cause is more important than the kids getting killed. Pox on both their Houses.

The demographics tell a fairly stark story.

The population of Palestine got elbowed aside to provide a ‘Jewish Homeland’ largely due to European guilt over the holocaust.

The mad extremists among Israelis want the Palestinians to simply disappear.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Like in that Gandhi movie.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I don’t give a damn for ratios. I made it clear what I think of them both. If I was Queen Solomon or whomever, I would make each side swap kids and bring the kids up in their natural parents religion.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

bemused,
I could learn everything there is to learn about it, and I would still know bugger all. Other than adults are killing kids because both sets of adults think their cause is more important than the kids getting killed. Pox on both their Houses.

daretotread
Guest

imacca

They say that abused people become abusers and so it now seems of Israel.

daretotread
Guest

Puff

I find statements like “all the killing” a bit murdoch press biased.

It seems to me it is palestinians who do the dying by a ratio of 2000/60 ie 100 dead palestinians for every 3 Isrealis. And that is before we count the thousands who will surely die of gastro without sanitation or refrigeration after power station destroyed.

imacca
Guest

[ It does seem outrageous. I will see how the rest of the msm reports this incident. ]

So outrageous, and in the Daily Telegraph, that i will await confirmation that it actually happened from other sources before commenting. 🙁

[ But hey, what would she know? She is only a survivor of the Warsaw Ghetto. ]

That’s one of the weird things about the Gaza / Israeli thing. With the restrictions on movement and blockade its effectively the Gaza Ghetto. How did a country like Israel come to be keepers of a place like that??

victoria
Guest

Night all

bemused
Guest

Puff, the Magic Dragon.@846

What I know about the Israel/Palestine can be written on the back of an envelope (small), but my opinion is that the whole lot make me sick. As far as I can see there will be no stop to the killing of civilians, including kids, for many decades. When both sides have had their fill of death, maybe they will stop. But it does not really matter what i think, anyway. Ir has no impact on anything.

Puffy, you will get a little bit of background here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Palestine

bemused
Guest

victoria@842

Puffy

It does seem outrageous. I will see how the rest of the msm reports this incident.

It is indeed outrageous. Australians of any religious/cultural/ethnic background should not be subjected to such behaviour and the perpetrators punished to the full extent of the law.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

What I know about the Israel/Palestine can be written on the back of an envelope (small), but my opinion is that the whole lot make me sick. As far as I can see there will be no stop to the killing of civilians, including kids, for many decades. When both sides have had their fill of death, maybe they will stop. But it does not really matter what i think, anyway. Ir has no impact on anything.

bemused
Guest

jules@840

It seems lots of posters here are quite happy to continue pretending terrorism is resistance. It’s not…


Wait a minute … what?

Terrorism is resistance. The only difference is in the eye of the beholder.

Seems the pretenders include this old Jew. http://www.richardsilverstein.com/2013/04/09/last-of-warsaw-ghetto-survivors-calls-for-rebellion-against-israeli-occupation/

But hey, what would she know? She is only a survivor of the Warsaw Ghetto.

Sorry Mick, her cred is very high, yours is zero.

BlindFreddy
Guest
Diogenes Not sure of the specifics of why that evidence was not allowed in Baden-Clay. But the judge certainly decided that it would not be helpful to the jury’s task, and probably would have been unhelpful. But to speculate as an example only, it could have been something to do with the continuity of evidence ie that the evidence was or was not treated securely and appropriately at all times. Let’s say Mrs B-C’s body met with an accident at some stage after being found. This could lead to unhelpful discussions as to what specifically were the pre and post-mortem… Read more »
StephenD
Guest
Mick77: I honestly can’t comprehend how you can fail to see the outrageous bias of your favourite Israeli media outlets. The very coverage you quoted from the Jerusalem Post is quite clearly trying to demonise Palestinians – to portray them as inhuman monsters – yet you seem to believe that it’s a true account of the “real existential threat” faced by Israel. This is exactly the same thing as the Murdoch media trotting out the absurd lies of Scott Morrison as he tries to convince Australia at large that refugees are the real enemy. Israel holds the economic and military… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Puffy

It does seem outrageous. I will see how the rest of the msm reports this incident.

Player One
Guest

victoria@837

Goodness me

JEWISH schools are on high alert after eight drunken men stormed a school bus and threatened to cut Jewish children’s throats this afternoon.

The men allegedly boarded the bus which was carrying children from Mount Sinai, Mariah and Emanuel kindergarten in Bondi.

One witness said her three daughters aged eight, 10 and 12 on the bus were traumatised.

“The bus driver opened the doors for these strange men and allowed them on to torment the kids,” Jackie Blackburn said.


http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/bondi-racist-bus-attack-jewish-schools-on-alert-after-eight-men-threaten-to-cut-schoolkids-throats/story-fni0cx4q-1227015860427?nk=13a963b2ad9512360c70572360098c8d

Where the Fuck is Mick77 when you really need him?

jules
Guest

[It seems lots of posters here are quite happy to continue pretending terrorism is resistance. It’s not…]

Wait a minute … what?

Terrorism is resistance. The only difference is in the eye of the beholder.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Victoria,
That is outrageous. What the hell is the matter with people? Has the world gone completely mad?

paaptsef
Guest

[ although I rejoice as this government stumbles from one fuck up to the next, I can’t help thinking they look a lot like the first year of Howard in 1996/97. The polls now are very winnable for Abbott – he’ll pick his moment in 2016, and the murdoch media will contrive an emergency for him to do his Very Very Serious Statesman posturing. ]
Lets hope you aren’t the only person who realises this incompetent joke of a government is an incompetent joke of a government

victoria
Guest

Goodness me

[JEWISH schools are on high alert after eight drunken men stormed a school bus and threatened to cut Jewish children’s throats this afternoon.

The men allegedly boarded the bus which was carrying children from Mount Sinai, Mariah and Emanuel kindergarten in Bondi.

One witness said her three daughters aged eight, 10 and 12 on the bus were traumatised.

“The bus driver opened the doors for these strange men and allowed them on to torment the kids,” Jackie Blackburn said.]

http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/bondi-racist-bus-attack-jewish-schools-on-alert-after-eight-men-threaten-to-cut-schoolkids-throats/story-fni0cx4q-1227015860427?nk=13a963b2ad9512360c70572360098c8d

Sustainable future
Guest

although I rejoice as this government stumbles from one fuck up to the next, I can’t help thinking they look a lot like the first year of Howard in 1996/97. The polls now are very winnable for Abbott – he’ll pick his moment in 2016, and the murdoch media will contrive an emergency for him to do his Very Very Serious Statesman posturing.

BlindFreddy
Guest
Mick 77 re What you asked Diogenes to tell, way back. I guess a poor memory is a necessary bit of equipment for you. 1. You argued that the evidence was not enough to convict Baden-Clay 2. You listed certain questions that B-C “should’ve been asked. 3. I asked you how you knew which questions were not asked. 4. You disappeared for 3 weeks or so without answering 5. Today you still have not answered, preferring to play dumb about your earlier posts Please don’t concern yourself about whether or not I am “literate”. Better to concentrate on some simple… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
Margo Kingston ‏@margokingston1 11h

.@MikeCarlton01 same happened to me, Mike. Pushed out for political reasons. Anything goes on the Right while progressives are shut down.

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Mick77

Your characterisation of people who disagree with you politically as ‘mentally ill’ is roughly as stupid as it is offensive. Not to mention false.

That said, I agree with you in that PB has turned into an anti-Israel echo chamber lately. It seems lots of posters here are quite happy to continue pretending terrorism is resistance. It’s not, and Hamas does Palestine far more harm than good.

paaptsef
Guest

[ I know I signed out but that link to the Mosul Xtians from swamprat @ 813 was just heartbreaking. ]
Please tell us about how you and George W expected everything to be wonderful for Christians in Iraq

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